Friday, December 30, 2011

1477.txt

cc: Stephan Bojinski <SBojinskiatXYZxyz.int>, Adrian.SimmonsatXYZxyzwf.int
date: Tue Apr 15 09:56:20 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: AOPC-XIV
to: D.E.HarrisonatXYZxyza.gov

Ed,
Hope Nick sends something before next week.
When the Nature paper comes out we will be doing a very carefully
crafted press release - about the 1940s SSTs.
I can add more in on paleo if you want. The ice core isotopes vs local
and more distant temperatures work is fairly self contained. The usefulness of
corals improves also with cross-dating and they would benefit from looking
further into exactly what the corals respond to. All these sorts of analyses
are pretty standard stuff in dendrocliamtology.
For your flight over I'll attach a submitted paper on this and another
one that has just come out on AD 536. The latter year is allegedly the
year Arthur died, and the poor harvests in Europe at the time could have
led to the Justinian Plague!
There is also some more work in submission that shows that massive
volcanic eruptions changes the odds in favour of El Nino's - both modelling
and observational. Also short (50-100 year bits) coral sequences from the
period 1000-1300 suggest that La Nina was more common than today during
the MWP. They also show that El Nino was more frequent later during the LIA.
All a bit counter-intuitive initially, but when you put the volcanic record up
against longer-term ENSO measures you begin to see some links....
Cheers
Phil
At 19:06 14/04/2008, ed harrison wrote:

I'd really love to hear about the ice core results, Phil!
It seems that the paleo data are getting more and more emphasis....
Am delighted to have you report your take on the ICOADS issues.
Nick Rayner has promised a report on the SST/Sea Ice WG, but haven't got anything from
her yet...so cannot give perspective on what she'll send.
The much-increased drifting buoy data are a real issue at the 0.1C level for global
ocean analyses. They are showing gratifyingly good buoy/buoy comparisons, I'm told.
But they don't measure what ship intakes measure, to be sure.
best. ed
Phil Jones wrote:

Stephan,

I realize I've not sent any reports for the meeting. I'm scheduled to give
something for paleo at some point. I'm in Vienna at EGU from Wednesday, so
will prepare something.
I have noticed in the agenda that I can respond to a few of the action points. No
need to alter agenda at this stage.
1. Surface Water Vapour - I can find a few ppt of about 5-10 minutes on this new
dataset.
2. The effect of changes to the SST data in the 1940s. A paper in Nature will appear
on this in June/July in Nature. This relates to the changing mix of obs that go into
ICOADS (so a bit like the changes in XBTs that will likely alter the OHC curve).
3. Related to this there are possible changes in SSTs going on now as we have
a much greater percentage of bouy as opposed to ship SST data.
These 2 items best with whatever Ed says - say 10-15 mins. The surface water vapour
dataset best at this point also, as the issues that relate to it are more marine
related.
4. Some recent paleo advances - improved understanding of Greenland Ice Cores.
This item only if there is time - say 10-15 mins.
See you all Monday. I'll be there for the AGG in the morning.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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