Friday, December 30, 2011


date: Thu, 19 Mar 2009 18:14:47 +0000
from: Rachel Warren <>
subject: AVOID WS1 deliverable: Literature review
to: Chris Hope <>, "Jesse O'Hanley" <>, Lowe Jason <>, "Lowe, Jason" <>, Lynn Dicks <>, Maria Noguer <>, Nigel Arnell <>, Pamela Berry <>, Robert Nicholls <>, Robin Hankin <>, Santiago de la Nava Santos <>, Sarah Raper <>, Serban Scrieciu <>, Tim Osborn <>, "Van Der Linden, Paul" <>

Dear AVOID-WS1-ers

Followng the Copenhagen science conference it is not time to initiate our work on the
literature review of new science

for AVOID WS1.

1. This message concerns plans for delivering our literature review to DECC by mid-May.
We need to deliver a SHORT report

(a few pp). Each person involved should provide a SHORT (half page) summary of the

2. We are not each writing a new IPCC chapter, nor are we collectively writing an IPCC
chapter. Rather, imagine that the WGII SPM has to be updated in the light of the new
literature. What changes would we make to it? In each case we need to search and read
literature with a view to finding out whether the new work is consistent with IPCC AR4, or
does it show

that we have over/underestimated impacts in AR4? Have any new threats been uncovered? We
do NOT need to repeat what is the AR4 working group II report. If you do not have a copy
of that it may be found in the IPCC website.

When writing, report inferences from the PUBLISHED PEER_REVIEWED literature separate
from inferences from UNPUBLISHED work which is either not perr-reviewed or still going
through the peer-review process.

3. Envisaged sections in the report:

- observed changes in climate

- observed changes in impacts on natural and human systems

- attribution of climate change, extreme weather and climate impacts to anthropogenic

- new understanding on economics of mitigation

- new understanding on the damage costs of climate change impacts

- impacts on tipping points in the earth system

- extreme weather

- ocean acidification

- impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems

- impacts on agriculture & food security

- impacts on water stress

- impacts on human health

- impacts on coasts

- impacts on cities/industries

As we do not have experts on impacts in particular regions in the consortium, I would
instead suggest that when writing each person take to care to mention any particular
regions stand out as being more vulnerable than was thought in AR4.


Stage 1: I have set a deadline of Easter for stage 1, which is assembling pdfs of
literature to be included (and where

that is not possible, abstracts) in a directory on our closed AVOID-WS1 website.

Stage 2: After Easter we have a few weeks to read the references in our given subject area
and write review.


Please can the following people begin now to search for litearture and start save pdfs to
their pcs:

I will send round instructions on how to place these on the web site later.

Pdfs should be uploaded by Easter, so you should all complete literature searching process
by then.

Please save GREY or UNPUBLISHED data separately.

The Copenhagen conference abstracts, which I trust you all have access to , will be an
important source.

Rachel: observed impacts, and impacts of ocean acidification on marine systems

Jesse, Pam: biodiversity

Nigel/QUEST GSI: hydrology, water stress, flooding

Nigel: Can QUEST-GSI cover the recent agricutural impact literature?

Lynn Dicks/Robin/Serban: economics of mitigation (costs, policies, etc) focusing on
non-equilibrium approaches

Nigel/Lynn: If Nigel is able to provide health input, please do so, if not, I suggest that
Lynn follows this issue.

Chris Hope: economics of mitigation (costs/policies) focusing on equilibrium approaches and
damage costs

I have asked Jason Lowe to assemble post IPCC AR4 work from the Hadley Centre, on this

by next Friday March 27th. Since Hadley Centre work may relate strongly to other impacts

areas, I would suggest that the following people add their search results to the database

this date, to avoid unnecessary duplication.

Robert Nicholls (with Jason) - sea level rise, coasts

Jason Lowe, Sarah Raper and Tim Osborn - any non-Hadley WG1 work dividing as follows:

Jason: tipping points, carbon cycle, reversibility of climate change, attribution, ocean

any new insights from palaeoclimatic work

Tim: downscaling issues, projection of drought

Sarah: I understand that you are ill, so I have not allocated you a task, but if you feel

enough please tell us about any literature you know of that we may have missed.

Most of the work will involve finding and reading the litearture, and our reaching a
considered view based upon that,

not the final writing.



Dr Rachel Warren
NERC Advanced Research Fellow
Tyndall Centre
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ
Telephone 01603 593912
Fax 01603 593901
E-mail [1]

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