Monday, January 16, 2012


date: Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:00:57 +0100
from: "Sarah Raper" <>
subject: Re: sea level from AR4 models
to: "Tim Osborn" <>

Dear Tim,

Oh, is that all....

It is because even Malte's latest MAGICC 6.0 does not do well expansion well, that I am now looking at it with a view to getting
it good (and writing a paper). I think it is doable eventually, however, and you are welcome to help if you like. It will involve
analysing the 3-D ocean data.

I do have Jonathan's AOGCM data, that is what I was plotting in plot I left on your desk. It is also he that you should approach
for AR4 total SLR - but I am not sure that he ever did timeseries, I dimly remember it was just for a couple of future years (time
snaps). All available details (clues) are in the appendix you mention. Since SLR projections are in my opinion without much
foundation you could either 1) stick strictly to IPCC (low estimate no dynamics for icesheets) 2) go with Ramsdorf - larger
estimate based just on surface temps 3) or update of Ramsdorf - I forget author.

How come you promised such a thing?

Best, S

Dr Sarah Raper
Senior Research Fellow
Centre for Air Transport and the Environment (CATE)
Manchester Metropolitan University
Faculty of Science & Engineering
John Dalton East Building
Chester Street
Manchester M1 5GD
United Kingdom

+44(0)161 2471596

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>>> Tim Osborn <> 20/10/2008 16:27 >>>
Hi Sarah,

you know I'm using global-mean temperature changes from MAGICC-AR4
emulations of the 19 AR4 GCMs to drive my pattern scaling in ClimGen?

Well, we also need to information about associated sea level
rise. For thermal expansion, there is also MAGICC output. But do
you consider these to be too poor to use?

If you think they're not good enough, then perhaps I can get hold of
the data actually calculated from the AR4 GCMs for thermal expansion
(global means) -- i.e. those plotted in fig. 10.31 which I've
attached here. Who would I ask for those data? Jonathan Gregory?

Finally, is there any data for the ice-melt component of SLR? Either
from your existing model (i.e. not from post-AR4 work) or from the
sensitivity & scaling relationships reported in AR4 (e.g. Appendix 10.A.2/3)?

Many thanks for any suggestions!



P.S. Did you get my email about an exam question? Keith said you'd
be delighted to help! ;-)

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