Monday, January 16, 2012


cc: Tom Crowley <>,, "raymond s. bradley" <>,, Eric Steig <>,,,, William Connelley <>,,
date: Thu, 04 Jan 2007 13:29:57 -0700
from: Caspar Ammann <>
subject: Re: not so fast - an update
to: Phil Jones <>

Gribbin is probably a dead end. Check out the graph: turns out to be
Dansgaards numbers from Greenland...
the text talks about the warmth in Europe (1000-1300) with mild, wet
winters. Then it goes on that one can use the point observations from
historical documents to fill in some details quote: OF ONE OF THE MOST
to discuss briefly the delta-18-O technique, and say WILLI DANSGAARD
have been able to uncover 1420 years of history (which is the Crete
core, I believe)
The shape is different than the graph we are trying to get at. The best
I find is Central England by H.H.

Phil Jones wrote:
> Dear All,
> The net is closing...
> National Research Council, US Committee for the Global Atmospheric
> Research Program, Understanding Climatic Change: A Program for Action,
> National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, (1975), appendix A.
> This book (Fig A2b) has the same figure as Imbrie/Imbrie. It is rotated.
> It also has the same concept of the IPCC 1990 Figure, changes on
> various timescales - all rotated. Loads of Lamb diagrams I have
> seen countless times before.
> This book also talks about the impending cooling.....
> John Mitchell also thought the figure is in a book by Gribbin
> called '1982 CO2 Review". Anyone recall that one. This isn't
> in the CRU Library nor UEA's.
> The direct source of the IPCC diagram is the UK Dept of Environment
> document from 1989 which is being posted to me. It though has
> a source, which isn't in the document. John and Geoff Jenkins
> wrote it though. It is possible that just the last millennium panel
> was from this source and the others from this 1975 source.
> Cheers
> Phil
> Dear All (Tom is off to Texas),
> David Warrilow has found the said report. A photocopy is being
> posted
> to me, and two others have been asked if they know more about how
> it was arrived at.
> I'll report more when I get news.
> Phil
> Tom,
> Here's a reply from David Warrilow (below). I still think it is
> in a UK Dept of the Environment report from 1988/89, as does
> Chris Folland, so have asked him to think a little more.
> I've looked at the 1979 edition, and Figure 45 is the one.
> It has a curve, but with the 20th century warmer than the
> MWP!! It is said to be based on Lamb (1969). This is a
> chapter in the World Survey of Climatology Series
> edited by Landsberg. I can't see how you can adapt anything
> from this. Hubert's chapter has lots of detail, many figures
> which have lines with the phrase 'analyst's opinion' - one
> of his favourite terms for things he made up. If it is an
> adaptation, then it comes from Hubert's ideas about
> England and NW Europe, because these are the curves
> in the 1969 chapter.
> Anyone have the 1986 edition, to see if this curve got changed?
> The 1986 date is about right for being in the document I recall
> seeing. Some of you who've seen my room, will be saying if I had
> a better filing system, then I would be able to find it. Despite keeping
> most things I can't find this !
> By the way, it is GREAT PITY, the First IPCC report didn't use
> Fig 45. We'd all be very happy and the skeptics wouldn't be going
> on about what came out in 1990.
> Attached is the Met Office forecast for 2007. It seems that I'm
> getting
> the credit for this in the media. All I did was talk to the
> Independent about
> what I thought 2007 had in store weatherwise. With an El Nino going on,
> I thought it might be a record and just trotted off the typical
> things that happen
> in El Nino years.
> Cheers
> Phil
> Phil,
> I can't be sure but I think the original diagram is from Imbrie and
> Imbrie :
> Imbrie, John and Katherine Palmer Imbrie. Ice ages: Solving the
> Mystery. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1979,
> 1986 (reprint). ISBN 0-89490-020-X; ISBN 0-89490-015-3; ISBN
> 0-674-44075-7. p. 25
> You may have it in your library. I am afraid I don't have it to hand,
> David
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Caspar M. Ammann
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology
1850 Table Mesa Drive
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
email: tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348


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