Monday, January 16, 2012

1994.txt

cc: Tom Crowley <tcrowleyatXYZxyze.edu>, mannatXYZxyz.edu, "raymond s. bradley" <rbradleyatXYZxyz.umass.edu>, rahmstorfatXYZxyzan-klima.de, Eric Steig <steigatXYZxyz.washington.edu>, gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov, rasmus.benestad@physics.org, garidelatXYZxyzine.rutgers.edu, William Connelley <wmconnolley@gmail.com>, d-archeratXYZxyzicago.edu, rtp1atXYZxyzsci.uchicago.edu
date: Thu, 04 Jan 2007 13:29:57 -0700
from: Caspar Ammann <ammannatXYZxyzr.edu>
subject: Re: not so fast - an update
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

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Phil,
Gribbin is probably a dead end. Check out the graph: turns out to be
Dansgaards numbers from Greenland...
the text talks about the warmth in Europe (1000-1300) with mild, wet
winters. Then it goes on that one can use the point observations from
historical documents to fill in some details quote: OF ONE OF THE MOST
IMPORTANT TECHNIQUES FOR UNRAVELING PAST CLIMATIC CHANGES, THE STUDY OF
OXYGEN ISOTOPES LOCKED UP AS ICE IN THE GREENLAND ICE CAP. Then it goes
to discuss briefly the delta-18-O technique, and say WILLI DANSGAARD
have been able to uncover 1420 years of history (which is the Crete
core, I believe)
The shape is different than the graph we are trying to get at. The best
I find is Central England by H.H.
Caspar

Phil Jones wrote:
>
> Dear All,
> The net is closing...
>
> National Research Council, US Committee for the Global Atmospheric
> Research Program, Understanding Climatic Change: A Program for Action,
> National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, (1975), appendix A.
>
> This book (Fig A2b) has the same figure as Imbrie/Imbrie. It is rotated.
> It also has the same concept of the IPCC 1990 Figure, changes on
> various timescales - all rotated. Loads of Lamb diagrams I have
> seen countless times before.
>
> This book also talks about the impending cooling.....
>
> John Mitchell also thought the figure is in a book by Gribbin
> called '1982 CO2 Review". Anyone recall that one. This isn't
> in the CRU Library nor UEA's.
>
> The direct source of the IPCC diagram is the UK Dept of Environment
> document from 1989 which is being posted to me. It though has
> a source, which isn't in the document. John and Geoff Jenkins
> wrote it though. It is possible that just the last millennium panel
> was from this source and the others from this 1975 source.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
>
>
>
> Dear All (Tom is off to Texas),
> David Warrilow has found the said report. A photocopy is being
> posted
> to me, and two others have been asked if they know more about how
> it was arrived at.
>
> I'll report more when I get news.
>
> Phil
>
> Tom,
> Here's a reply from David Warrilow (below). I still think it is
> in a UK Dept of the Environment report from 1988/89, as does
> Chris Folland, so have asked him to think a little more.
> I've looked at the 1979 edition, and Figure 45 is the one.
> It has a curve, but with the 20th century warmer than the
> MWP!! It is said to be based on Lamb (1969). This is a
> chapter in the World Survey of Climatology Series
> edited by Landsberg. I can't see how you can adapt anything
> from this. Hubert's chapter has lots of detail, many figures
> which have lines with the phrase 'analyst's opinion' - one
> of his favourite terms for things he made up. If it is an
> adaptation, then it comes from Hubert's ideas about
> England and NW Europe, because these are the curves
> in the 1969 chapter.
>
> Anyone have the 1986 edition, to see if this curve got changed?
> The 1986 date is about right for being in the document I recall
> seeing. Some of you who've seen my room, will be saying if I had
> a better filing system, then I would be able to find it. Despite keeping
> most things I can't find this !
>
> By the way, it is GREAT PITY, the First IPCC report didn't use
> Fig 45. We'd all be very happy and the skeptics wouldn't be going
> on about what came out in 1990.
>
> Attached is the Met Office forecast for 2007. It seems that I'm
> getting
> the credit for this in the media. All I did was talk to the
> Independent about
> what I thought 2007 had in store weatherwise. With an El Nino going on,
> I thought it might be a record and just trotted off the typical
> things that happen
> in El Nino years.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
> Phil,
>
> I can't be sure but I think the original diagram is from Imbrie and
> Imbrie :
> Imbrie, John and Katherine Palmer Imbrie. Ice ages: Solving the
> Mystery. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1979,
> 1986 (reprint). ISBN 0-89490-020-X; ISBN 0-89490-015-3; ISBN
> 0-674-44075-7. p. 25
>
> You may have it in your library. I am afraid I don't have it to hand,
>
> David
>
>
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>

--
Caspar M. Ammann
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology
1850 Table Mesa Drive
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
email: ammannatXYZxyzr.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348


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