from: Sylvia Decotiis <sdecotiiatXYZxyzc.noaa.gov>
subject: Key Contributors IPCC Working Group I Lead Authors Meeting
to: 'Rind David' <drindatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, "'Frich, Povl'" <pfatXYZxyz.min.dk>, "'Robinson, David'" <firstname.lastname@example.org>, "'Walsh, John'" <email@example.com>
Below is information for the IPCC Working Group I Lead Authors Meeting. I am sending it again in text for those of you who could not read the files I sent yesterday.
IPCC Working Group I LEAD AUTHORS MEETING
November 30-December 2, 1998
Co-Convening Lead Authors --- Folland and Karl
Lead Authors Christy, Clarke, Gruza, Jouzel, Mann, Oerlemans, Salinger, Wang
Key Contributors Groisman(Precip/Extremes), Hurrell (tropospheric temperature and
circulation), Hulme (Precip), Jones (Temp and Paleo), Parker (Upper Air), Peterson
(Temp/Evap/Precip, extremes), Robinson (Snow Cover), Rind (Solar/Volcanic),Walsh(Sea
Ice), Frich (extremes).
Goals for Chapter 2 Authors
A. Developing the Chapter
1) Transform existing Chapter 2 outline into a topic sentence, or list, outline highlighting areas to
be covered within each section.
2) Develop a list of invited contributors, and contributions, on specific topics.
3) Liase with other Chapter Lead Authors especially the detection and attribution chapter and the
model projection chapter.
4) Identify key diagrams.
5) Develop guidelines and timetables for submission of work to convening lead authors.
6) Identify any new calculations required and who might be able to carry them out.
7) For special diagrams/tables identify individuals who will produce the diagrams/tables.
B. Special topic for presentations and discussion: Changing indices of Extremes
Led by the leader (Tom Peterson), and deputy leader (Povl Frich) of a WMO CLIVAR/CCl ad
hoc Task Group on Changing Climate Extremes, in consultation with Chris Folland. This ad hoc
group was set up by a Task Group of the CLIVAR/CCl Working Group on Climate Change
Detection in September 1998 and has started work.
C. Practical arrangements for efficiently writing and distributing text and diagrams.
One proposal, for discussion, is to put all Chapter 2 text and diagrams on one or two FTP sites.
Text in WORD97. Diagrams in POSTSCRIPT and/or embedded as files in WORD97 and using
a scanner where needed. This would only apply to the developing draft chapter, not individual
Chapter 2 Outline
Assigned Areas of Primary Responsibility
1 The overall length of Chapter 2 should be about 25 two column pages including figures
In the outline below Lead Authors are identified with key contributors and in some cases
contributors as well.
2 Introduction Folland and Karl
2.1 Summary of progress since IPCC 1995 ---- Folland and Karl
2.2 Is the world warming?
2.2.1 Background ---- Folland and Karl
2.2.2 Surface temperature ---- Folland, Jones, Peterson,Salinger,Gruza, Karl
220.127.116.11 Land surface air temperature
18.104.22.168 Sea surface and ocean surface air temperature
22.214.171.124 Land and sea combined
126.96.36.199 Are the surface temperature trends consistent
2.2.3 Tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures Christy with Hurrell and
188.8.131.52 Tropospheric trends
184.108.40.206 Lower stratospheric trends
220.127.116.11 Are tropospheric and surface trends consistent?
2.2.4 Volcanic and solar effects in the recent temperature record Folland with
2.2.5 Retreat of the glaciers including lake ice records Oerlemans
2.2.6 Trends in snow cover extent Oerlermans, Karl, with Robinson
18.104.22.168 Are the retreat of glaciers, lake ice records, and trends in snow
cover consistent with surface temperature trends
2.2.7 Sea ice and thickness ---- Clarke with Walsh
2.2.8 Subsurface ocean temperatures ---- Clarke with Levitus &
2.2.9 Summary of Section 2.2 ---- All lead authors lead by Karl
2.3 Is the recent warming unusual?
2.3.1 Background Jouzel, Mann, Wang, Salinger with Jones (all of 2.3)
2.3.2 Climate of the past 1000 years
22.214.171.124 Ice core records
126.96.36.199 Borehole temperatures
188.8.131.52 Tree rings
184.108.40.206 Length of the growing season
220.127.116.11 Was there a Little Ice Age and a Medieval Warm Spell?
2.3.3 Summary of 2.3 ----- All lead authors lead by Folland
2.4 How rapidly did climate change in the past?
2.4.1 Background ---- Jouzel, Mann, Salinger with Jones all of 2.4
2.4.2 How stable was the Holocene climate?
2.4.3 How fast did climate change during the glacial period?
2.4.4 How stable was the previous interglacial?
2.4.5 Summary of 2.4 ---- All Lead Authors lead by Jouzel
2.5 How have precipitation and atmospheric moisture changed?
2.5.1 Background ---- Karl
2.5.2 Trends in precipitation---- Karl, Gruza, Groisman, Peterson with Hulme
all of 2.5.2
18.104.22.168 Simultaneous changes of precipitation and temperature ---- Karl
2.5.3 Snowfall and snowdepth -----Karl with Groisman and Robinson
2.5.4 Land-surface and subsurface water
22.214.171.124 Streamflow ----Karl with Groisman, Salinger and Lattenmeir
126.96.36.199 Lake Levels -----Salinger, Karl with Groisman
188.8.131.52 Soil moisture ----Salinger with Peterson and Groisman
2.5.5 Evaporation--- Karl, Salinger with Peterson
2.5.6 Water Vapor--- Folland
184.108.40.206 Surface water vapor --- Folland with Gaffen
220.127.116.11 Tropospheric water vapor ---- Folland with Pan Mao Zhai, Gaffen,
2.5.7 Clouds ---- Salinger and Karl with Dai
2.5.8 Summary of 2.5 All lead by Karl
2.6 Are the atmospheric/oceanic circulations changing?
2.6.1 Background, including new evidence for natural decadal variability -----
2.6.2 El Nino/Southern Oscillation ---- Salinger, Folland
2.6.3 NAO, PNA AO, and the COWL ---- Folland with Hurrell and Wallace
2.6.4 Northern hemisphere circulation ---- Folland, Gruza
2.6.5 Southern hemisphere circulation ---- Salinger
2.6.6 Summary of Section 2.6 ---- All Lead Authors lead by Folland
2.7 Has climate variability or climate extremes changed? ---- Karl, Gruza with
Groisman, Jones all below
2.7.2 Is there evidence for changes in climate variability?
18.104.22.168 Atmospheric circulation
2.7.3 Are extreme weather events changing?
22.214.171.124 Tropical cyclones
126.96.36.199 Extra-tropical storminess
188.8.131.52 Intense precipitation events
184.108.40.206 Extreme temperature
220.127.116.11 Extreme surface moisture
18.104.22.168 Tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail, dust storms, and fire weather
2.7.4 Summary of Section 2.7
2.8 Is the climate really changing?
2.8.1 Are the observed trends internally consistent? Karl
2.8.2 What are the clearest changes? Folland and Karl
IPCC TAR Chapter 2 Lead Authors Meeting
March 11-12, 1999 with related Chapter 2 workshops
March 8 (8:30 a) - March 9 (1200) MSU, radiosonde, surface temperature controversy
March 9 (2p) March 10 (6p) Trends in weather and climate extremes (update)
SATELLITE DERIVED TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE RECORD:
This is an invitation to attend a special meeting on understanding biases in the satellite derived
tropospheric temperature record. The Co-Convening Lead Authors of Chapter 2 are holding a
special meeting to clarify what is known and what remains to be understood regarding the MSU,
radiosonde surface temperature controversy. There a series of question that we would like to
address during the 1.5 day meeting. These are articulated below:
1. Exactly how is the latest version of MSU2R and MSU2 created, allowing for the various
satellite drifts and offsets, including orbital altitude decay? Why does correction for the latter
effect not influence MSU2R trends much. What is the interannual variability and trend in
both over the tropics, remainder of the globe land and ocean? ? Are the latest MSU2 and
MSU2R results dynamically compatible or possible?
John Christy will lead this
2. How do model simulations (AGCM, CGCM) of changes in temperature lapse rates (at all
levels from the surface to lower stratosphere) compare with MSU2R and MSU2 especially when
natural (e.g. volcanoes) and anthropogenic forcings are included? What do they show over the
longer term? What are the shapes of any lapse rate changes? What about long control runs, what
can they tell us about possible changes in lapse rate over on decadal time scales?
Simon Brown will present new results
3. Are the surface data free from time-varying biases, especially in the last few decades. Are land
surface, SST and marine air temperature compatible?
Why do we see a sudden cooling in the night marine air temperature around 1991 in parts of the
tropics, relative to SST, that still persists?
4. How are state of the art radiosonde data sets created? What biases etc remain? How do state of
the art radiosonde analyses compare to MSU and model simulations? Is there evidence for real
decadal variations in the lower tropospheric lapse rate since the 1950s? Where? How much can
we believe any variations or changes?
David Parker to talk
5. What is the way forward for resolving the MSU trend debate before completion of the IPCC
IPCC TAR Chapter 2 Lead Authors Meeting
March 11-12, 1999 with related Chapter 2 workshops
March 8 (8:30 am) - March 9 (noon) MSU, radiosonde, surface temperature controversy
March 9 (2pm)- March 10 (6pm) Trends in weather and climate extremes (update)
TRENDS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES:
UPDATE SINCE JUNE 1997 ASHEVILLE CONFERENCE
The purpose of this meeting is to invite the authors of the chapters physical climate articles of the
special edition of Climatic Change (in press) to focus on new information that may be used for
the IPCC TAR report. A series of talks will also be invited to discuss topics related to the IPCC
TAR Chapter 2 Section 7 outline on trends in extreme weather and climate events (enclosed).
Additional requests for plenary lectures should be made to Tom Karl by January 1, 1999.
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