Wednesday, January 18, 2012


date: Wed Apr 27 14:03:31 2005
from: Phil Jones <>
subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: AR4 Question]
to: "carl mears" <>

Kevin is right about the deadlines not being very hard. One thing I would add - in our
next draft, we've been asked to supply pdfs of submitted papers and those in press
to go with the first order draft (FOD). As I understand reviewers will be able to request
these from WGI, if they are essential to their review. I hope and expect that WGI will
police this in some way. Anyone can review the FOD, if they sign up, so you can see
my concern. So, if we can get a pdf, we'll add it to the load we'll send to WGI.
Even the current FOD (which is the partially revised ZOD at the moment and will
get finalised following the May 10-12 meeting and subsequent writing for a mid-Aug
submission) is at odds with CCSP. Having just gone through and signed off the NRC
review of the CCSP VTT report, you will find you (plural here) have a lot to respond to.
This review is supposed to be sent off by NRC on 29 April. It would seem your new paper
goes some way to addressing some of our concerns.
With AR4 not due out till Jan 2007, you can see why we're treating IPCC deadlines
for papers being submitted as soft rather than hard. There are 19 months between now
and Jan07 ! Through our CAs and other contacts we're aware of many papers in the
but there will doubtless be many more.

At 02:03 27/04/2005, you wrote:

Phil, FYI
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Re: AR4 Question
Date: Tue, April 26, 2005 7:00 pm
To: "carl mears" <>
Hi Carl
Good to hear from you. I believe the cutoff date was 1 May, although the
timetable I have says 10 May: I would use that. 10 May is when we meet
again in Beijing to begin to finalize the First order draft. To be honest
I regard this as a soft deadline: the more critical deadline is to have
the paper accepted and in press by the end of the year: actually by 16
December when the last meeting of the Lead Authors takes place. {Even
that might be a bit soft as the real deadline is when we put the second
order (final) draft to bed in January}
Now you will know that if you submit it, and it is critical of UAH
reconstruction, that John will do all he can to hold it up and prevent
publication. You should alert the editor to this and point out that he
has a conflict of interest. It would be bad if the editor did not consult
John, but John's views should be timely and carry no weight in the
decision. But most editors don't work that way.
Now you may also be aware that Qiang Fu has a paper now in press on this
topic in GRL. Fu's analysis also suggests that the diurnal temperature
correction is flawed in UAH, something I have long suspected. But his
analysis is superficial.
Even in the ZOD we were critical of UAH in the tropics TLT, and the
current draft, which is revised, says similar things. We are trying to
look ahead and we are at odds with CCSP at this point.
Unfortunately there are many in the community not so enlightened and so we
have to be careful in our wording. I look forward to your paper and if
you can get it to us by end of next week then that should be fine. Kevin
Please also note that our paper on water vapor trends is now in press (It
uses RSS SSM/I data: I sent a copy to Frank Wentz but was never sure he
received it, please check with him. You can download it from our web site
> Hi Kevin
> I've been talking to some modeling people, and they seem to have a
> cutoff date (May 30) by when a paper needs to be submitted to a journal
in order
> to be considered for consideration in the AR4. Does our chapter have a
> date? Has it already past? I hope not.
> I'm very close to submitting our analysis of MSU TLT that is very different
> from
> UAH, particularly in the tropics. I think that the UAH diurnal
correction is
> totally wrong. (Did you know it is of opposite sign from their TMT
> complete with a huge seasonal cycle in the tropics).
> Anyway, if you believe our new version, the surface/TLT disconnect in
the tropics is resolved. Seems like the AR4 would be immediately
out-of-date without this. I hope to have a draft that you could see in
a week or so. When
> is the LA meeting?
> Thanks
> -Carl

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email

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