Wednesday, January 18, 2012

2030.txt

cc: "Betts, Richard" <richard.bettsatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, Clare Goodess <C.GoodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, C G Kilsby <c.g.kilsbyatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, S.L.BarratXYZxyz.ac.uk, H J Fowler <h.j.fowleratXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, Richard Dawson <richard.dawsonatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>
date: Fri, 09 Nov 2007 16:24:59 +0000
from: Mark McCarthy <mark.mccarthyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: Scorchio
to: Jim Hall <jim.hallatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>

Jim,

That is a good summary of our discussion. Two additional points:

While the runs are inextricably linked to UKCIP, we will still need to
be careful about how we extrapolate the emissions/model uncertainty.
This may in some part will relate to how non-linear the heat-island and
climate change interactions prove to be at the regional model scale. In
principle this could and should be done, but with some thought over
methodology.

The 7Wm-2 is the number being floated for Manchester at the moment, but
it is to be confirmed.

It might also be worth adding that for the Tyndall Centre work it would
be beneficial if we could run the model with a spatially varying
anthropogenic heat flux so that London and Manchester differ, as would
different London grid-boxes. Ideally we would take London estimates from
UCL to ensure some level of consistency with the LUCID modelling.

Kind regards,
Mark


On Fri, 2007-11-09 at 13:52 +0000, Jim Hall wrote:
>
> Hi Mark
>
> Very useful to talk to you this morning.
>
> To recap on our objectives in relation to the Tyndall Centre work:
> We (Newcastle and CRU) will be applying the Scorchio methodology to
> London. This will involve (i) extracting spatial patterns of temperature
> from AVHRR satellite data and (ii) training a weather generator based on
> observed data. We will then scale the patterns off one or more of the
> weather stations and do some cross-validation of the patterns using
> other observations. We will explore conditioning of the pattern scaling
> on persistence statistics or weather types.
>
> The plan you described in relation to Scorchio seems to fit in with this
> very well. i.e.
> The urban land surface and anthropogenic heat sources will be run for
> all urban areas in the RCM domain so we can extract data for London. See
> below for further discussion of the anthropogenic heat flux assumptions
> for London.
> The runs will be transient and will correspond to one member of the
> UKCIP08 ensemble, so, by scaling off other runs in the UKCIP ensemble we
> can extract time slices corresponding to a range of future climates. The
> only query here is that obtaining high climate change (emissions,
> sensitivity) scenarios for the 2080s may involve some extrapolation. You
> may wish to comment on this.
> You can output daily pressure and wind fields for weather type
> classification if necessary.
> You will be doing the following runs:
> Run 1: transient run with steady (7W/m2) urban anthropogenic heat flux.
> To be completed for January 08
> Run 2: transient run with linearly increasing urban anthropogenic heat
> flux. This represents some high business as usual scenario for
> increasing heat fluxes (increasing energy consumption). Rate of increase
> to be decided? Could be completed at roughly the same time as run 1.
> Run 3: to be decided at a Scorchio meeting in March 08. Possibly to
> represent some adaptation scenario and energy efficienty measures (i.e.
> between run 1 and run 2 in terms of heat flux, or maybe even below run
> 1?).
>
> Our requirements to make use of this work in the Tyndall Centre cities
> programme seem to be reasonably modest:
> 1. achive daily data for London grid cells (presumably happening anyway)
> 2. archive hourly data for London grid cells (not essential I think, but
> potentially interesting)
> 3. archive pressure data for weather type classification (may be
> happening anyway)
> 4. use more realistic anthropogenic heat flux estimates for London. We
> discussed this at some length. You already have estimates for each
> London borough (up to 60-100W/m2 for Westminster) and UCL have done more
> detailed analysis. You suggested that with aggregation of boroughs
> across grid cells you expect to end up with about 20Wm2 for the inner
> London grid cell and about 10W/m2 for outer London. This seems
> reasonable, but I will ask Mike Davies more about this when I see him on
> 22 Nov.
>
> I hope these 4 items seem reasonable and feasible. Please let me know if
> this does not correspond with your understanding of our conversation.
>
> I suggest that we talk or exchange emails again when you are finalising
> the specification for your runs 1 and 2. By that time we will have made
> further progress in the development of the weather generator and pattern
> scaling methodology.
>
> Best regards
>
> Jim
>
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Mark McCarthy [mailto:mark.mccarthyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk]
> > Sent: 26 October 2007 08:59
> > To: Jim Hall
> > Cc: Betts, Richard
> > Subject: RE: Scorchio
> >
> > Hello Jim,
> >
> > Apologies. I was at the SCORCHIO meeting in Manchester
> > yesterday so missed your email. Feel free to get in touch
> > today if it would still be useful. My phone numbers are:
> >
> > desk: (01392) 884672
> > mobile: 07835995074
> >
> > Regards,
> > Mark
> >
> > On Thu, 2007-10-25 at 14:51 +0100, Jim Hall wrote:
> > > Mark
> > >
> > > Any chance of you calling me this afternoon on 07793 627716? I'm
> > > meeting Phil Jones tomorrow and would like to have an
> > update from you
> > > before then.
> > >
> > > Thanks
> > >
> > > Jim
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Betts, Richard [mailto:richard.bettsatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk]
> > > > Sent: 25 October 2007 00:25
> > > > To: Jim Hall
> > > > Cc: McCarthy, Mark
> > > > Subject: RE: Scorchio
> > > >
> > > > Hi Jim,
> > > >
> > > > Good to hear from you. I am on Annual Leave but you can talk to
> > > > Mark McCarthy (mark.mccarthyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk) if the
> > questions are
> > > > on the model development or related science.
> > > > Mark, are you able to ring Jim on his number below?
> > > >
> > > > Cheers,
> > > >
> > > > Richard
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Dr Richard Betts Manager Climate Impacts Met Office
> > Hadley Centre
> > > > FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom
> > > > Tel: +44 (0)1392 886877 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
> > > > E-mail: richard.bettsatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: Jim Hall [mailto:jim.hallatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk]
> > > > Sent: 23 October 2007 14:29
> > > > To: Betts, Richard
> > > > Subject: Scorchio
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Dear Richard
> > > >
> > > > Can you give me a call about scorchio/Tyndall? Phil Jones
> > is coming
> > > > here on Thursday and I need to make some decisions before
> > I speak to
> > > > him then.
> > > >
> > > > I don't have your direct number and getting through to
> > you from the
> > > > MetOffice switch board is a nightmare!
> > > >
> > > > Cheers
> > > >
> > > > Jim
> > > >
> > > > -------------------------------------------
> > > > Professor of Earth Systems Engineering Tyndall Centre for Climate
> > > > Change Research School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Room
> > > > 3.19 Cassie Building Newcastle University
> > > > NE1 7RU
> > > > UK
> > > >
> > > > Phone: +44 191 222 3660 (Direct)
> > > > +44 191 222 6319 (Secretary)
> > > > Fax: +44 191 222 6669
> > > > Email: Jim.HallatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> > > > http://www.ceg.ncl.ac.uk/profiles2/njh57
> > > >
> > > > MSc in Flood Risk Management:
> > > > http://www.ncl.ac.uk/cegs.cpd/flexiblelearning/frm.php
> > > >
> > > >
> > --
> > Mark McCarthy Climate Impacts Scientist
> > Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Fitzroy Road,
> > Exeter, EX1 3PB
> > Tel: +44(0)1392 884672
> > Fax: +44(0)1392 885681
> > email: mark.mccarthyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
> > web: www.metoffice.gov.uk
> >
--
Mark McCarthy Climate Impacts Scientist
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change,
Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB
Tel: +44(0)1392 884672
Fax: +44(0)1392 885681
email: mark.mccarthyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
web: www.metoffice.gov.uk

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