Thursday, January 19, 2012

2051.txt

cc: Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorfatXYZxyzan-klima.de>
date: Thu, 29 May 2008 11:43:02 -0400
from: Michael Mann <mannatXYZxyzeo.psu.edu>
subject: Re: Thompson et al paper
to: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

we also need to debunk the notion that McIntyre in any way figured this out on his own.
What is the date of the first talk that was given publicly about this? we can assume that
McIntyre could have learned about what Phil et al were doing on this as early as then. It
would be good to have the timeline to demontrate the falsehood of his claim to have
independently discovered this.
m
Michael Mann wrote:

yes--some sort of urgent reply seems essential here. it was probably a mistake to publish
this w/out at least some initial estimate of the actual extent of the corrections.
Phil--is there any way to do a back-of-the-envelope calculation on the correction?
Otherwise,McIntyre's ridiculous figure, is going to spread like wildfire--you can be sure
that all of the usual, right-wing outlets will be promoting this as evidence that our
knowledge is deeply flawed.
also, note that there is no consideration of the buoy problem (which increases the recent
warming) here.
we need to do something quick,
mike
Gavin Schmidt wrote:

If there is an wildly inappropriate exaggeration to be made, you know
who will make it:

[1]http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001445does_the_ipccs_main.ht
ml

Phil, I suggest that you (as in HadISST/CRU) will need to have a better
estimate of the adjustment necessary available soon otherwise this is
going to spread. "Nature" abhors a vaccuum....

Gavin

On Thu, 2008-05-22 at 13:48, Michael Mann wrote:

p.s. Phil--here's an antidote to the Canada Free [w/ its facts] Press
article, also just out:
[2]http://www.miller-mccune.com/article/348

feel free to distribute far and wide!

mike

Phil Jones wrote:

Mike, Gavin,
OK - as long as you're not critical and remember the embargo.
I'll expect Nature
will be sending the paper around later today to the press embargoed
till the middle
of next week.
Attached is the pdf. This is the final one bar page and volume
numbers. Also
attached is our latest draft press release. This is likely OK
except for the last paragraph
which we're still working on. There will also be a News and Views
item from
Dick Reynolds and a Nature news piece from Quirin Schiermeier. I
don't have either
of these. I did speak to Quirin on Tuesday and he's also spoke to
Dave and John.
It took me a while to explain the significance of the paper. I
hope to get these later
two items before I might have to do any interviews early next week.
We have
a bank holiday on Monday in the UK. The press release will go out
jointly from
the Met Office and UEA - not sure exactly when.
Potentially the key issue is the final Nature sentence which
alludes to the probable
underestimation of SSTs in the last few years. Drifters now
measuring SSTs dominate
by over 2 to 1 cf ships. Drifters likely measure SSTs about 0.1 to
0.2 deg C cooler
than ships, so we could be underestimating SSTs and hence global T.
I hope Dick
will discuss this more. It also means that the 1961-90 average SST
that people use
to force/couple with models is slightly too warm. Ship-based SSTs
are in decline - lots
of issues related to the shipping companies wanting the locations
of the ships
kept secret, also some minor issues of piracy as well. You might
want to talk to Scott Woodruff
more about this.
A bit of background. Loads more UK WW2 logs have been digitized
and these will
be going or have gone into ICOADS. These logs cover the WW2 years
as well
as the late 1940s up to about 1950. It seems that all of these
require bucket corrections.
My guess will be that the period from 1945-49 will get raised by up
to 0.3 deg C for the
SSTs, so about 0.2 for the combined. In digitizing they have
concentrated on the
South Atlantic/Indian Ocean log books.

[3]http://brohan.org/hadobs/digitised_obs/docs/ and click on SST to
see some comparisons.
The periods mentioned here don't seem quite right as more later
1940s logs have also been
digitized. There are more log books to digitize for WW2 - they
have done about half of those
not already done.

If anyone wonders where all the RN ships came from, many of those
in the S. Atlantic/indian
oceans were originally US ships. The UK got these through the
Churchill/Roosevelt deal in 1939/40.
Occasionally some ships needed repairs and the UK didn't have the
major parts, so
this will explain the voyages of a few south of OZ and NZ across
the Pacific to Seattle
and then back into the fray.

ICOADS are looking into a project to adjust/correct all their log
books.

Also attaching a ppt from Scott Woodruff. Scott knows who signed
this!

If you want me to look through anything then email me.

I have another paper just accepted in JGR coming out on Chinese
temps
and urbanization. This will also likely cause a stir. I'll send you
a copy when
I get the proofs from AGU. Some of the paper relates to the 1990
paper
and the fraud allegation against Wei-Chyung Wang. Remind me on this
in
a few weeks if you hear nothing.

Cheers
Phil

PS CRU/Tyndall won a silver medal for our garden at the Chelsea
Flower Show -
the theme of the show this year was the changing climate and how it
affects gardening.
Clare Goodess was at the garden on Tuesday. She said she never
stopped
for her 4 hour stint of talking to the public - only one skeptic.
She met the environment minister.
She was talking about the high and low emissions garden. The
minister (Phil Woolas)
seemed to think that the emissions related to the ability of the
plants to extract
CO2 from the atmosphere! He'd also not heard of the UHI! Still
lots of education
needed.

PPS Our web server has found this piece of garbage - so wrong it is
unbelievable that
Tim Ball wrote a decent paper in Climate Since AD 1500. I sometimes
wish I'd never
said this about the land stations in an email. Referring to Alex
von Storch just
shows how up to date he is.

[4]http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/3151


At 20:12 21/05/2008, Michael Mann wrote:

Hi Phil,

Gavin and I have been discussing, we think it will be important
for us to do something on the Thompson et al paper as soon as it
appears, since its likely that naysayers are going to do their
best to put a contrarian slant on this in the blogosphere.

Would you mind giving us an advance copy. We promise to fully
respect Nature's embargo (i.e., we wouldn't post any article until
the paper goes public) and we don't expect to in any way be
critical of the paper. We simply want to do our best to help make
sure that the right message is emphasized.

thanks in advance for any help!

mike


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of
Meteorology
Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker
Building
FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University
email: [5]mannatXYZxyz.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013


[6]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [7]p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK -----------------
-----------------------------------------------------------

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [8]mannatXYZxyz.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[9]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [10]mannatXYZxyz.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[11]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [12]mannatXYZxyz.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

[13]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

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