Thursday, January 19, 2012

2059.txt

date: Thu Aug 4 08:34:25 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Out in latest J. Climate
to: mannatXYZxyz.edu

Mike,
He's been working with Myles Allen. Tim went to the first meeting of this
Dutch funded project near Oxford last week.
Tim said they were doing some odd things, like correlating all the proxy series
they had with CET (yes CET)! Even the few SH proxies they have. The others
who went to the meeting were Zorita and Moberg. Zorita was still showing the
GKSS run with Moberg series, even though its forcing is too large, it doesn't
have aerosols in the 20th century and has spin up problems for the first
200 years.
Meeting wasn't that productive according to Tim. There was a belief amongst
those there that all trees you used have lost low-freq, but this isn't true as you know.
Also, it was a good job Keith wasn't there (he didn't go as his father died the
weekend before and he's not been in CRU since) as Martin assumed that RCS
was developed by Esper (who also wasn't there). Tim put them right on this
one, but RCS isn't applicable for normal tree sites, nor useful for bristlecones.
Tim said Esper was wrong is his use of RCS, but they wouldn't accept that
as Esper wasn't there to defend himself!
Basically only Tim knew anything about proxy data especially trees. Tim
got the impression that they wanted to find that MBH is wrong. Given the
previous comment, as you weren't there they are using double standards.
So, in conclusion, act carefully. Don't jump in, but some carefully thought
through comments should be productive. Suggest they read the RevG article.
Martin isn't associated with the contrarians, but he's not in possession
of the all the facts. He isn't aware of Casper's work, nor your latest study
which you sent the other day, nor Rutherford et al.
There still seems to be a belief in these lower responding proxies. This is
something we want to work on more here, as the only way it seems to show
that these lower-freq proxies aren't that great is to use higher-freq proxies.
When you're back or sometime, can you remind Scott to send your
latest set of proxies. I'll have some time in the autumn to work on them
as the AR4 should be in by Aug 12.
Science should be publishing 3 papers on the MSU issue by the end of Aug
or early Sept. This is Mears/Wentz, Santer et al. and Sherwood et al. Latter
shows that sondes are only truly reliable when flown at night. Daytime ones
have all manner of problems with heating, just like air temps on board ships -
hence the NMAT series.
I'll forward another email for interest.
Cheers
Phil
At 03:40 04/08/2005, you wrote:

Hi Phil,
Thanks, yes I'm in China now. As you might imagine, ,things have been very busy, but
calming down a bit. Looks like Barton may be backing down...
Martin Juckes has an invited talk in my session. I invited him, because he was working
w/ Stott et al, and so I assume he was legit, and not associated with the contrarians.
But if he's associated w/ the Dutch group, he may actually be a problem. Do you have
additional information about him and what he has been up to?
Thanks,
mike
Phil Jones wrote:

Mike,
Good to hear it is out !
Hope the changeover is going OK and life is getting back to normal.
If you're not gone to China yet - you'll meet someone called Martin
Dukes (?). He's giving a talk at your session. He knows about maths
etc but not much about paleo ! Might need some education, but
is probably OK. Not met him, but Tim has. Doing some worked
funded by the Dutch govt on the hockey stick.
Cheers
Phil
At 04:05 03/08/2005, you wrote:

Dear Colleagues,
FYI, two papers attached:
First (reprint), Rutherford et al, is now out in latest issue of Journal of Climate.
This paper, aside from addressing other more scientifically-worthwhile issues, also
happens to discredit most of the McIntyre and McKitrick claims.
Second (preprint), Mann et al, is formally in press (i.e., has gone off to the AMS
production staff) in Journal of Climate. This paper strongly challenges the conclusions
of von Storch et al (2004), and raises some methodological issues w/ the approach used
by Moberg et al (2005).
Feel free to pass along to others. Thanks
Mike
--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: mannatXYZxyz.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013
[1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: mannatXYZxyz.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013
[2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

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