from: Jason A Lowe <jaloweatXYZxyzo.gov.uk>
subject: Re: sea-level
to: m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk (Mike Hulme)
> Geoff Jenkins forwarded your/Jonathan's sea-level rise estimates to me for
> the UKCIP scenario. Can I check I have interpretated them correctly? By
> 2100 IS92d GHG run generates (wrt 1990):
> +27.0cm thermal expansion
> +14.4cm glacier melt
> +7.4cm Greenland melt
> -7.2cm Antarctica melt
> +41.6cm total sea-level rise.
> This compares with something between 55cm and 60cm for 'IS92a' GHG run.
>Are these calculations from the 1st ensemble member or from the ensemble-mean?
Sorry I couldn't get back to you last week, I was off sick. I see from the
various E-mails that have been going backwards and forwards that Jonathan
has clarified the ice melt calculations are correct wrt 1990.
The thermal expansion 27.5 cm is relative to 1860 (there was a header
on the raw data I forwarded to Geoff). The value relative to 1990 is
20.9 cm. These are the results for the Ensemble mean.
On another subject, HadCM3 thermal expansion results are available as
decadal averages. The yearly values should be available in a couple of
days. Jonathan tells me you would like the HadCM3 data but was uncertain
whether you require the yearly or decadal values - which would you like ?
Dr Jason A Lowe
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
UK Met. Office
Tel: +44(0)1344 856883
Fax: +44(0)1344 854898