Monday, March 5, 2012

2343.txt

cc: Sandy Tudhope <sandy.tudhopeatXYZxyzac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Tim Osborn <t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Gabi Hegerl <Gabi.HegerlatXYZxyzac.uk>, Chris Jones <chris.d.jones@metoffice.gov.uk>, Peter Cox <P.M.CoxatXYZxyzter.ac.uk>, Rob Allan <rob.allanatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, Philip Brohan <philip.brohanatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, Rob Wilson <rjswatXYZxyzandrews.ac.uk>, Catherine Bass <C.J.BassatXYZxyzter.ac.uk>
date: Mon, 17 Aug 2009 10:36:14 +0100
from: Simon Tett <simon.tettatXYZxyzac.uk>
subject: Re: Proposed 2 pager
to: Chris Turney <turneychrisatXYZxyzil.com>

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Hi Chris,
thanks for that. I've just managed a quick read. I'm pleased you are
trying to pull together a bit of the community on this. It is not an
easy job!

However, I'm not convinced that what you are planning will do what is
needed. I think the concept note still feels very general. Where is the
focus and how will that focus improve scientific knowledge? How is the
project a consortium? [For example the carbon cycle stuff could be
de-coupled from the rest and the climate modelling from the paleo
synthesis.]

Some issues. Gabi has looked at constraining climate sensitivity from
paleo data. I don't think it provided a very strong constraint and still
admitted sensitivities greater than 7K.That might be dominated by
uncertainty in paleo calibration though forcing uncertainty will be
important as well. What kind of uncertainties in the
paleo-reconstructions do you think there will be. They'd need to be
significantly smaller than the 4th assessment report found. More
tractable might be to look at changes in circulation and regional
climate change. [Which I know you hint at.]

Gabi (PI) and I have a "blue skies" project funded which will look at
regional climate change over Europe. We plan to do a load of runs with
HadCM3 for that. We could send the proposal to the list if Gabi is happy
to do so.

I and Gabi also have funding from NCAS-Climate for a millennium
simulation with HadGEM2. NCAS like us to raise additional money though!
I'm happy to send our plans to the CC list (if Gabi doesn't object).

Summary thoughts. Needs more focus. Not clear it is a consortium. I
don't think this will be ready for December -- though the deadline does
focus everyone's mind no end.

Simon

Chris Turney wrote:
> Hi guys,
>
> Apologies for the delay in getting back to you. I'm in a very cold and
> wet Bergen at the moment and the internet access is not the best.
>
> Many thanks for all your comments and suggestions. This all looks
> great. I've tried to incorporate these into the concept note. The more
> detailed points I've kept in a folder for us to thrash out the detail
> for the next round. Can you let me know what you think of the attached
> by Wednesday this week? If you're happy for us to proceed, perhaps we
> can send in for Friday? As I head north the internet access will
> probably get worse of if we can do it before I fall off the edge of the
> known world that would be great.
>
> Also, I've contacted Eric Wolff to see if he would be interested in
> being involved and as soon as I hear back I'll let you know.
>
> All the best,
>
> Chris
> ****************************************************
> *Professor Chris Turney FRSA FRGS*
>
> Director of Carbonscape <http://www.carbonscape.com>, /Fixing carbon the
> way nature intended/
> //
>
> Author of Ice, Mud and Blood: Lessons from Climates Past
> <http://us.macmillan.com/icemudandblood>
> Popular science website:
> www.christurney.com <http://www.christurney.com>
> Journal of Quaternary Science
> <http://www.interscience.wiley.com/journal/jqs> Asian and Australasian
> Regional Editor
>
> School of Geography
> The University of Exeter
> Exeter
> Devon
> EX4 4RJ
> UK
>
> Home page:
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> <http://www.sogaer.ex.ac.uk/geography/people/staff/c_turney/main.shtml>
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> ****************************************************
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> *Arthur Dent:* And are you?
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> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>

--
Simon Tett
Chair of Earth System Dynamics
School of Geosciences
The University of Edinburgh
Tel:+44-(0)131-650-5341
Fax: +44 (0)131 668 3184
email:simon.tettatXYZxyzac.uk
Room 351, Grant Institute,
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UK
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The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.

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