Monday, March 5, 2012


date: Wed, 27 Sep 2006 18:10:03 +0100
from: "Saffron O'Neill" <>
subject: Re: Expert elicitation and polar bears
to: "Tim Osborn" <>

Hi Tim

Yes, fair point. I've got 9 hours on the train to and from Newcastle
tomorrow so I'll muse over it in more detail then!

How's the modelling going? Is it in the format you expected?

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Osborn" <>
To: "Saffron O'Neill" <>; "Irene Lorenzoni"
<>; "Mike Hulme" <>
Sent: Wednesday, September 27, 2006 9:06 AM
Subject: Re: Expert elicitation and polar bears

> Hi Saffron,
> your document makes a reasonable case for this approach. Obviously you
> can't be more explicit about the material you will present to them yet,
> until we've had a look together at the IPCC model results that I'm
> extracting. But perhaps you can already be a bit more explicit about the
> question(s) you will be asking them? What precisely do you want this
> expert group to make their judgements on?
> Cheers
> Tim
> At 18:06 26/09/2006, Saffron O'Neill wrote:
>>Dear Irene, Mike and Tim
>>Thanks for all your individual comments so far on operationalising the
>>icons. To update:
>>Irene has suggested that a produce a quick intro to how I plan to
>>operationalise the polar bear icon. At the moment, the plan is to use an
>>expert elicitation. Tim has kindly agreed to investigate the use of some
>>sea ice models and hopefully this will be completed in the near future.
>>An expert elicitation can be a really time-consuming process so I need to
>>get it underway quickly if I'm to be able to present this information to
>>the public in stage 3 by the new year!
>>I've attached my justification for expert elicitation, including a brief
>>explanation of how this may be carried out. I've also included a very
>>brief lit. review of exactly what I am calling an expert elicitation in
>>this context, with pros and cons.
>>As usual, I'd appreciate any feedback! Could we (Irene and Mike) meet to
>>discuss this proposal, perhaps on Friday, or next week?
>>I'm at the Tyndall away day tomorrow and off to Newcastle on Thursday to
>>meet Jim Hall and Rich Dawson to discuss the London icon, so apologies if
>>this is a little rough round the edges - I wanted to get it off ASAP.
> Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow
> Climatic Research Unit
> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
> Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
> e-mail:
> phone: +44 1603 592089
> fax: +44 1603 507784
> web:
> sunclock:
> **Norwich -- City for Science:
> **Hosting the BA Festival 2-9 September 2006


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