Monday, March 12, 2012

2408.txt

cc: p.metcalfeatXYZxyz.ac.uk, "Tovey Keith Dr" <k.toveyatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk, c.harphamatXYZxyz.ac.uk
date: Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:32:45 +0100 (BST)
from: K.ToveyatXYZxyz.ac.uk
subject: RE: DEFRA Proposal
to: "Clare Goodess" <C.GoodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

There is also the issue of what formulae used.

i.e. the basic where one compares the mean daily/hourly temperature with
the base, and the more involved where one has to correct for the cases
where the base lies between the max and min. Also what base are we
proposing for cooling? or are we not worryign about that?

Keith
N. Keith Tovey (���)MA PhD CEng MICE CEnv
HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
CRed Energy Science Director
Reader in Environmental Sciences
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
NORWICH, NR4 7TJ, UK
tel. +44 - (0)1603 592553
fax. +44 - (0)1603 591327

> Just to add. There will be flexibility to use
> whatever baseline(s) people think is appropriate.
>
> Clare
>
> At 15:07 13/07/2009, Metcalfe Peter Mr (VCO) wrote:
>>Keith,
>>
>>
>>The competition requirements are a bit open
>>ended. I'd been trying to contact you since my meeting with Clare.
>>
>>Essentially, as I understand it, I think we have
>>the option to improve the current methodology by
>>including mean degree hours (page 16 attached)
>>rather than the Met office method (page 17)
>>based on their reference to the comparison made by Day and
>> Karayiannis(1998).
>>
>>I will put use of either Vesma's online regional
>>data this as an option in the tender. This is
>>the same as you mention - base 15.5 using the
>>Met office method as referenced above. See http://www.vesma.com/ddd/
>>
>>If you are not so busy right now can I come over to discuss this with
>> you?
>>
>>
>>Regards
>>
>>
>>
>>Pete
>>
>>
>>
>>----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>>Peter Metcalfe
>>
>>Projects
>>
>>Low Carbon Innovation Centre
>>
>>ZICER Building
>>
>>University of East Anglia
>>
>>Norwich
>>
>>UK
>>
>>NR4 7TJ
>>
>>www.uea.ac.uk/lcic
>>
>>
>>
>>p.metcalfeatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>
>>
>>
>>T +44 (0)1603 592583
>>
>>F +44 (0)1603 591549
>>
>>__________________________________________________
>>
>>This email may contain privileged information.
>>If you are not the intended recipient please
>>notify the sender and delete all copies.
>>
>>
>>
>>'Low Carbon Innovation Centre' and 'CRed' are
>>trading names of Low Carbon Innovation Centre
>>Limited, a company registered in England
>>(no.06525180) with its registered office at The
>>Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
>>NR4 7TJ The Carbon Connections fund is operated
>>by Carbon Connections UK Limited, a company
>>registered in England (no. 05906083) with its
>>registered office at The Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich, R4
>> 7TJ
>>
>>
>>
>>Both Low Carbon Innovation Centre Limited and
>>Carbon Connections UK Limited are wholly owned
>>subsidiaries of the University of East Anglia
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: K.ToveyatXYZxyz.ac.uk [mailto:K.ToveyatXYZxyz.ac.uk]
>>Sent: 13 July 2009 13:34
>>To: Goodess Clare Dr (ENV)
>>Cc: "Metcalfe Peter Mr \"
>><p.metcalfeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Jones Philip Prof \"
>><p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Harpham Colin Dr \"
>><c.harphamatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Tovey Keith Dr \" <k.toveyatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>>Subject: RE: DEFRA Proposal
>>
>>Clare
>>
>> I am just curious on what method you will be using to compute degree
>>days - the basic one as often used or the one which give corrections
>>when the neutral temperature is between the maximum and minimum.
>>
>> i am presumign you are using a neutral temperature of 15.5, but
>> there
>>are some who think we should be working to other base temperatures,
>>and what base temperature will you use for cooling degree days?
>>
>>Keith
>>
>>
>>
>>N. Keith Tovey (���)MA PhD CEng MICE CEnv
>>HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
>>CRed Energy Science Director
>>Reader in Environmental Sciences
>>School of Environmental Sciences
>>University of East Anglia
>>NORWICH, NR4 7TJ, UK
>>tel. +44 - (0)1603 592553
>>fax. +44 - (0)1603 591327
>>
>> > Hi Peter
>> >
>> > All this is a bit 'how long is a piece of string?
>> >
>> > To process the full set of hourly variables that
>> > we require for the weather generator from BADC
>> > can take half a day per station. But this would
>> > be less here as only temperature is required. And
>> > we already have data for a number of stations
>> > (mainly up to 1995) so would largely be a matter
>> > of updating to present. So as a rough estimate
>> > (which Colin can correct), maybe four stations per day.
>> >
>> > So an absolute minimum would be 5 working days
>> > for data extraction/processing and 5 working days
>> > for analyses/production of degree days (including
>> > work with 5 km data set). So minima would be
>> > something like 10 days in first year, 5 in second
>> > and third - with 1/2 extra days in final year for
>> > final reporting. More time would allow more work
>> > on assessing data homogeneity etc.
>> >
>> > If the energy data are very spatially aggregated,
>> > then I think some work/thought is still needed in
>> > order to derive representative spatially aggregated degree day data.
>> >
>> > Best wishes, Clare
>> >
>> >
>> > At 18:47 10/07/2009, Metcalfe Peter Mr \(VCO\) wrote:
>> >>Hi Clare,
>> >>
>> >>I've not yet finished the proposal as I'd have
>> >>like to; before I send it on I have a few
>> >>queries regarding the 're-baselining' requirements to put to rest.
>> >>
>> >>I will send it by Wednesday at the latest hopefully by close of play
>> >> Tuesday.
>> >>
>> >>Before then could you confirm an indication of
>> >>the person-days it would take to put in place
>> >>the programme needed to validate and process
>> >>BADC temperature data and generate 'custom' degree days data?
>> >>
>> >>I recall you mentioned that is would require
>> >>more person days initially but once the
>> >>programme has been written this could batch
>> >>process future data (with exceptions making some
>> >>allowances for unhelpful formatting changes in BADC data).
>> >>
>> >>The 3 month lead time could be a problem for the
>> >>re-base lining process however, (it is not very
>> >>clear whether the weather correction of
>> >>baselines would be the year immediately
>> >>preceding) but this shouldn't be a problem for
>> >>the bulk of the data analyses which will start
>> >>in earnest after July 31st each year. This is
>> >>one of the issues I need to get clarification on.
>> >>
>> >>Though the number of different geographical
>> >>locations reported under the government
>> >>departments are not indicated by DECC, It will
>> >>be helpful if you could provide an indication of
>> >>the person-days needed for generating degree
>> >>days for each location, after the initial
>> >>programme has been written, to allow for the data format issues you
>> >> mentioned.
>> >>
>> >>It's likely that the level of the reported
>> >>energy data is the limiting factor for this
>> >>task. From the scant information given by DECC
>> >>it seems the data is likely to be reported to us
>> >>in varied levels of detail within each
>> >>government department; individual building
>> >>energy use may be reported, but the Q & A
>> >>documents suggest that more commonly these data
>> >>will be aggregated (both temporally and
>> >>spatially) for reporting under each government department.
>> >>
>> >>My concern, as I pointed out when we met, is
>> >>that this particular proposal's requirement for
>> >>weather correction, as it stands, is very much
>> >>beneath the sophistication of what you (CRU) can
>> >>offer. We may propose a sophisticated degree day
>> >>generator only to find that the much of the
>> >>energy data reported from buildings in different
>> >>geographical location has been aggregated. Also,
>> >>as I showed you, standard degree days data is
>> >>freely available for met stations and regional
>> >>averages from a number of sources.
>> >>
>> >>Though, as you suggested, there would be great
>> >>scope for improving the mechanism for energy
>> >>data reporting and subsequently improving the
>> >>weather correction process for building
>> >>performance reports. I hope that this is
>> >>something that DECC will welcome and allow
>> >>resources for in the bid. The 5km grid data Phil
>> >>mentioned sounds really rather useful in this respect.
>> >>
>> >>Either way with CRU as an advisory or active
>> >>role in the bid I feel this will greatly improve
>> >>our chances of winning the tender.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Thank you
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Best regards
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Pete
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>----------------------------------------------
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> >>
>> >>Peter Metcalfe
>> >>
>> >>Projects
>> >>
>> >>Low Carbon Innovation Centre
>> >>
>> >>ZICER Building
>> >>
>> >>University of East Anglia
>> >>
>> >>Norwich
>> >>
>> >>UK
>> >>
>> >>NR4 7TJ
>> >>
>> >><www.uea.ac.htm>www.uea.ac.uk/lcic
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >><mailto:p.metcalfeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>p.metcalfeatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>T +44 (0)1603 592583
>> >>
>> >>F +44 (0)1603 591549
>> >>
>> >>__________________________________________________
>> >>
>> >>This email may contain privileged information.
>> >>If you are not the intended recipient please
>> >>notify the sender and delete all copies.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>'Low Carbon Innovation Centre' and 'CRed' are
>> >>trading names of Low Carbon Innovation Centre
>> >>Limited, a company registered in England
>> >>(no.06525180) with its registered office at The
>> >>Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
>> >>NR4 7TJ The Carbon Connections fund is operated
>> >>by Carbon Connections UK Limited, a company
>> >>registered in England (no. 05906083) with its
>> >>registered office at The Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
>> R4
>> >> 7TJ
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Both Low Carbon Innovation Centre Limited and
>> >>Carbon Connections UK Limited are wholly owned
>> >>subsidiaries of the University of East Anglia
>> >>
>> >>----------
>> >>From: Clare Goodess [mailto:C.GoodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk]
>> >>Sent: 10 July 2009 17:10
>> >>To: Metcalfe Peter Mr (VCO)
>> >>Cc: Jones Philip Prof (ENV); Harpham Colin Dr (ENV)
>> >>Subject: RE: DEFRA Proposal
>> >>
>> >>Hi Pete
>> >>
>> >>I have spoken with Phil and Colin - and the
>> >>Defra project looks pretty straightforward.
>> >>
>> >>Colin reckons that data gets to BADC with a 2/3
>> >>month delay. And confirms that availability of
>> >>temperature data is better than other variables.
>> >>Also, Phil has suggested that there is a gridded
>> >>5 km observed data set that we can use to
>> >>extrapolate to other locations (as we have done
>> >>with weather generator parameters in UKCP09).
>> >>
>> >>And we would certainly be interested in
>> >>suggesting improvements to the current methodology.
>> >>
>> >>So, please could you send draft tender to Phil
>> >>and myself. If before, Wednesday, I can look at
>> >>it. And Phil will also have a quick look if
>> >>possible with email access and meeting schedule in Venice.
>> >>
>> >>With respect to the TSB competition, we think
>> >>the 23 July deadline is impossible. But we would
>> >>be interested in exploring future possibilities
>> >>with you and others with respect to these various buildings and energy
>> >> issues.
>> >>
>> >>On the TSB website, I noticed the Design for
>> >>Future Climate competition with a workshop on 13
>> >>October. This is definitely something we would
>> >>like to be involved with as it builds on UKCP09.
>> >>
>> >>Best wishes, Clare
>> >>
>> >>At 10:57 09/07/2009, you wrote:
>> >>
>> >>Sorry Clare, I had to get to Bedfordshire for a
>> >>meeting yesterday afternoon so didn't get a chance to e-mail you this.
>> >>
>> >>The Q and A document was produced after a
>> >>barrage of questions due to the lack of detail in the initial call.
>> >>
>> >>I have started filling in the SID3 tender
>> >>document so haven't included this. Hopefully I
>> >>will complete this draft by tomorrow.
>> >>
>> >>I hope this is OK.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Regards
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Pete
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>-----------------------------------------------------------------
>> >>
>> >>Peter Metcalfe
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>School of Environmental Science
>> >>
>> >>University of East Anglia
>> >>
>> >>Norwich
>> >>
>> >>UK
>> >>
>> >>NR4 7TJ
>> >>
>> >>T +44 (0)1603 592583
>> >>
>> >>F +44 (0)1603 591549
>> >>
>> >>-----------------------------------------------------------------
>> >>
>> >>----------
>> >>From: Clare Goodess [ mailto:C.GoodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk]
>> >>Sent: 08 July 2009 19:37
>> >>To: Metcalfe Peter Mr (VCO)
>> >>Subject: Re: DEFRA Proposal
>> >>
>> >>Dear Pete
>> >>
>> >>I'll talk to Colin about data tomorrow, and to
>> >>Phil about the tender on Friday. Please could you email the call text.
>> >>
>> >>Attached and below is some CV material/blurb for
>> >>myself, Phil and CRU. All stuff that is readily
>> >>to hand. So please edit as necessary.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Best wishes, Clare
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>The Climatic Research Unit (CRU), is a research
>> >>centre in the School of Environmental Sciences
>> >>at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in
>> >>Norwich. The school was graded 5* during the
>> >>last national Research Assessment Exercise. At
>> >>present, CRU is composed of around 15 research
>> >>staff, and 12 postgraduate students. Over the
>> >>last 35 years, CRU has gained a worldwide
>> >>reputation for the study of climate, climatic
>> >>change, the impacts of climate change and
>> >>applied climatology. It has provided
>> >>Co-ordinating Lead Authors for all four of the
>> >>IPCC Assessment Reports (Working Groups I and
>> >>II). CRU has become extensively involved in the
>> >>study of anthropogenically-induced climate
>> >>change and is at the forefront of work in the
>> >>analysis and understanding of observed climate
>> >>change and variability, climate scenario
>> >>development and downscaling and in impacts on
>> >>natural systems and socio-economic/technical
>> >>activities. A particular and growing emphasis
>> >>of CRU impacts and adaptation work relates to
>> >>the built environment and infrastructure.
>> >>
>> >>Prof Phil Jones is currently the Director of the
>> >>CRU and has wide experience in the analysis of
>> >>climate data and produces the global temperature
>> >>series, perhaps the most widely known series in
>> >>climatology. He has written extensively since
>> >>the late 1970s and has had over 120 papers (as
>> >>first author) published in peer-reviewed
>> >>journals and books. He is one of the Convening
>> >>Lead Authors on the Atmospheric Observations
>> >>Chapter for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
>> >>One of his current research projects, concerns
>> >>development of a stochastic weather generator as
>> >>part of the data delivery package for the next
>> >>national climate change scenarios - UKCIP08. He
>> >>co-ordinated the FP5 EMULATE project and is
>> >>involved in the ENSEMBLES integrated project.
>> >>
>> >>Dr Clare Goodess is a Senior Research Associate
>> >>and Research Manager with over 25 years
>> >>experience of contract research in the CRU. Her
>> >>main current research interest is climate
>> >>scenario construction, evaluation and use,
>> >>focusing on regional downscaling, extreme events
>> >>and the treatment of uncertainty. She
>> >>coordinated the Framework 5 European Union
>> >>funded STARDEX project on scenarios of extremes.
>> >>In Framework 6 she is the co-coordinator of work
>> >>on the production of probabilistic regional
>> >>climate projections in the ENSEMBLES integrated
>> >>project (
>> >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/ensembles/ScenariosPortal/
>> >>) and co-ordinator of integrating case-studies
>> >>within the CIRCE project on impacts of climate
>> >>change in the Mediterranean. She is a member of
>> >>the UKCIP08 steering group and the CIBSE climate
>> >>task force. She was also a member of the
>> >>steering group for the PII project 'Climate
>> >>change and the indoor environment: impacts and
>> >>adaptation'. For SKCC, she organised a workshop
>> >>on the use of probabilistic climate information
>> >>(
>> >>http://www.k4cc.org/events/workshops/probablistic-scenarios-workshop-review
>> >> ).
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Goodess, C.M., Hall, J., Best, M., Betts, R.,
>> >>Cabantous, L., Jones, P.D., Kilsby, C.G.,
>> >>Pearman, A. and Wallace, C.J., 2007: Climate
>> >>scenarios and decision making under uncertainty.
>> >>Built Environment, 33(1), 10-30.
>> >>Hacker, J.N., Belcher, S.E., Goodess, C.M.,
>> >>Holmes, M.J. and Roaf, S., 2007: Building scale
>> >>climate scenarios: inclusion of climate change
>> >>and application to the design of
>> >>climatically-sensitive buildings, Planning and Environment B, in
>> press.
>> >>
>> >>Haylock, M.R., Cawley, G.C., Harpham, C., Wilby,
>> >>R.L. and Goodess, C.M., 2006: Downscaling heavy
>> >>precipitation over the United Kingdom: A
>> >>comparison of dynamical and statistical methods
>> >>and their future scenarios. International
>> >>Journal of Climatology, 26, 1397-1415.
>> >>
>> >>Kilsby, C.G., Jones, P.D., Burton, A., Ford,
>> >>A.C., Fowler, H.J., Harpham, C., James, P.,
>> >>Smith, A. and Wilby, R.L., 2007: A daily weather
>> >>generator for use in climate change studies.
>> >>Environmental Modelling and Software, 22, 1705-1719.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the
>> >>University of East Anglia (UEA) has extensive
>> >>experience of provision of advanced climate
>> >>scenario information, including projections of
>> >>urban climate for SCORCHIO, the TCCRP and GLA,
>> >>and projects in the BKCC initiative (BETWIXT and
>> >>CRANIUM). UEA is now working with Newcastle
>> >>University in developing the weather generator
>> >>for the UKCIP08 scenarios and is partner in
>> >>EPSRC research (EP/F038224) with De Montfort
>> >>University focusing on the use of probabilistic
>> >>climate scenarios in building environmental
>> >>performance simulation (within the ARCC group of
>> >>funded projects). Prof Phil Jones has been
>> >>Director of CRU since 1998. He was Convening
>> >>Lead Author of the Chapter on Atmospheric
>> >>Observations in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report.
>> >>He has contributed to all the above projects in
>> >>the BKCC/SKCC/ARCC group, alongside
>> >>complementary research for the EA, UKWIR and
>> >>Defra. Dr Clare Goodess is a Senior Researcher
>> >>in the Climatic Research Unit at UEA. Her main
>> >>research interest is in the development and use
>> >>of regional climate change projections, with a
>> >>particular focus on extremes. She has played a
>> >>major role in the UEA projects focusing on the
>> >>built environment listed above. She is the
>> >>coordinator of work on probabilistic regional
>> >>climate projections in the ENSEMBLES project and
>> >>co-ordinator of integrating case-studies,
>> >>including three urban case studies, in the CIRCE
>> >>project on impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>At 16:55 03/07/2009, you wrote:
>> >>
>> >>Dear Clare,
>> >>
>> >>We hope to bid for a 3 year contract (minimum)
>> >>with DEFRA to analyse, quality check and report
>> >>the estate annual energy use (and carbon
>> >>emission) performance of the 21 government departments.
>> >>
>> >>We need to correct for temperature variability
>> >>using degree days for fair interannual
>> >>comparison of energy use data. Though we can
>> >>most likely do the work ourselves, and it's not
>> >>really climate science, writing into the bid an
>> >>advisory or notional involvement with expertise
>> >>from CRU would likely give us an edge in winning
>> >>it. I suppose our other option would be Weather
>> >>Quest, but I'm not sure they would add the academic credentials that
>> CRU
>> >> has.
>> >>
>> >>Would you be happy to have a quick chat about
>> >>involvement of someone from CRU in a paid
>> >>advisory capacity at some point next week?
>> >>
>> >>I can pop over to see you if you'd be happy to give me a time that
>> suits.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Thank you.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Pete
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>----------------------------------------------
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> >>
>> >>Peter Metcalfe
>> >>
>> >>Projects
>> >>
>> >>Low Carbon Innovation Centre
>> >>
>> >>ZICER Building
>> >>
>> >>University of East Anglia
>> >>
>> >>Norwich
>> >>
>> >>UK
>> >>
>> >>NR4 7TJ
>> >>
>> >><www.uea.ac.htm>www.uea.ac.uk/lcic
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >><mailto:p.metcalfeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>p.metcalfeatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>T +44 (0)1603 592583
>> >>
>> >>F +44 (0)1603 591549
>> >>
>> >>__________________________________________________
>> >>
>> >>This email may contain privileged information.
>> >>If you are not the intended recipient please
>> >>notify the sender and delete all copies.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>'Low Carbon Innovation Centre' and 'CRed' are
>> >>trading names of Low Carbon Innovation Centre
>> >>Limited, a company registered in England
>> >>(no.06525180) with its registered office at The
>> >>Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
>> >>NR4 7TJ The Carbon Connections fund is operated
>> >>by Carbon Connections UK Limited, a company
>> >>registered in England (no. 05906083) with its
>> >>registered office at The Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich,
>> R4
>> >> 7TJ
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Both Low Carbon Innovation Centre Limited and
>> >>Carbon Connections UK Limited are wholly owned
>> >>subsidiaries of the University of East Anglia
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Dr Clare Goodess
>> >>Climatic Research Unit
>> >>School of Environmental Sciences
>> >>University of East Anglia
>> >>Norwich
>> >>NR4 7TJ
>> >>UK
>> >>
>> >>Tel: +44 -1603 592875
>> >>Fax: +44 -1603 507784
>> >>Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
>> >> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>Dr Clare Goodess
>> >>Climatic Research Unit
>> >>School of Environmental Sciences
>> >>University of East Anglia
>> >>Norwich
>> >>NR4 7TJ
>> >>UK
>> >>
>> >>Tel: +44 -1603 592875
>> >>Fax: +44 -1603 507784
>> >>Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
>> >> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm
>> >>
>> >
>> > Dr Clare Goodess
>> > Climatic Research Unit
>> > School of Environmental Sciences
>> > University of East Anglia
>> > Norwich
>> > NR4 7TJ
>> > UK
>> >
>> > Tel: +44 -1603 592875
>> > Fax: +44 -1603 507784
>> > Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
>> > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>
> Dr Clare Goodess
> Climatic Research Unit
> School of Environmental Sciences
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
>
> Tel: +44 -1603 592875
> Fax: +44 -1603 507784
> Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm
>
>
>
>


No comments:

Post a Comment