from: merylyn hedger <mmhedgeratXYZxyzOS.demon.co.uk>
subject: UKCIP Summary report: possible revisions
Take a deep breath. I enclose Tom's comments.
I suggest that:
a) You think whether they have merit and if whether you can accommodate
his ideas, logistically.
b) I have told him that I am not convinced his proposals add a great
deal and that basically the report is yours.
I realise this must not be altogether welcome and I apologise for
UKCIP's seeming incoherence (for which I take responsibility). Please
reply by email to this address today, and then we can speak if
necessary. I am in and out of various (routine) medical appointments
today, back in Oxford tomorrow.
(The earlier email he refers to is the one sent yesterday).
Herein some thoughts...
Comments on scenarios summary document
My concerns with this summary are:
1. It needs a few technical details added in to make sure the
choice of scenarios is clear. These are fairly minor additions
suggested in an earlier email.
2. The distinction between scenario and forecast recurs in too many
places, as noted in my earlier email. I suggest the first para under
More Detail should begin with "We show more details..." Make sure the
qualifications and notes on probabilities are covered in the concluding
section on uncertainty.
3. Most importantly, the document fails to deliver a clear message.
However, there is some important news: the use of a range of scenarios
instead of one (eg CCIRG), more information now available (eg HADCM2),
CD-Rom oriented toward users, statements on extreme events, particularly
heat waves, others? Can we bring the significant conclusions to the
fore? Note that there is no conclusion section. Some ideas follow.
We could move preface to inside front cover. That would give us a full
page of summary and contents at the front (ie right-hand page). The
reader would automatically focus on this page as the most significant.
Or do away with the preface and begin the "Summary and Contents" below
with a short paragraph:
This summary of a Technical Report presents new scenarios of how the
climate of the UK may change over the next 100 years. The scenarios,
called the UKCIP98 scenarios, have been prepared for the UK Climate
Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The range of possible future climates will
assist stakeholders to carry out integrated assessments of climate
change impacts and responses.
[I don't think we need to call this introduction a preface, or to have
Then expand contents page:
Summary and Contents
Scenarios of climate change are fundamental aspects of impact
assessments. The UKCIP presents four scenarios that span a range of
possible future climates. These should be used to evaluate the
sensitivity of sectoral and regional impacts to climate change.
See pages 2-4.
Trends in the UK climate confirm a warming of 0.5 0 in the 20th Century,
with a marked decrease in the number of cold days. Trends in
precipitation and gales are less clear. See pages 4-5.
The four scenarios span a range of global average warming of 0.1 - 0.3 0
per decade, with concurrent increases in sea level and carbon dioxide
concentrations. See pages 5-6.
Warming in the UK will be similar to the global average, with more rapid
warming in the southeast compared to the northwest. Precipitation
changes are less consistent than for temperature and are fairly modest
on average until later in the 21st Century. See pages 6-9.
Additional climatic variables are available for the Medium-high
scenario-including climatic variability and extreme events. Changes in
variability and extremes are likely to be more important for many
impacts than changes in average climate. See pages 9-11.
These national climate scenarios may need to be supplemented with more
detailed regional scenarios, using a regional climate model or
statistical downscaling techniques.
See pages 11-12.
The scenarios enable evaluation of the magnitude of climate change
compared to natural climate variations. Other climate scenarios used by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change can be compared to the
UKCIP98 scenarios. And, major uncertainties remain, including the
potential for rapid climate change, future emission profiles and the
climate sensitivity. See pages 12-14.
A technical report, a CD-Rom of the UKCIP98 scenarios, and further
information are available from the UK Climate Impacts Programme and the
Climate Impacts LINK Project. See page 15.
NB: Put Figures 6 and 7 on facing pages. This will change the page