from: "Sheppard Sylvia \(SCI\) ks918" <Sylvia.SheppardatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: FW: RE: Simulating the economy - FAO Mr Vaughan - effects of
From: Jeremy Jones [mailto:jeremyjessopatXYZxyzoo.co.uk]
Sent: Saturday, July 22, 2006 3:22 PM
To: David Searby; Angus Tavner1; Angus Tavner2; Angus Tavner3; Terry
Thomas; Peter Toy; ClimaticResearch Unit; Vince Yallop; Enquiries
MetOffice; Rosemary Moore; Heather Needle; Green Party; Tim Pitt;
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Subject: Fwd: RE: Simulating the economy - FAO Mr Vaughan - effects of
Thought this might be of interest. Please just ignore, if not. JJ.
Fwd of response from HM Treasury to query about simultion of economic
collapse because of climate problems.
--- "Vaughan, Nicholas" <Nicholas.VaughanatXYZxyztreasury.x.gsi.gov.uk>
> Subject: RE: Simulating the economy - FAO Mr Vaughan - effects of
> Date: Wed, 19 Jul 2006 14:24:02 +0100
> From: "Vaughan, Nicholas" <Nicholas.VaughanatXYZxyztreasury.x.gsi.gov.uk>
> To: "Jeremy Jones" <jeremyjessopatXYZxyzoo.co.uk>, "Enquiries, CEU"
> CC: "Vaughan, Nicholas" <Nicholas.VaughanatXYZxyztreasury.x.gsi.gov.uk>
> Dear Mr Jones,
> Thank you for your e-mail, I manage the Treasury model and have been
> asked to reply.
> As we discussed previously the Treasury model is primarily a model of
> the economic activity described and recorded in the UK National
> Accounts, as such it is not well suited to modelling the impact of
> climate change.
> However, the Treasury does take climate change very seriously. The
> Chancellor announced on 19 July 2005 that he had asked Sir Nick Stern
> to lead a major review of the economics of climate change, to
> understand more comprehensively the nature of the economic challenges
> and how they can be met, in the UK and globally.
> You can find out more about the Stern Review from the Treasury
> As to modelling any economic collapse that might follow changes in the
> climate I can state that to the best of my knowledge no such modelling
> has been undertaken with the Treasury model.
> Moreover, any such modelling would require a very large set of extreme
> assumptions, and a great deal of judgement would have to be brought to
> bear alongside those assumptions in building or using any model to
> investigate these issues. This means the results of any such work
> would be extraordinarily uncertain and highly subjective. Apologies
> that I am unable to assist you further in such modelling.
> On a specific point you should note that estimates of crop yields and
> production are produced by the Dept for Environment, Food and Rural
> Affairs, some of these estimates are published in Table 6.2 in the
> Monthly Digest of Statistics. I include a link to the latest issue:
> I hope this is useful.
> Yours sincerely,
> Nicholas Vaughan
> HM Treasury
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jeremy Jones [mailto:jeremyjessopatXYZxyzoo.co.uk]
> Sent: 18 July 2006 17:36
> To: Enquiries, CEU
> Subject: Simulating the economy - FAO Mr Vaughan - effects of climate
> _Re: MODELLING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE_
> I wonder whether you can help me?
> I was in touch with a Mr Vaughan, about January 2005, on the subject
> of modelling the economy. He very kindly emailed me a list of
> variables covered in The Treasury's simulation. Sadly, since then, I
> seem to have deleted the correspondence from my email system, and,
> without researchign through notebooks, I may not be able to find his
> I have a question for him (or whoever now works in that position). I
> am, essentially, curious about modelling economic collapse.
> I have been watching the weather for some years, now, at a very
> amateur level. Over the last few years, we have seen worsening
> incidence of what, at first, I
> called 'summer mist', but which it may be more appropriate to call
> perhaps 'summer smog' (as I believe the BBC referred to it, recently).
> Also, I have been seeing curious effects on the rain. We now sometimes
> (though not always) get two sizes of raindrops forming. Ordinary
> large-sized drops that
> fall properly, and small drops that are so small that they are
> by gusts of wind, and do not fall properly. Also, we have had mists of
> smaller 'raindrops' pass over us - miles and miles of air filled with
> This is a very worrying development!
> Have a look at my web site for a video clip of the rain, together with
> a still photo showing 'vector' trails left by the various raindrops
> (using a flash
> photo) - large drops, long tail, vertical; small drops, short tail,
> every which way.
> See: http://www.jeremyjones.0catch.com
> All of which may seem to have little to do with the economy, however,
> I am worried that we are getting to the stage where we may find that
> our crops become stunted or damaged, or do not ripen, etc, by one or
> another effect. Perhaps the water will not touch ground, perhaps it
> will filter too much sun, perhaps, if this is all caused by UV, they
> will scorch. Perhaps the aerosol particles formed by the UV will
> poison us or the crops. Etc.
> If this is the case, then when this becomes clear, there are likely to
> be some fairly serious implications for the financial world. I am
> curious to know whether you have studied this using the Treasury model
> of the economy. And, if
> so, what results you get.
> To maybe add to the weight of what I have seen, a couple of satellites
> were put into orbit a month or so ago specifically to study the
> formation of aerosols and clouds, etc. See my site for a link to this.
> Also, if you take a look around a selection of webcams across the UK
> on a day when it is hazy with you, you are very likely to find that it
> is hazy in many other places.
> And, as far as I can tell, haze is also visible in many distance shots
> on news programmes, etc, in various parts of the world, now, on a
> routine basis.
> As is this was not bad enough, it turns out that the Met Office
> changed the way it measured visibility in 1997, going from looking out
> of the window to 'see how far they could see', to using instruments
> that provide a 'spot reading' of
> the visibility (or, I suppose, transmissibility) of air at that spot.
> therefore, impossible to produce a valid comparison of data from
> data after 97. See my site for links to University of East Anglia
> Research Unit, etc.
> So, all in all, I am getting to the stage where I see planetary
> end-game, and would very much like to know what we can expect, and in
> what order.
> At the point at which the general public concludes that severe
> disruption is inevitable, we are very likely to get panic.
> Some of the webcams - eg: Shoreham airport, show that one of the
> effects that might finally precipitate this is transport - if it gets
> to the stage when pilots simply refuse to take off, as it is too foggy
> to see, or it becomes too dangerous to drive, for the same reason,
> something must give. If have no idea what the precedent is for this,
> with the 1956 Clean Air Act, and what stage things had to get to then,
> but Act there was.
> Or, if nothing else, if crop yields go down, we will certainly see the
> farmers bleat! It might be interesting to look at yields over time,
> over the last few years, or possibly projections for this year.
> Hoping you are able to rise to the challenge!
> Jeremy Jones.
> Jeremy Jones
> Flat 307
> Parmentergate Court
> St John Street
> NR1 1PF
> 01603 610 760
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