date: Tue, 27 Feb 2007 11:31:50 -0500
from: "Thomas.R.Karl" <Thomas.R.KarlatXYZxyza.gov>
subject: Re: Climate Audit and our paper from 1990
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
We are going to develop a white paper over the next few weeks describing what we do and why
for urban corrections. I can see a Congressional inquiry on this!
Phil Jones said the following on 2/27/2007 11:22 AM:
An update. If you look again you will see even more - first on the
Russian network, now the Chinese - they have yet to get to the
Australian networks! They probably won't get to Australia, as
they won't be able to bring out all their prejudices about life in
Russia and China. Pasha will have heard of all the stupid things
said about Russia in the Soviet days.
I have had a request for the data from McIntyre, but I am not sending
the data. I am already tried and convicted, so there is no point
in sending them anything. I will not bother replying as well. I might
as well act as expected. They will run out of steam in a week or two
and move onto something else.
There is a clear thread running through the comments. By the way,
CRU isn't changing any of the current data that is coming in on the
CLIMAT system, except where it is wrong. We are getting Australia
directly as their CLIMAT messages don't calculate monthly means
as they used to pre-1994, and for a few sites in eastern Canada,
where Lucie Vincent developed homogeneous series - but adjusted
them to the pre-1960 period.
Remember this paper !
Jones, P.D., Groisman, P.Ya., Coughlan, M., Plummer, N., Wang, W-C. and Karl, T.R.,
1990: Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over
land. Nature 347, 169-172.
Well on this web site, the work is being hotly debated!
Their renewed interest seems to stem from modifications NCDC are
making to USHCN and as I hear from Tom Peterson to their global and
hemispheric averages. Ridiculous statements are being made about the
NCDC work modifying data to make recent warming greater - and more
like the CRU data! On the Russian part of our study, the old chestnut of
temperature data being modified in Soviet days to make the data cooler
during the 1930s and 1940s! Also the Russian network failing apart when
the Soviet Union came to an end.
No doubt this will surface somewhere when the Chapter from AR4 comes
out. We still refer to this paper, but there are more recent studies by
Tom Peterson and David Parker. These studies and some earlier ones by
Tom Karl are still the only ones to look at the issue over large scales.
Anyway, I'd just thought I'd warn you all in case they ever get their act
together (and stop their diatribes).
I'd thought I'd also welcome you to the Hockey Team (but you're all
reserves) - to get onto the ice, you have to do some paleo work!
Wei-Chung therefore has a good chance of playing some day.
It's also good that we're all still working hard in the field, most of us
writing less unfortunately as we're higher up the ladder!
1990 seems a long time ago ! By the way, I do have the data
from the study on disk! I was wise even when Steve McIntyre first
requested the data many years ago. I think I could replicate the
study if I had that rare commodity - time.
The penultimate paragraph of the 1990 paper was mainly written by
Tom - thanks. It even has pre-IPCC definitions of likelihood!
Neil - can you pass this on with my best wishes to Mike.
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk