Saturday, March 17, 2012

2601.txt

date: Wed, 19 Nov 1997 16:41:12 -0800
from: hm_pitcheratXYZxyzail.pnl.gov (Hugh M Pitcher)
subject: scenarios meeting
to: m.hulmeatXYZxyz.AC.UK

Mike,

The question put to me by Richard Moss is whether we have or could create an
emissions scenario which approximates the forcing used in the three scenarios
for the TGCIA. We certainly can do this, but I would have to be able to convert
the forcing from Magicc to the carbon equivalent expression used in the attached
table. Is there some simple way to do this, or do we again get lost in the
issue of atmospheric lifetimes etc. I would appreciate any advice you have on
how to make the computation.

thanks!!

cheers,

hugh
______________________________ Forward Header __________________________________
Subject: scenarios meeting
Author: rh_mossatXYZxyz.gov (Richard Moss) at -SMTPLink
Date: 11/18/97 6:08 PM


Hugh:

We've been able to arrange the meeting, and so Naki, Cynthia, and I will
get together. Seems like too good an opportunity to waste. I would like to
talk to you beforehand.

As a prelude to this, I'm sending detailed information about the forcings
used in each of the model runs selected by the TGCIA (courtesy of Maria
Noguer at WG I TSU). The issue is what it indicates about providing
socio-economic data from one of the new scenarios, to accompany the climate
data. We would need to make sure that the forcings were approximately the
same. We should talk about when it might be possible to determine this for
the new scenarios. Of course the GHG and aerosol forcing is not exactly the
same as IS92 a either, although it is pretty close. The problem with the
socio-economic data for the latter is that not all of the variables
requested by the impacts community are available.

Hadley forcing info in a MS word file attached (because of tabular info).
Others follow below:

-----------
GFDL forcing (Haywood et al, 1997):

300-year model integrations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations only,
increasing sulphate and increasing greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol
concentrations. The integrations are performed form 1765 to 2065.

the experiment uses estimates of past, present and future sulphate and
equivalent CO2 concentration from IS92a (IPCC (1992)); these are identical to
those used in the Hadley Model (HADCM2) hh see above. The direct radiative
forcing of sulphate aerosol is simulated by increasing the surface albedo
(similar to the Hadley model but with slightly different coefficients to
calculate the increase in surface albedo)

In the control integration the concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulphate
aerosol are held constant.


DKRZ/MPI forcing (ECHAM3/LSG)

The ECHAM3/LSG model uses the same greenhouse gas/sulphate aerosol forcing as
the Hadley model (HADCM2). The simulation starts in 1880 and run to 2050
(sulphate experiments) and to 2085 (greenhouse gases only). Contrary to the
HADCM2 simulation, the ECHAM3/LSG simulation uses a time-dependent aerosol
pattern. To gain a better statistical representation, the aerosol experiment was
carried out twice with a slight modification in the aerosol forcing field.

--------------
I'll be at PNNL tomorrow morning to attend a benefits briefing and will try
to look you up immediately after.

Richard

p.s. to Mike H -- please let me know what you think as well.

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end
NOTE NEW ADDRESS AND PHONE NUMBERS EFFECTIVE MONDAY 25 AUGUST
IPCC Working Group II TSU
400 Virginia Avenue SW
Washington, DC 20024 USA
General number: 1 202 314-2225
Direct number: 1 202 314-2224
Fax: 1 202 488-8678
email: rmossatXYZxyzcrp.gov or ipccatXYZxyzcrp.gov

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