date: Tue Feb 10 16:42:03 2009
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Visit to Met Office
to: David Parker <david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
David, Peter, Ian,
Let's go for the week with Feb 25/26 in it. I could come down
for late on the 25th then spend most of the 26th discussing
Ian's work and also the Antarctic ideas. Presumably John Prior
and others will be available at some point on the 26th.
The Antarctic surface T data that are in CRUTEM3 have come
from my searches over the years and also from READER. Much of the
early stuff in READER has come from the archives here, except
where BAS have got the original digitized data from the Antarctic
Institutes in all the countries.
I also have some files of when some of the manned stations on the
ice have moved. These are forced moves, as the station moves, but they
have never been accounted for. Halley and Casey are affected.
There are issues to discuss about the AWSs and also, as David knows
from AOPC, work that Wisconsin are doing in putting together all
the historic US series. I've talked to them about this - mainly to try and
stop them calculating mean T a different way. If they do this it will
screw their series up. It all relates to them saying that the mean of
min and max is not a great way in the Antarctic to calculate mean T.
They say they can now do the mean of every 3 hours, but it needs the
historic series and the routine updating to change at the same
time - which is unlikely to happen.
At 18:13 09/02/2009, David Parker wrote:
Thanks. I think Feb 25-26 is better as Peter, who suggested the Reader-
data project, will be away in the first week of March. Ian will be here
except, I think, on Feb 27th when he is going to a chess tournament. The
hotel next to the Met Office should be OK but I haven't checked
availability - that can be done when the date is chosen.
On Mon, 2009-02-09 at 16:53 +0000, Phil Jones wrote:
> I think I misinterpreted your email when in Switzerland. I think I thought
> you wanted a talk and a possible project. Now I read it and it is just a
> possible project.
> I've done a lot with the Antarctic temperature data - I also have an
> archive of MSLP data for most sites (for some it is station level pressure).
> With regards homogeneity it is difficult to do much beyond the Peninsula
> (and be confident about anything) as the stations are too far apart. There is
> an issue I could ask Adrian - whether ERA-INTERIM is good enough since
> 1988? This could also assess the AVHRR, but this may be circular.
> I've read Steig et al now, and I can see all the comments on the CA and
> RC sites about some of the data. It seems that BAS have made some mistakes
> with some of the AWS sites. The only AWS site used in CRUTEM3 is the one
> at Byrd, as this is at one of the manned sites. The issue with the AWS's is
> getting reasonable data in real time. Whilst I was away the checked monthly
> data arrived for 2002! I will add Byrd's data in. The problem is
> that some sites
> get buried, but still seem to transmit.
> What Steig et al have done is a paleo-type reconstruction of the
> full field
> from the AVHRR for a recent period and extended it back to 1957. If the
> data are OK, all you're assuming is that covariance structure
> remains the same.
> I did this paper (attached) ages ago, but it doesn't seem all
> that relevant.
> Anyway - I do need to come down to see Ian. Possibilities would be coming
> mid week, say Feb 25/26 or March 4/5. How do these dates suit? I'd need to
> spend the night - maybe that Travel-lodge near you, it is only one night!
> At 16:04 30/01/2009, David Parker wrote:
> >Thanks. I hope the GCOS meeting goes well: Roger Saunders will be there.
> >We look forward to your thoughts on the Antarctic data, and to your
> >visit whenever that may be convenient for you,
> >On Fri, 2009-01-30 at 15:56 +0000, P.JonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk wrote:
> > > David,
> > > The Swiss extremes workshop has afternoons off for skiing.
> > > As I don't, I've been on 60 or 90 mins walks along snow covered
> > > trails. Snow is 1m deep off the trails.
> > > Anyway back now. So looking at emails. As the sun drops,
> > > the temperature plummets. I'm at the GCOS Imp Plan meeting
> > > next week in Geneva. Back in CRU on Feb 6.
> > > I've been reading the Steig et al paper. I've looked
> > > at homogeneity issues with the Antarctic data in the past.
> > > Difficult to do much except in the Peninsula. Anyway,
> > > I'll give your proposal some thought. Will talk to others
> > > like Kevin T next week as well about the paper.
> > > Glad to hear Ian is settling. It would be a good idea
> > > to do two things on the visit. I'm sure we can think of more!
> > > Glad also you're helping out Brian. I just couldn't
> > > rearrange my UEA teaching again - already done this so I can
> > > be here now and Geneva next week.
> > >
> > > Have a good weekend - if a little cold!
> > >
> > > Cheers
> > > Phil
> > >
> > > > Phil
> > > >
> > > > Peter Thorne and others have suggested that you visit us in the near
> > > > future to set up a project in which CRU would homogenise the "Reader"
> > > > surface temperature data for Antarctica. This subject arose in
> > > > connection with Steig et al.'s paper on Antarctic temperatures in last
> > > > week's NATURE, and is also relevant to the possibility that we may
> > > > include interpolations over the Arctic Ocean and Antarctica in our
> > > > analyses for IPCC AR5. Peter challenges the results of Steig et al. on
> > > > the grounds that the in situ surface temperatures may not be
> > > > homogeneous. Maybe you could even give a seminar on e.g. Antarctic
> > > > observations.
> > > >
> > > > Please let me know when a visit would be convenient for you. You could,
> > > > of course, combine it with a review of Ian's progress. Ian is now well-
> > > > settled into using our computing systems, and has started to calculate
> > > > r-bar from the daily precipitation fields for the UK regions, with a
> > > > view to estimating uncertainties in the regionally-averaged daily
> > > > values. As a cross-check, and to gain a deeper appreciation of this
> > > > myself, I have independently written some software to calculate r-bar.
> > > > This is leading to some ideas which I will send to you when I have had
> > > > more time to think them through.
> > > >
> > > > I understand you're busy as I am expecting to attend the Malaria meeting
> > > > at Imperial on 12-13 Feb when you aren't available.
> > > >
> > > > Hope you've had good meetings in Geneva
> > > >
> > > > David
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK
> > > > E-mail: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
> > > > Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK
> >E-mail: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
> >Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk