Friday, March 23, 2012

2763.txt

date: Tue May 23 14:21:27 2000
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: NCAR-PCM
to: Martin D Crossley <M.CrossleyatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

Martin,

Please email Jerry Meehl regarding this problem:

<meehlatXYZxyzker.ucar.edu>

Say you are working for me with regard to the IPCC DDC. See if he can explain why in the NCAR PCM3 run the forced climate is *cooler* than the control climate for until the 2040s or so. You could include the numbers calculated below for his information.

Please cc correspondence to me.

Mike


At 14:28 22/05/00 +0100, you wrote:
>Mike,
>
>I've checked my program thoroughly and can see no
>obvious bug. And as I mentioned, the routine for
>tackling NCAR-PCM is exactly the same as that used
>for every other GCM except that the input files
>for the 61-90 period are taken from a different
>directory.
>
>I also checked that the 61-90 mean from the control
>run is comparable with the means from other GCMs,
>and they look very similar to me in the cases I
>checked.
>
>I've included the time series below, both for the
>business-as-usual run (NCPGS1B) and the stabilisation
>run (NCPGS1S).
>Note that although I include annual means for the
>control data for the period 1960-1999, I only use
>1961-1990 in forming the mean.
>
>Martin
>
>
>YEAR NCPGS1B
>6190 286.74277
>
>[control :]
>1960 -0.08875
>1961 -0.20856
>1962 -0.13785
>1963 0.02277
>1964 -0.03659
>1965 0.05637
>1966 -0.00839
>1967 -0.13828
>1968 -0.19644
>1969 -0.11133
>1970 0.07605
>1971 -0.03027
>1972 -0.09387
>1973 0.22214
>1974 -0.06079
>1975 0.06351
>1976 0.10175
>1977 0.17221
>1978 0.16547
>1979 0.04883
>1980 0.07635
>1981 -0.10385
>1982 -0.08041
>1983 0.00983
>1984 0.24872
>1985 0.02594
>1986 -0.03339
>1987 -0.00064
>1988 -0.01929
>1989 0.03671
>1990 -0.06699
>1991 -0.12717
>1992 0.01978
>1993 -0.04269
>1994 -0.01257
>1995 -0.00006
>1996 -0.11758
>1997 0.00540
>1998 -0.02951
>1999 -0.00125
>
>[business-as-usual run :]
>2000 -0.76505
>2001 -0.86383
>2002 -0.86072
>2003 -0.75986
>2004 -0.61319
>2005 -0.79550
>2006 -0.69528
>2007 -0.74429
>2008 -0.64893
>2009 -0.71072
>2010 -0.57574
>2011 -0.54633
>2012 -0.71234
>2013 -0.71426
>2014 -0.65005
>2015 -0.70306
>2016 -0.58679
>2017 -0.57159
>2018 -0.53305
>2019 -0.59741
>2020 -0.63260
>2021 -0.50385
>2022 -0.60010
>2023 -0.42813
>2024 -0.36652
>2025 -0.45493
>2026 -0.41818
>2027 -0.44031
>2028 -0.35416
>2029 -0.29910
>2030 -0.55313
>2031 -0.41995
>2032 -0.55869
>2033 -0.57980
>2034 -0.36691
>2035 -0.32251
>2036 -0.37299
>2037 -0.26385
>2038 -0.22482
>2039 -0.19165
>2040 -0.01492
>2041 -0.30432
>2042 -0.20059
>2043 -0.21194
>2044 -0.20837
>2045 -0.11777
>2046 -0.12970
>2047 -0.04547
>2048 -0.02649
>2049 -0.09222
>2050 -0.02792
>2051 0.00357
>2052 0.09216
>2053 0.12808
>2054 0.22534
>2055 0.15384
>2056 0.31268
>2057 0.35822
>2058 0.33572
>2059 0.12524
>2060 0.36258
>2061 0.41537
>2062 0.27356
>2063 0.24460
>2064 0.53967
>2065 0.54297
>2066 0.39804
>2067 0.30899
>2068 0.42349
>2069 0.53351
>2070 0.58847
>2071 0.48438
>2072 0.58530
>2073 0.36227
>2074 0.61975
>2075 0.67456
>2076 0.61359
>2077 0.74884
>2078 0.87296
>2079 0.62286
>2080 0.62402
>2081 0.71304
>2082 0.85803
>2083 0.68823
>2084 0.79315
>2085 0.76871
>2086 0.70645
>2087 0.81143
>2088 0.86765
>2089 0.87503
>2090 1.02676
>2091 0.90891
>2092 1.05710
>2093 1.02731
>2094 0.98199
>2095 0.87946
>2096 0.97684
>2097 1.09155
>2098 1.09805
>2099 0.94574
>
>
>YEAR NCPGS1S
>6190 286.74277
>
>[stabilisation run :]
>2005 -0.57910
>2006 -0.86676
>2007 -0.74680
>2008 -0.70819
>2009 -0.73660
>2010 -0.74423
>2011 -0.64572
>2012 -0.80518
>2013 -0.80658
>2014 -0.76810
>2015 -0.58145
>2016 -0.58902
>2017 -0.75735
>2018 -0.59406
>2019 -0.49078
>2020 -0.49503
>2021 -0.50415
>2022 -0.42328
>2023 -0.59503
>2024 -0.53708
>2025 -0.47845
>2026 -0.41052
>2027 -0.51160
>2028 -0.46021
>2029 -0.33868
>2030 -0.44501
>2031 -0.29114
>2032 -0.30960
>2033 -0.18628
>2034 -0.34482
>2035 -0.30707
>2036 -0.29611
>2037 -0.32172
>2038 -0.28311
>2039 -0.14508
>2040 -0.31396
>2041 -0.26520
>2042 -0.25455
>2043 -0.16681
>2044 -0.10486
>2045 -0.32779
>2046 -0.21799
>2047 -0.14157
>2048 -0.02283
>2049 0.03479
>2050 -0.03860
>2051 0.06427
>2052 0.05716
>2053 0.17859
>2054 0.00177
>2055 -0.01874
>2056 0.09573
>2057 0.27472
>2058 0.13254
>2059 0.02664
>2060 0.21222
>2061 0.07574
>2062 0.20096
>2063 0.21109
>2064 0.23303
>2065 0.22922
>2066 0.29306
>2067 0.24631
>2068 0.35562
>2069 0.36069
>2070 0.51767
>2071 0.40424
>2072 0.36377
>2073 0.47241
>2074 0.36966
>2075 0.37009
>2076 0.45740
>2077 0.45422
>2078 0.43167
>2079 0.31277
>2080 0.44144
>2081 0.41150
>2082 0.38437
>2083 0.30783
>2084 0.25665
>2085 0.33255
>2086 0.32611
>2087 0.41238
>2088 0.50351
>2089 0.45911
>2090 0.41510
>2091 0.49271
>2092 0.63751
>2093 0.40604
>2094 0.61823
>2095 0.70343
>2096 0.50998
>2097 0.55185
>2098 0.52338
>2099 0.66074
>
>

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