Sunday, March 25, 2012

2849.txt

cc: tar_la@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_reved@earth.usgcrp.gov, wgii.bureau@earth.usgcrp.gov, ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov
date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:24:21 -0500
from: ddokkenatXYZxyzcrp.gov (Dave Dokken)
subject: Approved WG3 TAR Outline
to: tar_claatXYZxyzth.usgcrp.gov

IPCC WORKING GROUP III
THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT OUTLINE
Climate Change: Mitigation


SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS

TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Chapter 0: Introduction

Road map to the report

Chapter 1: Scope of the report

Executive Summary
1.1 The historical context of climate change mitigation
1.2 Policy-relevant scientific questions
1.3 Development, sustainability and equity in climate change mitigation
in different sectors: key social, behavioural, ecological and economic
issues
1.4 Alternative development pathways (e.g. structural change, social
development)
1.5 Decision-making frameworks: an introduction

Chapter 2: Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios and implications

Executive Summary
2.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR
2.2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: summary and differences with TAR
2.3 Scenarios: definitions, methodologies, advantages and limitations
2.4 Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios, including scenarios
that lead to stabilisation of the concentration of GHGs, and the associated
socio-economic and technological assumptions
2.5 Policy implications of scenarios: development, sustainability and
equity, technological change, timing, flexibility, robustness of options,
relationships

Chapter 3: Technological and economic potential of GHG emissions reduction

[Chapter 3 deals with agricultural emissions of GHGs, chapter 4 deals with
GHG emissions from forestry and carbon sequestration. ]

Executive Summary
3.1 Introduction: summary of the SAR, progress since the SAR,
definitions, time frame, regional breakdown, link with scenarios
3.2 Drivers of technological change and innovation
3.2.1 Research, development and demonstration
3.2.2 Societal and institutional factors, including market creation
3.3 For each of the following sectors:
3.3.1 Buildings
3.3.2 Transport
3.3.3 Industry
3.3.4 Agriculture
3.3.5 Wastes
3.3.6 Energy supply, including non-renewable and renewable resources,
physical CO2 removal

[The following issues are covered:
* Summary of SAR
* Historic and future trends
* Different greenhouse gases
* New technological and other options, including social and behavioural
issues, consumption patterns
* Regional differences
* Technical and economic potential]

Chapter 4: Technological and economic potential of options to enhance,
maintain and manage biological carbon reservoirs and geo-engineering

Executive Summary
4.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR
4.2 Special Report on Land-use, Land-use Change and Forestry: summary
and relationship with SAR
4.3 Potential of terrestrial ecosystems to enhance sinks and mitigate
CO2 emissions, taking into account competition with biofuel resources
4.4 Strategies: market and non-market options to enhance, maintain and
manage biological carbon reservoirs
4.5 Socio-economic evaluation of mitigation options
4.6 Environmental evaluation of mitigation options, including influence
on non-CO2 GHGs
4.7 Enhanced human-induced biological CO2 uptake in oceans and
freshwater reservoirs and other types of geo-engineering

Chapter 5: Barriers, opportunities and market potential of technologies and
practices

[This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 3, 4 and 6]

Executive Summary
5.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR
5.2 Summary of the Special Report on Technology Transfer
5.3 Financial, technological, political, legal, institutional, social
and behavioural barriers and opportunities
5.4 Sector and technology-specific barriers, opportunities and market
potential for the following sectors:
5.4.1 Buildings
5.4.2 Transport
5.4.3 Industry
5.4.4 Agriculture
5.4.5 Forestry
5.4.6 Wastes
5.4.7 Energy supply
5.5 Case studies illustrating barriers, opportunities as they are
influenced by policies and measures (linking section with chapter 6)

Chapter 6: Policies, measures and instruments

[This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 5, 8, and 9]

Executive Summary
6.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR
6.2 National and international policy making context; relationships
between national development policies and climate change mitigation:
constraints, conflicts and "win-win" options
6.3 International policies and measures for mitigation
6.3.1 (combinations of) economic instruments, regulatory instruments,
technology transfer, other
6.3.2 mechanisms contained in the articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto Protocol
6.3.3 social, behavioural, economic and institutional aspects, including
equity, regional differences, investment patterns
6.4 National and sectoral policies and measures
6.4.1 (combinations of) economic instruments, regulatory instruments,
voluntary agreements, R&D policies, innovation promotion, other
6.4.2 social, behavioural, economic and institutional aspects, including
equity, regional differences
6.5 Interrelations between international and national policies,
measures and instruments
6.6 Case studies illustrating barriers and opportunities as they are
influenced by policies and measures (linking section with chapter 5)

Chapter 7: Costing methodologies for mitigation (co-ordinated with WG-II)

[This chapter should provide guidance to chapters 8 and 9. Methods for
valuation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change and methods for
costing of adaptation are addressed in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits
decision making context is addressed in TAR WG-III, chapter 10.]

Executive Summary
7.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR; coverage,
definitions
7.2 Important elements of costing methodologies at micro, meso and
macro scale: including discount rates, equity and development aspects,
importance of baselines, "system boundaries", uncertainties, market
failures and externalities, revenue recycling, valuation of ancillary
benefits, "win-win" options, differences between theory and practice
7.3 Issues in cost methodologies, including effects on income, equity,
employment, trade, inflation, interest rates, availability of capital
7.4 Different approaches to cost assessments: top-down models, sector
models, bottom-up analyses, hybrid models

Chapter 8: Global, regional and national costs and ancillary benefits of
mitigation

[This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 2, 6, 7 and 9;
valuation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change is addressed in
TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in
TAR WG-III, chapter 10.]

Executive Summary
8.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR; coverage and
definitions
8.2 Global, regional and national impacts of international mitigation
policies and measures on such factors as (a) aggregate demand, terms of
trade, employment, income distribution (b) social and environmental
ancillary benefits
8.3 Global, regional and national impacts of domestic mitigation
policies and measures on such factors as (as) aggregate demand, terms of
trade, employment, income distribution, (b) social and environmental
ancillary benefits
8.4 Spill-over effects: social, environmental and economic effects of
measures in countries on other countries
8.5 Social, environmental and economic impacts of alternative pathways
for meeting a range of concentration stabilisation levels
8.6 Discussion on why studies differ: influence of methods and
baselines, the role of assumptions, including those on technology
development

Chapter 9: Sector costs and ancillary benefits of mitigation

[This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 2, 6, 7 and 8;
evaluation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change is addressed
in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in
TAR WG-III, chapter 10.]

Executive Summary
9.1 Introduction: summary or SAR and progress since SAR
9.2 Economic, social, and environmental impacts of policies and
measures on prices, economic output, employment competitiveness and trade
relations at the sector and subsector level
9.3 Spill-over effects: social, environmental and economic effects of
measures in countries on sectors in other countries
9.4 Social, environmental and economic impacts on sectors of
alternative pathways for meeting a range of concentration stabilisation
levels
9.5 Discussion on why studies differ: influence of methods and
baselines, the role of assumptions, including those on technology transfer

Chapter 10: Decision making frameworks (co-ordinated with WG-II)

Executive Summary
10.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR, different
decision making frameworks
10.2 Policy-relevant scientific questions in climate change response, e.g.
* Relationships between adaptation and mitigation
* Relationships between early and delayed response
* Relationships between domestic mitigation and the use of international
mechanisms such as those contained in the Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the
Protocol
* Mitigation by countries and sectors: equity and cost-effectiveness
considerations
* How can technology development, diffusion and transfer be facilitated to
mitigate and adapt to climate change?
10.3 Decision analysis studies: e.g. cost-effectiveness, least cost,
cost-benefit, tolerable windows/safe landing, risk management/decision
making under uncertainty
10.4 Comparing available decision analyses with current decision making:
global, regional and national implementation of the FCCC and implications
of the Kyoto Protocol, Interaction with other objectives, Public and
private sector decision making
10.5 Key aspects of decision making by looking at the literature beyond
the economic and environmental sciences
10.6 Analysis of policy relevant scientific questions: integrating
insights from different disciplines and Chapters 1-9 of TAR WG III


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