Tuesday, March 27, 2012

2866.txt

date: Thu Sep 25 09:53:04 2008
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: EU 2009 call and tree rings
to: John Grace <jgraceatXYZxyzac.uk>

John
sorry about missing question - yes many tree-ring people in the past have "seen" various
cycles in tree-ring records and often attributed them to solar forcing . Virtually all of
the work lacks rigour in terms of proper testing of he phase of associations or realistic
tests of the significance. A decade or so back there was a virtual industry in Russia -
driven largely by the political need for palaeo work to demonstrate prognostic value. I am
posting a brief review article I wrote some years ago that has a few relevant references.
There have been one or two papers since from Russian workers, but again not convincing to
my mind.
Keith
At 08:26 25/09/2008, you wrote:

Dear Keith
I have the feeling that tree-rings have a really important role in understanding
inter-annual variability and response to extreme events. I've just been looking at some
data from Andre Granier - he's a physiologist and one of the things he's been doing is
measuring tree increments over a few years. Of course there was a big drought France in
2003. The increment was reduced by a bit in 2003 but much more in 2004. Now it's back to
normal. I think analysis of the sort of data that dendrochronologists have would help us
understand these responses, as one has so many years of record.
Did you see the second part of my message- about 11 year cycles?
John
Keith Briffa wrote:

Thanks for the response John. I fully understand the points you make. I was only
considering the possibility of a small role for here in any project looking at the role
of forests past and future in Europe - I thought that the specific focus on inter-annual
to decadal time scales in the call might imply a possibility that tree-rings , and their
potential for validating tree process models , and links to larger scale (Dynamic
vegetation and GCM) models might represent a useful angle for research. I would still be
grateful if you could bare this in mind when participating in the meeting you describe.
Very best wishes
Keith
At 11:09 24/09/2008, you wrote:

Dear Keith
Next week I'm at the Carboeurope annual meeting, and there is a meeting of the Exec
committee when we'll discuss tactics. There is of course the view that we need a 'son of
carboeurope' but the funding available is now much less than we have at present. There
will be a significant push to develop the atmospheric measurements of GHGs further.
Forests might get squeezed out. Among those who support the tree ring stuff is Schultze,
but he's retiring now. However, Janssens, Nabuurs, Loustau, Granier, Magnani and others
will be at the meeting.
I think the model/tree ring stuff is important and could make an excellent proposal, but
I'm not sure if it would be competitive with tall towers/aircraft. Can I contact you
after this meeting - I'll know how the land lies then.
I've been thinking of contacting you about another matter. Do dendrochronologists find a
11- year cycle in tree ring indices?
Best wishes
John
Keith Briffa wrote:

John
are you planning a submission under 6.1.1.3 (The Global carbon cycle- greenhouse gas
budgets) in 2009 call on the Environment (theme 6)?
European Commission C(2008) 4598 of 28th August 2008)
I genuinely believe that a combined process model/ empirical tree-ring approach could
contribute much in mid to high latitudes given the annual to decadal focus here. We
would be very willing to join a joint submission.
What do you think?
best wishes
Keith
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

--
Professor John Grace
Professor of Environmental Biology
School of GeoSciences
Crew Building
University of Edinburgh
Edinburgh EH9 3JN
phone + 44 (0)131 650 5400
fax + 44 (0)131 662 0478
email jgraceatXYZxyzac.uk
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

--
Professor John Grace
Professor of Environmental Biology
School of GeoSciences
Crew Building
University of Edinburgh
Edinburgh EH9 3JN
phone + 44 (0)131 650 5400
fax + 44 (0)131 662 0478
email jgraceatXYZxyzac.uk
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

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