Tuesday, March 27, 2012


date: Wed Oct 14 13:51:06 2009
from: Tom Melvin <t.m.melvinatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Finland Conference
to: Keith


By June we are unlikely to have the long Eurasian paper ready to discuss.
Would it be better for you to present on Divergence e.g.


1. Problem with curve-fitting e.g. Hugershoff (Briffa 1998) and trend distortion - part solution Signal free.

2. Problem with mixing sloping and horizontal curve fitting in Arstan (e.g. D'Arrigo 2004) - part solution RCS.

3. End effect problems with RCS (Briffa - Hughes book) - e.g. sample bias

4. Problem with updating chronologies (TTHH and Grudd 2008, Tornetrask)

5. Potential problem with Crown dieback (e.g. responders / non responders)

6. Potential MXD in sapwood problem ????

7. Potential competition problem - tree density changes RCS shape (Helama 2006)

8. Problem with non-linear response / skewed index distribution (Barber, Wilmking etc)

9. Remove all these and residual is real divergence - problem with identifying cause:
CO2 change / Nitrogen fertilisation / Global dimming / UV light / Drought stress/

Conclusion - Lots of work to do to clarify situation.

I would present on PBS//GUESS work.

We need to prepare abstracts in next week or so.


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