Tuesday, March 27, 2012

2884.txt

cc: Kevin Trenberth <trenbertatXYZxyzr.edu>, Stephen H Schneider <shsatXYZxyznford.edu>, Myles Allen <allenatXYZxyz.ox.ac.uk>, peter stott <peter.stottatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, "Philip D. Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Benjamin Santer <santer1atXYZxyzl.gov>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.KarlatXYZxyza.gov>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, James Hansen <jhansenatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichaelatXYZxyznceton.EDU>
date: Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:57:10 -0600
from: Tom Wigley <wigleyatXYZxyzr.edu>
subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
to: Michael Mann <mannatXYZxyzeo.psu.edu>

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Mike,

The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical
runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the
match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low
climate sensitivity -- compensating errors. In my (perhaps too harsh)
view, there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model
results by individual authors and by IPCC. This is why I still use
results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least
here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and
forcing assumptions/uncertainties.

Tom.

+++++++++++++++++++

Michael Mann wrote:
> thanks Tom,
>
> I've taken the liberty of attaching a figure that Gavin put together the
> other day (its an update from a similar figure he prepared for an
> earlier RealClimate post. see:
> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/05/moncktons-deliberate-manipulation/).
> It is indeed worth a thousand words, and drives home Tom's point below.
> We're planning on doing a post on this shortly, but would be nice to see
> the Sep. HadCRU numbers first,
>
> mike
>
> On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote:
>
>> Dear all,
>>
>> At the risk of overload, here are some notes of mine on the recent
>> lack of warming. I look at this in two ways. The first is to look at
>> the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic trend
>> relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second is to remove
>> ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the observed data.
>>
>> Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The second
>> method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.
>>
>> These sums complement Kevin's energy work.
>>
>> Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of
>> warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I do not
>> agree with this.
>>
>> Tom.
>>
>> +++++++++++++++++++++++
>>
>> Kevin Trenberth wrote:
>>> Hi all
>>> Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We
>>> are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past
>>> two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow.
>>> The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it
>>> smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was
>>> about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low.
>>> This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was
>>> canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing
>>> weather).
>>> Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning:
>>> tracking Earth's global energy. /Current Opinion in Environmental
>>> Sustainability/, *1*, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [PDF]
>>> <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/EnergyDiagnostics09final.pdf>
>>> (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)
>>> The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the
>>> moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published
>>> in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even
>>> more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is
>>> inadequate.
>>> That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC
>>> are tracking PDO on a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with
>>> ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the change in ENSO not real
>>> PDO. It surely isn't decadal. The PDO is already reversing with the
>>> switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for
>>> first time since Sept 2007. see
>>> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.ppt
>>> Kevin
>>> Michael Mann wrote:
>>>> extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC.
>>>> its particularly odd, since climate is usually Richard Black's beat
>>>> at BBC (and he does a great job). from what I can tell, this guy was
>>>> formerly a weather person at the Met Office.
>>>> We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it
>>>> might be appropriate for the Met Office to have a say about this, I
>>>> might ask Richard Black what's up here?
>>>>
>>>> mike
>>>>
>>>> On Oct 12, 2009, at 2:32 AM, Stephen H Schneider wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Hi all. Any of you want to explain decadal natural variability and
>>>>> signal to noise and sampling errors to this new "IPCC Lead Author"
>>>>> from the BBC? As we enter an El Nino year and as soon, as the
>>>>> sunspots get over their temporary--presumed--vacation worth a few
>>>>> tenths of a Watt per meter squared reduced forcing, there will
>>>>> likely be another dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000. I heard
>>>>> someone--Mike Schlesinger maybe??--was willing to bet alot of money
>>>>> on it happening in next 5 years?? Meanwhile the past 10 years of
>>>>> global mean temperature trend stasis still saw what, 9 of the
>>>>> warmest in reconstructed 1000 year record and Greenland and the sea
>>>>> ice of the North in big retreat?? Some of you observational folks
>>>>> probably do need to straighten this out as my student suggests
>>>>> below. Such "fun", Cheers, Steve
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Stephen H. Schneider
>>>>> Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental
>>>>> Studies,
>>>>> Professor, Department of Biology and
>>>>> Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
>>>>> Mailing address:
>>>>> Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205
>>>>> 473 Via Ortega
>>>>> Ph: 650 725 9978
>>>>> F: 650 725 4387
>>>>> Websites: climatechange.net
>>>>> patientfromhell.org
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ----- Forwarded Message -----
>>>>> From: "Narasimha D. Rao" <ndrao@stanford.edu
>>>>> <mailto:ndrao@stanford.edu>>
>>>>> To: "Stephen H Schneider" <shs@stanford.edu <mailto:shs@stanford.edu>>
>>>>> Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2009 10:25:53 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific
>>>>> Subject: BBC U-turn on climate
>>>>>
>>>>> Steve,
>>>>> You may be aware of this already. Paul Hudson, BBC�s reporter on
>>>>> climate change, on Friday wrote that there�s been no warming since
>>>>> 1998, and that pacific oscillations will force cooling for the next
>>>>> 20-30 years. It is not outrageously biased in presentation as are
>>>>> other skeptics� views.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm
>>>>> http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100013173/the-bbcs-amazing-u-turn-on-climate-change/
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> BBC has significant influence on public opinion outside the US.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Do you think this merits an op-ed response in the BBC from a scientist?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Narasimha
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -------------------------------
>>>>> PhD Candidate,
>>>>> Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER)
>>>>> Stanford University
>>>>> Tel: 415-812-7560
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Michael E. Mann
>>>> Professor
>>>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>>>>
>>>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>>>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>>>> The Pennsylvania State University email: mannatXYZxyz.edu
>>>> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
>>>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>>>>
>>>> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
>>>> <http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>
>>>> "Dire Predictions" book site:
>>>> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>> --
>>> ****************
>>> Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbertatXYZxyzr.edu
>>> <mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>
>>> Climate Analysis Section,
>>> www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>>> <http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html>
>>> NCAR
>>> P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318
>>> Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax)
>>> Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305
>>
>> <Wigley-RecentTemps.doc>
>
> --
> Michael E. Mann
> Professor
> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>
> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
> The Pennsylvania State University email: mannatXYZxyz.edu
> <mailto:mann@psu.edu>
> University Park, PA 16802-5013
>
> website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
> <http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm>
> "Dire Predictions" book site:
> http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html
>
>
>
>
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