Tuesday, March 27, 2012

2895.txt

cc: p.jones@uea.ac.uk, t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk
date: Tue Jun 10 14:53:21 2003
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: possible rewording of section of letter?
to: "Michael E. Mann" <mannatXYZxyzginia.edu>

thanks for that Mike - now the reference to "agree remarkably well with the proxy-based
reconstructions (Figure 1) " [later part of paragraph ] . Unfortunately , the Bauer et al
curve clearly does not - at least from AD 1100 to 1400!
Again some qualify is needed - perhaps "for the most part , agree well " ?
and later [middle of the 6th paragraph],
"relative hemispheric warmth during the 10th to 12th centuries" is ambiguous and we prefer
"relative hemispheric warmth during the 1oth,11th and 12th centuries"
At 08:53 AM 6/10/03 -0400, Michael E. Mann wrote:

Thanks Keith,
I agree w/ you entirely, and the revised wording seems better indeed.
It definitely has my blessing.
Thanks for the help,
mike
p.s. I'm available through tomorrow morning in case there are any other important
last-minute issues that arise
At 01:15 PM 6/10/2003 +0100, Keith Briffa wrote:

Mike
I know you up to your neck in marital bliss , and I am sorry to bother you , but on the
advice of Phil I thought it worth asking for your sanction of the following rewording of
the end of the penultimate paragraph of the letter.
This is, we believe, important because the original phrasing is a large hostage to
fortune, given that it seems to criticise (completely rubbish might be a better phrase)
all work based on proxies that do not actually resolve the "climate trends of the last
few decades" . As you know, many proxies used by you , us, and others, do not extend
over this period of rapid warming and some that do (eg our MXD data) do not display an
appropriate rapid response. What you have written could coneivably be twisted to imply
that we (you) are criticising our (your) own work. How about changing the section with
currently reads -
The conclusions , for example, of the ....of temperatures during the most recent decades
against reconstructions of past temperatures, taking into account the uncertainties in
those reconstructions. As it is only the past few decades during which Northern
Hemisphere temperatures have exceeded the bounds of natural variability, any analysis
(SB03) that considers simply '20th century' mean conditions , or does not properly
resolve the changes of the late 20th century (e.g. through the interpretation of
evidence from proxy indicators which do not resolve the climate trends of the past few
decades), cannot yield any insight into whether or not recent warming is anomalous in a
long-term and large-scale context.
to -
The conclusions , for example, of the ....of temperatures during the late 20th century
against reconstructions of past temperatures, taking into account the uncertainties in
those reconstructions. As it is only the past few decades during which Northern
Hemisphere temperatures have exceeded the bounds of natural variability, any analysis
(SB03) that considers simply '20th century' mean conditions, or interprets past
temperatures using the evidence from proxy indicators not capable of resolving
decadal-timescale trends, can provide only very limited insight at best into whether or
not recent warming is anomalous in a long-term and large-scale context.
--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

______________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mannatXYZxyzginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137
[2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa[4]/

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