Wednesday, March 28, 2012

2915.txt

date: Fri Jul 27 01:40:03 2001
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: visit to Tyndall Centre
to: Stephen H Schneider <shsatXYZxyznford.edu>

Steve,
Just a quick word before I leave for vacation - the Wembley Plaza Hotel sounds like a
misnomer to English ears - like mixing UK popular low culture with US-style glitz. Still,
I'm sure it will be fine.
The debate about probs. vs. scenarios continues with Mike Schlesinger weighing in today in
this week's Nature - seen that one? And then of course there were Sarah's papers in
Science last week. It would be quite interesting if you wanted to give us in Tyndall
Centre a 15 minute reprise on these arguments as to whether or not climate change can be
framed in terms of classical risk assessment - but the other topic of integrated vs.
non-integrated assessment would also be great. For style, keep it fairly light, but a few
overheads would certainly be appropriate. I'll also seek to send you our Tyndall research
strategy document before you leave so you can see the direction we're going in. John
Schellnhuber has been working with us on this.
I'm away now until later in August - all the best,
Mike
At 11:28 10/07/01 -0700, you wrote:

Thanks, Mike, all sounds fine. I'll stay at the Wembley Plaza Hotel, so
you can find me there for last second details. Hopefully I won't be in
some contact group that very Wed night. If possible I'll try to get there
for the 6pm festivities, but it is too soon to know how that will go. I'll
look forward to hearing how the center has been faring since the launch.
Give me some guidance before I leave the US on what overheads--if any--to
bring, or do you just prefer some evening entertainment??
Too bad I'll have to cancel the Simon affair, but my son just got into
college and his delivery date is Sept 19 so I need to do that--will miss
first two days of the core writing team too (I think they are mad enough
at me for my Nature Commentary--attached for convenience). By the way, did
you see the response from my friends Arnulf and Naki? (I'll attach that
too for convenience). Can you believe their penultimate paragraph? They
wnat to redefine risk away from its classical definition as probabilitiy
times consequence to just consequence. If that were reasonable then all
human pursuits should now be directed to averting an asteroid
collision--the worst imaginable consequence. Of course only a one in ten
million chance of that happening each year has a small influence on our
not getting too worked up about it! And to assert that social science is
fundamentally different than natural science is to deny that there are no
replicable experiments about 2100--man, how did they get locked into the
frequentist paradigm and miss the whole Bayesian set of ideas??? THis
could prove to be an embarassment to the IPCC. I'll see Naki at the
Energy Modeling FOrum this summer and see what were they thinking. Maybe
this topic would make a good dinner talk? Cheers,
Steve
On Tue, 10 Jul 2001, Mike Hulme wrote:
> Hi Steve,
>
> Yes, things are still in place at our end - our Tyndall group (60-70)
> assemble about 6pm on Wed. 26 September for an evening informal and
> social. If you can get away from the Wembley meeting by 3 or 4pm, then you
> can be in Norwich by 7pm - the informal pep talk is "Integrated assessment
> or unintegrated non-assessment: which do policy makers really
> prefer?". The train journey from London Liverpool Street station is about
> 1hr. 50mins. and you could get a taxi or tube easily from Wembley to
> Liverpool Street station. We'll accommodate overnight here and you can be
> back in London before 11am the following morning. We'll pick up the tab of
> course.
>
> Yes, the previous week Mike Grubb is convening a 5-day course, with a day
> on the 19th on integrated assessment which Tyndall have helped put together
> - Simon Shackley is the convenor for that day. His email is
> <simon.shackleyatXYZxyzst.ac.uk> but I can let him know if you want. Let me
> know. Shame you can't do it, but I know how these things go.
>
> All the best,
>
> Mike
>
> At 17:40 07/07/01 -0700, you wrote:
> >Hi Mike, just checking in to be sure all is on track. What schedule do you
> >envision? The IPCC thing is in Wembley, if that makes any difference.
> >Cheers, Steve
> >PS I was invited by someone at Imperial--my e-mails are a mess and I can't
> >locate it--to do an integrated assessment session before the IPCC
> >thing--around the 19th? If you know anything about this let me know, as I
> >have to back out since my son's school orientation for new students--his
> >first year in college--just got scheduled for the 19th. I'll fly to the UK
> >on the 21st.
> >
> >On Wed, 25 Apr 2001, Stephen H Schneider wrote:
> >
> > > Thanks Mike, I suspect an escape midweek is better than late in the
> > > process when things get really busy. So let me know about logistics and
> > > I'll try to join in the fun and celebration. Steve
> > >
> > > On Wed, 25 Apr 2001, Mike Hulme wrote:
> > >
> > > > Steve,
> > > >
> > > > Great to hear your positive response. I'll try to find out more
> > about the
> > > > Plenary venue and check some travel arrangements.
> > > >
> > > > The second of your titles perhaps may fit best - unfortunately, the IPCC
> > > > TAR - even synthesis report - is a rather non-integrated
> > assessment. John
> > > > Schellnhuber, Tim O'Riordan and others will be here for the Tyndall
> > > > Assembly and are pleased you're keen to join us.
> > > >
> > > > If Wed. evening is a critical event for IPCC, then we could alternatively
> > > > fit you in on Thursday evening (27th) - although we want to use you
> > as bait
> > > > to get people here for the kick-off on Wed. evening.
> > > >
> > > > All the best,
> > > >
> > > > Mike
> > > >
> > > > At 00:09 22/04/01 -0700, you wrote:
> > > > >Thanks Mike for the tempting invitation. As it comes in the middle
> > of what
> > > > >will undoubtedly be a miserable drag--as Pleanries always are--it
> > would be
> > > > >a welcome relief. Of course, if a critical contact group met that
> > evening
> > > > >Watson would very pissed at me. But, what you've built at UEA is a
> > > > >wonderful model that I'd love to help, so I'm inclined to accept your
> > > > >offer. I guess it means missing the afternoon on Wed and Morning on
> > Thurs.
> > > > >You want a what, 20 minute chat on "Is Integrated Assessment of Global
> > > > >Environmental Problems Feasible?" or something like that? Or "Integrated
> > > > >Assessment Versus Unintegrated Nonassessment: Which Do Policymakers
> > > > >Really Prefer?" or something more like that? I'll also have to check and
> > > > >see where the meeting is--Windsor some said, to see if train connections
> > > > >really can be feasible in the times you say. So let's keep in touch on
> > > > >this, Cheers, Steve
> > > > >
> > > > >On Fri, 20 Apr 2001, Mike Hulme wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Dear Steve,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I guess you will be over in London during the week of 24th Sept.
> > for the
> > > > > > TAR Synthesis Report plenary? If so, I wonder whether I can
> > tempt you to
> > > > > > visit Norwich for an overnight during the week?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The reason is that the Tyndall Centre is holding it's first
> > annual assembly
> > > > > > from the 26-28 Sept. at UEA, Norwich. We are now well into our
> > first year
> > > > > > of operation and the assembly will be the first chance for our
> > assembled
> > > > > > array of interdisciplinary researchers from across the UK to meet
> > > > > > together. I anticipate about 40-50 people, ranging from grad.
> > students to
> > > > > > senior scientists. On the Wednesday evening - 26th - we are
> > opening with
> > > > > > an informal evening event and would like to invite you to give us
> > a short
> > > > > > talk on the challenges facing integrated climate change
> > assessment as you
> > > > > > see them. An inspirational sort of thing, to get us going for
> > the next
> > > > > 2 days.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The logistics would mean you would have to leave London about
> > 4.30pm and
> > > > > > get a train up to Norwich, 110 minute journey. You could then
> > join us for
> > > > > > the evening, be royally entertained, and get the early train back
> > to London
> > > > > > on Thursday morning to be back in IPCC Plenary by 10.30am.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I don't like eating into your time in this way, but it would be
> > really
> > > > > > great for Tyndall Centre to have your input in this way.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks for considering it!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Best wishes,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Mike
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >------
> > > > >Stephen H. Schneider
> > > > >Dept. of Biological Sciences
> > > > >Stanford University
> > > > >Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A.
> > > > >
> > > > >Tel: (650)725-9978
> > > > >Fax: (650)725-4387
> > > > >shs@leland.stanford.edu
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > ------
> > > Stephen H. Schneider
> > > Dept. of Biological Sciences
> > > Stanford University
> > > Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A.
> > >
> > > Tel: (650)725-9978
> > > Fax: (650)725-4387
> > > shsatXYZxyzand.stanford.edu
> > >
> > >
> >
> >------
> >Stephen H. Schneider
> >Dept. of Biological Sciences
> >Stanford University
> >Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A.
> >
> >Tel: (650)725-9978
> >Fax: (650)725-4387
> >shs@leland.stanford.edu
>
>
------
Stephen H. Schneider
Dept. of Biological Sciences
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A.
Tel: (650)725-9978
Fax: (650)725-4387
shsatXYZxyzand.stanford.edu

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