from: Peter Thorne <Peter.ThorneatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: climateprediction.com [was casino21]
to: Tim Osborn <firstname.lastname@example.org>,Trevor Davies <t.d.daviesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, email@example.com,firstname.lastname@example.org,email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org,email@example.com,firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com,firstname.lastname@example.org, Adrian Matthews <a.j.matthewsatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
apologies for mass posting, I've tried to make sure that I've only posted
to those who may be interested. Of course feel free to pass this on to any
other interested parties. Have just returned from the 8th International
Metting on Statistical Climatology at which Myles Allen was outlining
the climateprediction.com project which I guess most of you have heard of
before, possibly as Casino21.
The rationale is to test model sensitivity to the actual parameterisations
and forcings used in GCM's and to try to assess what the models can and
cannot reasonably predict, with all the ensuing implications and research
opportunities. As I understand it the model will consist of HadAM3 coupled
to a coarse resolution ocean model. The idea is to copy the successful
SETI@home project by getting people to run simulations on their PC's at
home and collecting the output data for analysis by the scientific
community. An estimate was that there would be potentially 25 TeraBytes to
analyse, I'm not sure how realistic this is (BP have offered 6,000 PC's).
Of course whether you feel the output will be worth looking at is I suppose
a matter of personal taste, but there were certainly many people who were
very interested in using it in a number of applications so do not feel that
it is a complete dud.
A slightly fuller rationale can be found at:
in parts it is out of date.
In the long term the idea is to try to use universities as places to run
control simulations on windows boxes, with a few forced runs. There will be
opportunities for real-time data viewing of a number of parameters which
could be a very useful educational tool for a number of our taught courses.
Perhaps as a school ENV should push for this for when the system becomes
live in July, or at least put it on our own machines.
More importantly at the moment they are looking for help from people
running linux boxes (or DEC alphas - I think) and who have some idea as to
the actual models themselves (ie what theta represents so not very complex)
to run a pre-release version to fix any bugs. Fairly obviously they do not
want the thing to fall down in more than 5% of cases at time-step 2 upon
release. I would be quite willing to do this but have no linux box (do any
of you know of a reasonable spec linux box going spare?) and do not wish to
load the cru alphas, unless of course cru is happy for me to do this. If as
a university we help at this early stage it may well yield downstream
benefits in terms of future research directions. And if it turns out to be
a dud then we would have put very little in the way of resources into it.
I hope that this is of potential interest to you. If not then please accept
my apologies and delete this.
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
Ph. +44 (0)1603 593857
Fax + 44 (0)1603 507784