Wednesday, March 28, 2012

2953.txt

date: Mon Apr 7 10:37:55 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Book: Measuring Global Temperatures
to: "Ian Strangeways" <ian.strangewaysatXYZxyzworld.com>

Ian,
It is quite easy to find a limited number of stations that are not urban.
This was done in the first paper attached in 1994. The reason this works
is shown in the second paper in 1997.
It all works because there are limited number of spatial degrees of freedom.
I've found the latter is a very difficult concept for people to grasp.
There are less than 100 spatial degrees of freedom for the land areas at the
monthly average timescale - if you're calculating a global average.
There are obviously more spatial degrees of freedom at the daily timescale
and many more if you were dealing with precipitation. It all revolves
around the statistic we call r-bar.
As I've already said, what matters with urbanization, is any urban-related
warming trend. UHI doesn't matter.
Cheers
Phil

At 13:06 28/03/2008, you wrote:

Phil
Just received the annotated copy of Chapter 4. Many thanks for returning it
promptly.
I have not looked in detail yet but after a first reading I agree with most
of what you say and make the following quick comments:
I didn't express the point about David Parker's paper very well I agree.
Thanks for pointing out the poor wording. I didn't intend to change the
sense of it. I just expressed it carelessly.
I expected most comment to be about the rural v urban sites and will read
very carefully all the points you've made on this and reword accordingly.
If there are no rural sites in China you can't really use China to make your
point.
I'm surprised you say that you consider air over the oceans to be rural. I'd
call it marine, maritime or oceanic. Rural to me means countryside with
plants and solid ground. How about measurements made in the middle of large
lakes?
If you look just at the raw, unadjusted, air temperature data from isolated
small islands and from National Parks, that you know for sure have not
changed, what do you find? Have you done separate analyses of such sites
over the 20th century?. That would be interesting to see. I am always a bit
unhappy about lumping everything together; it hides the detail. Have you
done anything along such lines?
The reason I use the IH/CEH site is that it is one I've known for a long
time. I agree it is not in the middle of Wallingford - that was a separate
matter regarding the definition of urban. I also agree that its data are not
put out on the GTS, but it is Met Office inspected.
I agree also that it is changes that matter. I will make sure that this
point comes across more clearly. I am perfectly happy with this.
You may well be right that it might be impossible to get countries to agree
about anything new. Some way round this would need to be found. I will
address this matter in the last chapter.
When I've done the other chapters that you said you'd be interested to see.
I'll send you copies.
I greatly appreciate the time you've taken over this. I will make sure I do
not misrepresent the facts.
Ian
-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: 18 March 2008 09:58
To: Ian Strangeways
Subject: RE: Book: Measuring Global Temperatures
Ian,
Arrived today !
Phil
At 19:19 17/03/2008, you wrote:
>Phil
>
>Chapter 4 was posted today, Monday.
>
>Ian
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
>Sent: 13 March 2008 17:27
>To: Ian Strangeways
>Cc: Matt Lloyd
>Subject: Re: Book: Measuring Global Temperatures
>
>
> Ian,
> Of the 4 you've done so far, the best to look through would
> be number 4 on Measuring land surface air temperatures. I say
> this as I presume this will look into homogeneity aspects.
>
> Of the others 7-9 are the ones I'd like to see. I hope you can
> persuade Chris at MOHC to look at 5 and 6.
>
> So send 4. I can print it out here.
>
> Travelling a bit soon. What I'll likely do is take it and then post a
> hand-annotated copy back. Hope this OK. I should be able to
> get #4 back to the week of April 6-10. Need a postal address
> at some point.
>
> David Parker would be good for #3, if you've not already done that.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
>At 10:42 13/03/2008, Ian Strangeways wrote:
> >Dear Phil
> >
> >I have now written the first drafts of chapters
> >1 to 4 of my book 'Measuring Global Temperatures'
> >
> >1 The balance of energy
> >2 Thermometry
> >3 Screens, stands and shelters
> >4 Measuring land surface air temperatures
> >
> >Chapter 5 is nearly completed (As you know, I am
> >awaiting more details of the new small drifting buoys)
> >
> >5 Measuring sea surface temperatures
> >
> >You said you would be interested to take a look
> >at what I wrote and I am happy to send you
> >copies. However, I imagine you will not have
> >time to read everything, so if you would like to
> >suggest which of the above you would like to
> >see, I will send you copies. Should you want to look at them all, that is
>OK.
> >
> >It may be that you would rather wait until all
> >chapters are completed. Or you might just like
> >to see chapters which I have not written yet. The remaining chapters are:
> >
> >6 Ocean temperature profiles (Argo)
> >7 Global surface instrument networks (GCOS, etc)
> >8 From point measurements to global means
> >9 Temperature changes since 1950
> >10 Future measurements
> >
> >Just one thing - I'd appreciate a fairy quick
> >response to what you read so as not to have
> >these chapters hanging around unfinished for too
> >long. I want to get them out of the way as soon as possible.
> >
> >If necessary I could come to Norwich, but if it
> >can be done by email, so much the better.
> >
> >Look forward to hearing from you.
> >
> >Best wishes
> >
> >Ian
> >
>
>Prof. Phil Jones
>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>NR4 7TJ
>UK
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

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