Wednesday, March 28, 2012


cc: Martin Manning <>, Jonathan Overpeck <>, Keith Briffa <>, Eystein Jansen <>, <>, Bette Otto-Bleisner <>, Melinda Marquis <>
date: Fri, 24 Mar 2006 10:34:59 -0700
from: Jonathan Overpeck <>
subject: Re: SUPER URGENT IPCC help needed
to: Tim Osborn <>

Tim - thanks for the feedback. You make good
points, but we'll leave it to the TSU to decide
which way to go. Omitting the Ammann CSM run
doesn't change the fig implications, so they
might want to just remove one nitpicky thing that
some governments and experts could complain
about. Since it is SOD, I'd go with your option,

Thanks again, peck

>Dear all,
>we (Keith and I) agree that it isn't appropriate
>to cite only Jones and Mann (2004) as a
>reference for the NCAR CSM curves in figure 6.13.
>Another alternative to deleting the curves,
>however, would be to reference Mann, Rutherford,
>Wahl and Ammann (2005), which should already be
>in the reference list. This might be an
>appropriate reference because it includes Ammann
>as a co-author and provides a more information
>about the simulation than Jones and Mann (2004).
>However it still relies upon the submitted
>Ammann et al. paper as the main reference -- so
>maybe still not good enough? I've attached a
>PDF of Mann et al. (2005) for you to consider.
>From earlier discussions (and perhaps also in
>relation to chapters using new model runs of
>future climate), I thought that a new
>unpublished run with an existing published model
>under published forcing might be allowed (in the
>same way that updated 2005 or 2006 instrumental
>temperatures could be included, even if not
>published, providing they were compiled
>following the procedures described in an earlier
>paper). For instance, the EMIC runs we included
>as an extra panel probably fall in this
>category. Maybe the CSM run falls in this
>category too? Have other runs with this model
>been published? And the forcing used in this
>run was presented in Goosse et al. (2005; GRL
>32, L06710, again it includes Ammann as a
>co-author) as well as in Jones and Mann (2004).
>So, maybe CSM can be included under this
>I don't want to sound as if we are arguing
>strenuously to keep the CSM curves in the figure
>-- if the preferred decision is to drop it, then
>so be it. If so, then the modified figure looks
>At 02:11 23/03/2006, Martin Manning wrote:
>>Dear Jonathan
>>Thanks for trying to sort this out quickly for
>>us and for the information that the Ammann et
>>al paper is not available.
>>Susan and I have discussed your two options and
>>have to say that we can not agree to option 1
>>in the circumstances. Although the Jones and
>>Mann (2004) paper shows the NCAR simulation,
>>the key point is that it cites it as "C. Ammann
>>et al private communication 2003". So in effect
>>option 1 would be bringing in material that was
>>not peer reviewed and not even separately
>>documented. Anyone wanting to discredit your
>>chapter would highlight the fact that you
>>appear to be depending on work done in 2003
>>that had still not been peer-reviewed.
>>Option 2 is the only way to meet the standard
>>that we have set all along of basing the
>>assessment very firmly on peer reviewed
>>Kristen Averyt found that she could edit the
>>EPS files that you had sent us earlier for Fig
>>6.13 and take out the curves in question
>>labelled AJS2006. The result is attached.
>>If you can confirm that this edited figure
>>looks correct we are now proposing to drop that
>>into your chapter in place of the original one.
>>We would also remove the [S4] row in Table 6.2
>>referring to this study. We would also of
>>course use the edited version of the figure in
>>the TS (Fig TS-26 in current draft).
>>If you can see any other implications of this
>>approach to resolving the problem that we need
>>to be aware of please let me know. If the
>>author team wants to provide a redrawn figure
>>that might be an improvement on the attached
>>version we can still wait until Monday morning
>>for that.
>>Best regards
>>At 04:25 PM 3/22/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>Hi Keith and Tim - need FAST help. Figure
>>>6.13, and Table 6.2 cite Amman et al., for the
>>>CSM curve. Since this paper doesn't yet exist
>>>in "in press" form (I checked w/ Bette, who is
>>>a co-author), we have two choices. I think
>>>choice one below could be ok, but want to have
>>>confirmation from Keith or Tim, and it it's
>>>not ok, (NOTE) Tim and Keith need to get new
>>>Fig and Table to Melinda and Martin at the TSU
>>>by Monday.
>>>Option 1: we can cite Jones, P.D., and M.E.
>>>Mann, 2004: Climate over past millennia.
>>>Reviews of Geophysics, 42(2) - this paper
>>>(already in references - there is hope!) has
>>>the CSM simulation in its Fig 8, but of course
>>>it's not the idea original reference
>>>describing the simulation.
>>>Option 2: we (Tim) creates new fig 6.13, and
>>>Table 6.2 without any reference to this
>>>PLEASE NOTE - if Keith and Tim (or Martin)
>>>feels we must go w/ option 2, Tim has to send
>>>the new fig and table to TSU (Melinda Marguis
>>>and Martin) by Monday AM at the absolute
>>>Thanks for your quick help, Peck
>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>University of Arizona
>>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>Recommended Email address:
>>** Please note that problems may occur with my address
>>Dr Martin R Manning, Director, IPCC WG I Support Unit
>>NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory Phone: +1 303 497 4479
>>325 Broadway, DSRC R/AL8 Fax: +1 303 497 5628
>>Boulder, CO 80305, USA
>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:mann 2005
>pseudoproxy 1.pdf (PDF /�IC�) (00121DD9)
>Dr Timothy J Osborn
>Climatic Research Unit
>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
>phone: +44 1603 592089
>fax: +44 1603 507784

Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795

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