Wednesday, March 28, 2012


cc:, "tim Osborn" <>
date: Tue, 22 Sep 2009 00:57:21 -0400
subject: Re: Fw: Need to draw the 1000 yr record on a World Bank cover asap

Tim and Keith -
thanks again for your help re: the paleo climate records. You can find now an artistic (but
faithful) rendition of the data (together with the observed record and the projected IPCC
scenarios) on the cover of the WDR2010 that we just launched last week. See Link below.

Alexander Lotsch
"Development in a Changing Climate"
The World Bank, MC2-631
phone +1-202-458-7801
fax +1-202-522-0056
skype: alotsch
-----"Tim Osborn" <> wrote: -----

From: "Tim Osborn" <>
Date: 08/12/2009 05:52PM
cc:, "tim Osborn" <>
Subject: Re: Fw: Need to draw the 1000 yr record on a World Bank cover asap
Dear Alex,
I've made available all the data used in the IPCC AR4 paleo chapter (at
least the parts I was involved with) here:
There are smoothed and unsmoothed versions of all the series.
Is that the kind of thing you want?
I'm now going outside to see the Perseid meteors!
On Wed, August 12, 2009 6:57 pm, wrote:
> Alex
> I am forwading this message to Tim Osborn , my colleague in CRU who will
> be able to supply the data - he drew the Figures in the AR4 report and you
> might usefully discuss the data and figures directly with him. I am away
> from work for some time yet - good luck
> Keith
>> <html><body>
>> <p>Dear Keith - <br>
>> <br>
>> I understand from Michael Mann (see exchange below) that you may be able
>> to provide us the raw data of the 12 proxy temperature reconstructions
>> for
>> the past 1000 years that were used for the &quot;Dire Predictions&quot;
>> book. As you will gather from the emails below, we need to quickly
>> redesign the cover of the forthcoming World Development Report on
>> Development and Climate Change - the cover graphic we had chosen
>> appeared
>> on a different report 2 weeks ago ... We are now working on a composite
>> of
>> historical (1000yr), instrumental (CRU), and projected (IPCC AR4)
>> temperatures. We have nice set of spinning globes (showing ocean
>> chlorophyll and NDVI) that are moving up the temperature curve. However,
>> in order to do this it would be best if we could have the raw 1000yr
>> proxy
>> record to help the graphic designers to create a compelling an faithful
>> figure.<br>
>> <br>
>> Thanks in advance!<br>
>> <br>
>> -alex<br>
>> <br>
>> _________________________<br>
>> Alexander Lotsch<br>
>> &quot;Development in a Changing Climate&quot;<br>
>> The World Bank, MC2-631<br>
>> phone +1-202-458-7801<br>
>> fax +1-202-522-0056<br>
>> skype: alotsch<br>
>> <br>
>> <b><font face="Tahoma">From:</font></b><font face="Tahoma"> Michael Mann
>> > href="">> face="Tahoma">
</font><b><font face="Tahoma"><br>
>> Sent:</font></b><font face="Tahoma"> Tuesday, August 11, 2009 8:11
>> PM</font><b><font face="Tahoma"><br>
>> To:</font></b><font face="Tahoma"> Bierbaum, Rosina</font><b><font
>> face="Tahoma"><br>
>> Subject:</font></b><font face="Tahoma"> Re: Need to draw the 1000 yr
>> record on a World Bank cover asap</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Hi Rosina,</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Thanks for the heads up. I have to
>> confess I'm a bit distracted right now, we've got a paper coming out in
>> Nature tomorrow that deals with a coincidentally related theme (the
>> record
>> of Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 years). </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">things are well here. We take a
>> week
>> vacation up in the Adirondacks next week (I've pre-emptively already put
>> up the vacation message, which you can safely ignore), and trying to get
>> as much off my plate before then as possible.</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">I hope U. Mich is treating you
>> well.
>> That said, I hope Penn State crushes you guys this year ;)</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">some responses/thoughts
>> below,</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">mike</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">On Aug 11, 2009, at 7:01 PM,
>> Bierbaum, Rosina wrote:</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><br>
>> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">Hi Michael,<br>
>> Hope all's well with you. I am finishing up a not particularly
>> contemplative sabbatical at the World Bank, working on their World
>> Development report. We are 2 weeks away from printing and the cover we
>> were going to use just appeared on another book. Chaos and panic
>> ensued.</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">yikes<br>
>> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><br>
>> I have gotten some lovely globe (land and sea productivity) images from
>> NASA today and we want to portray the 1000 year temp record underneath
>> them and then show the range of estimates of temp going forward for the
>> coming 100 years. What do you suggest for the 1000 years? Redraw your
>> figures? If so, are the data available? We will use the IPCC estimates
>> for the next 100--would you suggest showing up to 6 degrees above
>> pre-industrial as the range?</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">I think it would be good to show
>> the
>> a representative 'envelope' of records over the past 1000 years, rather
>> than any 1 record, for the reasons discussed below, i.e. to avoid the
>> controversy associated with using any one single estimate. That's the
>> tack
>> that was taken in AR4 (i.e. in chapter 6 of WG1) and I think it was a
>> wise
>> one. This is also what I've done in my book (&quot;Dire Predictions:
>> Understanding Global Warming&quot;). So what I envision would be an
>> envelope, rather than a single curve, going back 1000 years, with the
>> instrumental global mean temperature curve shown for the past 150 years.
>> Re what to show for the projections, will this is often as much art as
>> science, but I think its reasonable to represent a range consistent with
>> the lower end AR4 2100 projections under B1 to the upper end 2100
>> projections under A1F1, which gives about 1.3 to 6.5C relative to late
>> 20th century (i.e. about 2 to 7C relative to pre-industrial), i.e. more
>> or
>> less what you describe.</font>
>> <ul>
>> <ul><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><br>
>> For the past 1000 year record, is there a way to show the smoothed
>> estimates across the various proxy reconstructions easily? Say as a kind
>> of blurred line with a central estimate? We are looking at the data in
>> Working Group 1, figure TS 20 p. 55 (</font><a
>> href=""><u><font
>> size="4" color="#0000FF" face="Times New
>> size="4" face="Times New Roman">) There are 12 reconstructions shown. We
>> want to draw a slightly impressionistic but realistic temp
>> record....</font></ul>
>> </ul>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">ah--I should have read this more
>> carefully before I answered above. we're thinking along the same lines.
>> I
>> have to confess that I took the easy way out for the graphic we produced
>> for &quot;Dire&quot; (page 47). We just passed off the figure in
>> question
>> to the DK folks, and told them we wanted them to create a shaded
>> envelope
>> that represents the range among the 12 reconstructions at any given
>> time,
>> shown along w/ the the individual curves. I don't think they actually
>> downloaded the raw data, but simply imported it into their graphics
>> software and did it by brute force. I'm sure you could modify this for
>> your purposes (might need to clear w/ DK first). Now, we didn't quite
>> do
>> what you describe, which is a reasonable alternative (i.e. rather than
>> showing all 12 curves along w/ the spread, just show the average of the
>> 12
>> and the spread). That would certainly require getting ahold of the raw
>> data however. My guess is that you either Keith Briffa or Jonathan
>> Overpeck could help out here (I'm pretty sure Keith was the point man on
>> this part of the chapter). </font>
>> <ul>
>> <ul><font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><br>
>> Unfortunately, I need to supply the artists with something in the next
>> few
>> days. Since you are the Man, I thought I'd ask your advice and hope you
>> don't mind! Thanks so much!</font></ul>
>> </ul>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">I'm hoping that one of the options
>> mentioned above will work. I bet Keith could generate what you need
>> pretty
>> easily, I bet he's already got the raw data behind the
>> graphic.</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman">let me know if I can be of any
>> further help. If you'd like me to contact Keith directly about this, I'd
>> be happy to...<br>
>> </font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"><br>
>> Best, Rosina<br>
>> 734-649-6629<br>
>> ________________________________________<br>
>> From: Bierbaum, Rosina<br>
>> Sent: Monday, August 10, 2009 10:47 PM<br>
>> To: David M. Anderson<br>
>> Cc: Thomas R. Karl; Wahl, Eugene R<br>
>> Subject: RE: Fw: If we wanted to put the 10,000 year record of Earth's
>> avg
>> temp on the cover of our World Bank Report....<br>
>> <br>
>> Dear David,<br>
>> Wow, that was really fast. I had expected that using the 10,000 year
>> record--during which I thought temperatures remained within a 1 degree
>> range--would show how present and future climate change were quite
>> anomalous. Attached is the graphic I first saw in this regard, shown by
>> Bob Corell who ran the Arctic assessment. I thought the 10,000 record
>> would be less controversial than simply showing the last 1000 years and
>> wandering into the hockey stick controversy.<br>
>> <br>
>> What is your professional judgment on the best long-term temp record to
>> show? I don't think we want to show the 160,000-850,000 record on the
>> cover. We could also revert to the CO2 record, but since CO2 is not the
>> same as CO2e and the y axis needs to climb much higher to show future
>> CO2,
>> and temps seems much more accessible to most people, I was trying to
>> revert to temp.<br>
>> <br>
>> Thanks so much for your help, advice and very prompt response! Best,
>> Rosina<br>
>> <br>
>> Rosina M. Bierbaum, Professor and Dean<br>
>> School of Natural Resources and Environment<br>
>> 2046 Dana Building<br>
>> University of Michigan<br>
>> Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1041<br>
>> Phone: (734) 764-2550<br>
>> Fax: (734) 763-8965<br>
>> <br>
>> <br>
>> -----Original Message-----<br>
>> From: David M. Anderson > href="">> color="#0000FF"
>> face="Times New
>> Roman">> face="Times New Roman"><br>
>> Sent: Monday, August 10, 2009 9:58 PM<br>
>> To: Bierbaum, Rosina<br>
>> Cc: Thomas R. Karl; Wahl, Eugene R<br>
>> Subject: Re: Fw: If we wanted to put the 10,000 year record of Earth's
>> avg
>> temp on the cover of our World Bank Report....<br>
>> <br>
>> Dear Rosina,<br>
>> Tom Karl asked me to direct you towards some temperature data for the
>> last
>> 10,000 years. I have attached a plot and an excel file.<br>
>> <br>
>> This is a tough science question and subject to debate, which is why you
>> don't see this plot often, and why you don't see this data on our
>> site.<br>
>> I composited Antarctic ice core temperature data (Petit, et al. 1999)
>> with
>> the longest and latest southern hemisphere multiproxy reonstruction from
>> Mann, et al, 2008, to produce temperature changes for the past 10000
>> years.<br>
>> <br>
>> The graph shows three things, none helpful for your purposes, I
>> believe.<br>
>> 1. Temperature at a single site in Antarctica has varied alot over the
>> past 10,000 years, even when smoothed.<br>
>> 2. There was a warm period about 6,000 years ago. This is well
>> known.<br>
>> Whether warmer than today is still a research topic.<br>
>> 3. For the past few centuries, the increase in co2 has outpaced the
>> increase in temperature. This is also a research issue, but related to
>> the
>> hypothesis that the climate is no longer in equilibrium.<br>
>> <br>
>> There are many different ways and data sets to address this question,
>> but
>> I thought it would be best to give you this quick look.<br>
>> Best,<br>
>> Dave<br>
>> <br>
>> --<br>
>> David M. Anderson<br>
>> NOAA Paleoclimatology Branch Chief and Director, World Data Center for
>> Paleoclimatology NOAA's National Climatic Data Center<br>
>> 325 Broadway, E/CC23, Boulder, CO, 80305-3328<br>
>> Tel: (303) 497-6237</font><br>
>> <font size="4" face="Times New Roman"> </font><br>
>> <font size="2">-- </font><br>
>> <font size="2">Michael E. Mann<br>
>> Professor<br>
>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)<br>
>> <br>
>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075<br>
>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814)
>> 865-3663<br>
>> The Pennsylvania State University email: </font><a
>> href=""><u><font size="2"
>> color="#0000FF"></font></u></a><font size="2"><br>
>> University Park, PA 16802-5013<br>
>> <br>
>> website: </font><a
>> href=""><u><font size="2"
>> color="#0000FF">[5]</font></u></a><br>
>> <font size="2">&quot;Dire Predictions&quot; book site: </font><br>
>> <a
>> href=""><u><font
>> size="2"
>> <font size="2"> </font><br>
>> <font size="2"> </font><br>
>> <font size="2"> </font><br>
>> <font size="2"> </font><br>
>> <font size="2"> </font><i>(See attached file:
>> pastedGraphic.pdf)</i><i>(See attached file: ATT00001.htm)</i><br>
>> </body></html>
Dr. Tim Osborn
RCUK Academic Fellow
Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

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