Saturday, March 31, 2012


date: Fri, 30 May 2008 15:56:07 -0700
from: Ben Santer <>
subject: Next version of paper and response to Reviewers
to: "Thorne, Peter" <>, Leopold Haimberger <>, Karl Taylor <>, Tom Wigley <>, John Lanzante <>,, Melissa Free <>, peter gleckler <>, "'Philip D. Jones'" <>, Thomas R Karl <>, Steve Klein <>, carl mears <>, Doug Nychka <>, Gavin Schmidt <>, Steven Sherwood <>, Frank Wentz <>

Dear folks,

Here is the next version of our IJoC paper, together with the Supporting
Online Material and the detailed response to the comments of Reviewers 1
and 2.

There is one small issue I'd like to discuss. As I mentioned in a
previous email, I have now applied the "new" d1* test suggested by
Francis [see equation (12) in the revised manuscript] to synthetic data.
Results are shown in Figure 5B. I've also applied the "new" d1* test to
observed and simulated T2 and T2LT data (see Table 3 in revised
manuscript). I have not yet applied the new d1* to the modelled and
observed surface-minus-T2LT difference series. The d1* results in Table
6 are the OLD d1* results - not the new d1* results.

In practice, because the first term under the square root sign in
equation (12) is small relative to the second term, the new d1* results
are very similar to the old d1* results (which only involved the
standard error of the observed trend in the denominator). So the "old"
d1* results currently shown in Table 6 will probably not change by much
when I complete the "new" d1* tests with the modelled and observed
surface-minus-T2LT difference series. I should have those calculations
completed on Monday morning, and will revise Table 6 then.

I'd very much like to resubmit our manuscript on Tuesday of next week,
so that I can enjoy my birthday untroubled by thoughts of sigma{SE},
further sensitivity tests, etc. Please let me know if you think Tuesday
is an unrealistic target for resubmission.

We owe Francis a big debt of gratitude. I think that his review comments
(and his help over the past few days) have led to substantial
improvements in our paper.

With best regards,

Benjamin D. Santer
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
Tel: (925) 422-2486
FAX: (925) 422-7675


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