Sunday, April 1, 2012

3094.txt

cc: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk, pmzhai@cma.gov.cn, Kevin Trenberth <trenbertatXYZxyz.ucar.edu>
date: Thu May 26 15:12:40 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Fig. 3.7.1
to: "David Easterling" <David.EasterlingatXYZxyza.gov>

Dave,
Thanks for the update on the maps. Can you calculate a CRU time series from
what you have? Exactly which dataset do you have? Is it CRU TS 2.0? If this is it
then OK. This is the infilled one, so variance may be a little low in early years.
Hopefully your calculations will agree with Aiguo. I don't have anyone here to do this
at the moment. There seem a lot of deadlines at the moment here, which is making
it hard for me to find quality time for Ch3. Luckily there is a holiday weekend coming
up and I hope to use that to get 3.5-3.7 looked over. 3.2 is now done and agreed
with David. I'll tweak anything when I get your spatial maps. I came in with good
intentions today, but have been answering emails and seeing students.
As for smoothing, we didn't agree. For temperature we are going with the HC
'approximate' 20-year binomial. I'll attach a figure David's produced to let you see that.
I reckon if you did a 13-year binomial you'll get something like it. Remember to send
David all the series for trend estimation when you have them.
I am assuming Bin Wang did 3.7.1. Can you clarify with Dave exactly what 3.7.1
is? Give him the method to calculate it. Also clarify the two Chen's.
I see that David has emailed his reading of the
English. I was about to wright something like this. It is definitely the difference
between
two period averages and not extremes years in the periods. The caption obviously needs
a lot of work - I'll have a go at that when I get to it.
If the 3 of us are having difficulties, what hope have we for the readers. If you can't
get
anything remotely like it I would suggest we drop it - but try David's English translation
first !
Cheers
Phil

At 14:11 26/05/2005, David Easterling wrote:

Phil,
We will have the maps redone next week and I have started reworking the text for 3.3
Do you have a CRU global pcp time series for 1901-2003 you can send or should
we calculate? I have the numbers for the figure Aiguo Dai sent.
Also, we never decided on a standard smoothing routine. My preference is for
a 13 or 9 point binomial with reflected ends, but we need to decide.
Last, it is still not clear who did figure 3.7.1, was it Bin Wang? The two Chen
papers are by different authors, the 2004 EA monsoon paper is by T-C Chen of
Iowa State U., and the 2002 paper and data set creator is Ming Chen at NOAA/CPC.
I have requested the PREC/L data set from CPC. But I am not even sure exactly what
3.7.1 is, the title says change in mean annual range between the two periods, which I
interpret to mean the difference between the highest and lowest years for the post 1976
period
minus the difference between the highest and lowest from the pre-1976 period giving a
measure
of change in year to year consistency of monsoons. Also, there is a reference in the
text that
Chen et al. (2004) compiled PREC/L, but that is not the case, it should be Chen et al.
(2002)
as creator, but with an update to 2003.
Dave
Phil Jones wrote:

Dave,
I still don't understand why Bin Wang is involved in this ! Have you contacted
Chen? Maybe it was Bin Wang. Have you looked into trying to reproduce it?
Panmao has sent me a revised 3.7.3 using HadSLP2. I'm going to contact
Rob Allan about this one as he's been involved in developing HadSLP2.
Will you be in a position to send revised Figures soon? Any date also
when you'll be working on the text of 3.3?
Cheers
Phil
At 19:44 25/05/2005, David Easterling wrote:

Phil,
I am trying to track down the source of Fig. 3.7.1 the epoch difference in
monsoon rainfall map. It has a reference of Chen et al. 2004, which is
the J. Climate paper on the east Asian monsoon, but this figure is not in the paper.
Someone must
of plotted it using their data, but not sure who. Do you know?
Dave
--
David R. Easterling, Ph.D.
Chief, Scientific Services Division
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801 USA
V: 828-271-4675
F: 828-271-4328
David.EasterlingatXYZxyza.gov

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--
David R. Easterling, Ph.D.
Chief, Scientific Services Division
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801 USA
V: 828-271-4675
F: 828-271-4328
David.EasterlingatXYZxyza.gov

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

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