from: Frank Oldfield <frank.oldfieldatXYZxyzes.unibe.ch>
subject: PAGES Synthesis
to: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, jto@U.Arizona.EDU, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, eaboyle@MIT.EDU, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, Brian.Huntley@durham.ac.uk, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, Louis.Francois@cict.fr, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com
I am sending this message (see attachment in Word and RTF, as well as
unformatted text below) to all the people we hope will be able to help with
PAGES Synthesis by attending the 'writing workshop', 21 - 26 January, 2000.
Please let me know as soon as possible whether or not you are able to come
- and if so, when you plan to arrive in and depart from Bern. On behalf of
the PAGES Scientific Steering Committee I urge you to attend and to help us
if at all possible.
With kind regards,
PAGES Synthesis - Writing week 21 - 26, Jan.2000
Synthesis looms�. the writing week approaches�.no more biological
displacement �..time for ACTION and that means - prepare to write!
Here are some outline ideas for our Synthesis efforts from now till the end
of the 'writing week' January 21 - 26, 2000.
By the end of that week we need to have:
1. at least the a nucleus of text, figures and references for every
chapter. The text may be in note form, as headings with outlines of content
under each, or as full first draft. The figures can be in any form at that
stage, but need to be cross-referenced with whatever text is produced. The
references need not be in final form (but the nearer the better).
2. A clear and realistic set of deadlines,a meeting schedule, agreed tasks
ascribed to each participant and procedures for circulating, revising and
In order to reach the goals outlined, we shall need the following in
advance of the meeting:
1. A compilation of key reference texts and figures (IPO to continue doing
this over the next 2 months; please send additional suggestions).
2. ~1-page of theme headings for each of Chapters 2 - 6 as currently
envisioned so that each author can see how his/her contribution links
to/overlaps with others. This should also allow us to identify gaps. These
outlines are needed not later than the end of November so that EXCOMM can
review them at AGU and as little time as possible is wasted at the meeting
informing each other of what is proposed. (Lead authors as listed - the
first named for each Chapter - to take responsibility for this).
The meeting will begin with short introductions by Will Steffen (who can
attend for the first day, Tom Pedersen and F.O.). Presentations will follow
on each chapter, These should focus on the following common questions:
1. What major statements of significance can we make with reasonable
certainty or high probability in our present state of knowledge and how can
they be sustained succinctly and illustrated attractively?
2. How may they best be expressed and illustrated in order to capture the
attention of policy makers, funding agencies, interested non-specialist
colleagues (eg. In other IGBP projects), educators and potentially
3. Which of these statements may be of special significance in human terms
and how can their importance best be conveyed?
4. Where are the areas of critical uncertainty, how well is current
research addressing them and how best may they be defined and addressed by
5. What are the most stimulating or challenging lines of
speculation/hypothesis testing to which the research leads?
6. What will the future research agenda look like and what will it required
in terms of tools, personnel and resources?
I hope that by taking this kind of approach, it will be possible to avoid
making the Synthesis into a review or a chore. Meeting this challenge well
is one of the the best guarantees of a healthy future for PAGES.
If we aim for a maximum of 250 pages, of which 35 are likely to be preface,
contents, references etc., that gives the equivalent of ca. 30 pages per
chapter. Using the good Dr Bradley's recent book as a rough guide and
making allowance for the extent to which the Synthesis book is likely to be
visually oriented, around 12 of these are likely to be figures and tables.
The remaining 18 pages of tex t equates with ca. 8k words. Please bring
your lap-tops: if necessary , with converters to Swiss socket outlets -
Niklaus will advise on this.
Please let us know as soon as possible what your travel plans are as far as
Bern. We'll sort out the rest as soon as we know where you will be and when.
PAGES Synthesis 1999/2000
THEME: "What is the significance of the paleo-record for understanding the
Two synthesis products, a book and a glossy brochure, will be produced.
The anticipated constituency for the book is the scientific global change
community and high-level educators, while the brochure will be written for
non-governmental and governmental organizations, public school educators,
and the environmentally concerned public.
The book will be structured as follows (authors marked * have agreed to
contribute; the others have or are being invited):
Chapter 1, Introduction: The Human Rationale for Past Global Change Research
Frank Oldfield*, lead author.
The "Results" section: 5 chapters, each structured around a central
question and each of ~15,000 words plus figures. Each will summarize the
Chapter 2: What has been the history of trace gases and aerosols?
Dominque Raynaud*, lead author, with Yugo Ono* and Jerome Chapellaz or M.
Chapter 3: What has been the history of atmospheric, oceanic and
Thomas Stocker*, Laurent Labeyrie* and Julia Cole*, lead authors
Chapter 4: What has been the history of the carbon and other biogeochemical
Ed Boyle*, lead author, with Roger Francois*, Danny Sigman and David Archer
Chapter 5: What have been the roles and responses of vegetation in the
Jonathan Overpeck* and Brian Huntley, lead authors
Chapter 6 (a transition chapter to the Discussion section) : How has the
Earth system changed during the last 1,000 years?
Ray Bradley* and Keith Briffa*, lead authors
Chapter 7+: Cross-cutting synthesis/discussion section, title(s) to be
determined. Topics to be considered include:
The potential for surprises
Implications for future change and sustainability of ecosystems and resources
Modelling the future - lessons from paleoclimatic reconstructions
PAGES Synthesis Schedule (as of Shonan, May, 1999)
May. Contact invitees.
ACTION: TFP TO PREPARE INVITATION LETTER. IPO TO SEND OUT
INVITATIONS WITH OUTLINE OF THE SYNTHESIS BOOK.
May. Contact PAGES task/activity leaders by email/fax requesting a short
list of key references and figures in response to the question, "What are
your most significant findings?" Deadline for contributions: June 15.
ACTION: IPO TO SEND OUT REQUESTS
June 1-15. Members of SSC to follow up personally by telephone if there has
been no response.
ACTION: IPO TO PREPARE AND DISTRIBUTE BY EMAIL THE LIST OF
CONTACTEES AND CONTACTORS.
July. Compendium of key references to be prepared by Keith Alverson and
sent to all lead and contributing authors.
September - November. Preliminary small group meetings as required by lead
authors of each "Results" chapter.
ACTION: LEAD AUTHORS TO DECIDE BY SEPTEMBER 1 ON NEED FOR
MEETING(S) AND TO ORGANIZE DATES, VENUES.
January or February. FIRST "RESULTS" WRITING SESSION. To be held in
Switzerland, either during the period Jan. 21-26 or in the week before
PAGES SSC Meeting in Pune, India.
March. Distribute widely the "Results" draft (Chapters 1-6, inclusive). All
"synthesis/discussion" section writers to receive a copy of the draft.
Solicit/collate comments from all recipients by May 31.
June. SECOND SESSION TO WRITE THE DISCUSSION/SYNTHESIS. Location to be
July. Start preparation of Brochure/Executive Summary
ACTION: IPO TO TAKE THE LEAD.
July. Completion of final draft of book, distribute for comment with
deadline of September 30.
October/November. Revision of final draft to produce finished product for
submission to IGBP/Publishers by Nov. 30.
January. Executive summary/brochure to be completed by Jan. 31.
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Synthstrat'2000-0ct3.doc"
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CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland
Phone: +41 31 312 3133; Fax: +41 31 312 3168