subject: [Fwd: RE: Launch of UKCP]
Despite Myles statement his has been the most negative voice today -
interviewed on Newsnight - and Kirsy Wark also referred to criticism from
LSE - Myles point seemed to be about going to too high a resolution (he
mentioned 5 km) and lack of peer review. Kirsty Wark also went on about
lack of peer review in an interview with Hilary Benn - but then her main
complaint with him seemed to be the government not going far enough, eg.,
with respect to building on flood plains. But Hilary Benn has been pretty
impressive all day.
Generally I think things have gone quite well today. Though the emphasis
has been on Met Office (Defra, UKCIP and UEA have all had fewer mentions).
And in fact in the presentations today the weather generator and UEA only
got mentioned once by Chris West. There were a lot of people at the launch
- 200? - and most of the questions from stakeholders were more on policy
issues than the projections. Managed to get one set of hard copies and a
couple of CDs.
This morning, I did a couple of radio interviews (by mobile) with Radio
Norwich and Radio Heart (was Radio Broadland). I turned down an offer to
be interviewed by ITN about sea level at Happisburgh! Suggested Stephen
Dye instead (who was at launch today) - somebody else from CEFAS ended up
doing it at Southwold - but not shown in the end on local or national
Brian Hoskins was at the launch - spotted him berating Bob Watson in a
corner! Nigel Arnell was also there - but very quiet.
So now its back to the mundane things like promotion training and trying
to get salary costings out of Janice! Hope things are going well in
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: RE: Launch of UKCP
From: "Myles Allen" <allenatXYZxyz.ox.ac.uk>
Date: Wed, June 17, 2009 10:40 pm
To: "Hoskins, Brian J" <b.hoskinsatXYZxyzerial.ac.uk>
"Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <francis.zwiersatXYZxyzgc.ca>
"claudia tebaldi" <claudia.tebaldiatXYZxyzil.com>
"Nigel Arnell" <n.w.arnellatXYZxyzding.ac.uk>
"Carter Tim" <tim.carteratXYZxyzaristo.fi>
"Wells N.C." <n.c.wellsatXYZxyzon.ac.uk>
"jaak monbaliu" <jaak.monbaliuatXYZxyz.kuleuven.be>
Thanks very much for this, and we all appreciate you are being put in an
impossible position. I hope you don't mind my getting this off my chest
to my fellow reviewers, and rest assured I won't be actively seeking to
say anything to anyone tomorrow, but I'm afraid I don't accept that
obtaining user buy-in is more important than implementing the
recommendations of the scientific review panel. I also don't accept that
the sensitivity studies they have done in response to our review (in
which, I understand, cases in which changes to inputs had a substantial
impact on results were quietly dropped), nor releasing the 11-member RCM
ensemble, represent an adequate substitute for presenting what a
conventional, IPCC-style, model-intercomparison exercise would have
found. Yes, an IPCC inter-model range cannot be interpreted as a PDF
(which I assume is the loss of functionality Bob is referring to), but
this does not prevent it being useful as one measure of uncertainty: the
US Climate Impacts Assessment that has just been released contains (as
far as I can tell on a cursory reading) no PDFs, only inter-model
ranges, and I'm sure many people will still find it useful.
Will DEFRA's response be made public? It is potentially rather
explosive, since the "buy in" remark implicitly acknowledges that, if
users were offered a simpler alternative that they can actually
understand, many, perhaps most, might prefer it.
From: Hoskins, Brian J [mailto:email@example.com]
Sent: 17 June 2009 14:59
To: Hoskins, Brian J; 'Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]'; 'claudia tebaldi';
Myles Allen; 'C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk'; 'Nigel Arnell';
'firstname.lastname@example.org'; 'email@example.com'; 'Carter Tim';
'Wells N.C.'; 'firstname.lastname@example.org'; 'jaak monbaliu'
Subject: RE: Launch of UKCP
UKCP will be launched tomorrow (see attachment). I asked DEFRA for a
document saying how they had responded to our review and have received
the attached from Bob Watson. I wanted you to have this information
before the launch so that if you are contacted by anyone you can reply
with a proper background.
The response by DEFRA and the Met Office has been very significant ,
although not going the whole way we may have liked in a perfect world.
There is no doubt that the product launched and the wrapper around it is
a heck of a lot better for your efforts!
Thanks again for you work on the review and the friendly way it was
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