Tuesday, April 3, 2012

3131.txt

date: Fri Jul 12 12:43:41 2002
from: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: your help
to: drdendroatXYZxyzo.columbia.edu

Envelope-to: f023atXYZxyza11.uea.ac.uk
X-ITHouse-Forward-Path: <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
From: Ricardo Villalba <ricardoatXYZxyz.cricyt.edu.ar>
To: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: your help
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 1999 12:50:05 -0300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.5
Dear Keith,
Attached to this e mail there are two files: norpat.doc (Word97), which
is a plot of the new Temperature reconstructions from Northern Patagonia,
and norpat.new (ASCII), which contains the raw reconstruction data as well
as smoothed versions with 50-, 25- and 10-year splines. In the plot that I
am sending you I chose the 25-year spline. This reconstructions was based
on 17 chronologies and is limited to the past 1000 years. Although we have
some records that cover the past 2000 years, we feel safer extending the
reconstruction just for the past 1000 years. We used PCREG program (which I
got from Ed) for developing the reconstructions. Tree-rings and a summer
(December to February) regional temperature record (including Bariloche,
Esquel and Collunco stations) were calibrated over the period 1903-1986 (84
years). The cumulative RSQ is 0.47 and the adjusted RSQ 0.42. This
represent an improvement over the past reconstructions, which have lower RSQ
and some outliers (2 for Alerce and 3 for Lenca) removed. We are trying to
improve the replication of some of the chronologies to develop the final
temperature reconstruction. However, I do not expect major changes in the
final output in relation to the data attached to this e-mail.
I will fax you a figure, which shows the temperature reconstruction in
the context of glacier variations along Patagonia. There is a remarkable
agreement between the cool 1500-1660 interval in the reconstruction and
glacier advances across Patagonia.
My best to Phil. Cheers, Ricardo

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa[2]/

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