Tuesday, April 3, 2012


cc: c.g.kilsbyatXYZxyz.ac.uk
date: Wed Sep 24 09:20:07 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: RE: UKCIP08 launch delay
to: "Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)" <kathryn.humphreyatXYZxyzRA.GSI.GOV.UK>

When I said no new diagrams, I had realised that we still need to do the spatial
maps for section 4 of the WG report. As these won't be final till after BADC gets
the final sets of change factors from MOHC (~Nov 17), the review of the WG report
could be set in motion fairly soon. As to coming to London for a meeting with
you and Geoff, this would depend on the date. I'm away most of the next two
weeks and have lectures to give during the week of Oct 13. Rob Wilby would be a possible
reviewer. He didn't seem to respond to the WG report in the earlier set of reviews.
I guess I'm assuming the reviews will be done for the WG during October
and/or November, as our text is near final but for section 4. I wouldn't want the
reviews done over Christmas and into January, and neither would the reviewers.
I'd forgotten about the EPSRC set of projects.
At 19:18 23/09/2008, Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA) wrote:

Thanks Phil; Ive spoken to Roger who is going to give me a list (much of which is
through the EPSRCs new research programme I think)..we have a couple of internal
projects that will get caught as well.

Well be scrapping a side event we had planned to do at the COP in Poznan and Ill need to
check what MOHC want to do about the RMS event as UKCIP08 was going to be a big part of

Also have noted your views on the peer review. I know this wont be popular with you or
MOHC for understandable reasons but will be helpful for the reputation of the project
overall and may save work for after launch if we have additional peer review to back us
up in case of challenges...though I know it will mean more work before launch. Im going
to meet with Geoff and co to discuss how to go about this. Do you want to be involved
in that meeting?

The project team all want to keep ukcip08 but directors in defra seem to think Ministers
will want it to be called ukcip09, so thatll be an interesting one to mediate!

Kind Regards,


From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: 23 September 2008 16:43
To: Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA); Ag Stevens; Anna Steynor; Bryan Lawrence; Butt, Adrian
(CEOSA); Chris Kilsby; Colin Harpham; David Sexton; Geoff Jenkins; Humphrey, Kathryn
(CEOSA); Jason Lowe; Kevin Marsh; Mark Elkington; Paul Bowyer; Phil James; Richard
Westaway; Roger Street; Sarah Callaghan
Subject: Re: UKCIP08 launch delay

There are a few contracts from organizations like the EA, UKWIR (and probably
others - UKCIP should have a complete list) who have put in place consultants
(some of which include some of us) to explain to their organizations what UKCIP08
is all about. They all have timetables and schedules based on the Nov 20 launch.

Checking my diary - I'm away Feb 2-5 in Geneva. Also I see I agreed to give a
talk about the UKCIP08 WG to the Royal Meteorological Society on Feb 18 at a
session Matt Collins is organizing. David, Roger and James down to talk at that
as well.
UKCIP08 sounds a lot better than UKCIP09!
At 15:43 23/09/2008, Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA) wrote:
Dear all,
MOHC have found a problem through their sensitivity testing with the calculation of the
discrepancy term in that it is throwing out odd results for winter mean temperature in
Scotland, proportion of dry days in Scotland and specific humidity. They have suggested
to us that the best option for dealing with this is to try out another method of
calculating the discrepancy which they believe will work better, and if it does, this
will involve re-doing all of the PDFs given that the same discrepancy calculation is
used across the board. Defra have agreed that this seems to be the most sensible
approach, which will inevitably lead to a delay in the launch.
Next steps therefore involve:
- Me and MOHC coming up with a line to give out on the reason for the delay that we
can all give out to people. Geoff is going to help me write this. This line will need
to go the Ministers, then the steering group, then out more widely, so for now please
dont pass on that the launch is delayed to anyone, before we have a standard line to
give out. If you have to, just pretend its still 20^th November for now! We should
have a line by tomorrow and let Ministers know a day or so afterwards so should be able
to let the SG know this week.
- I need an updated project plan from all of you combined to start to think about a
new launch date. I have suggested February to colleagues here to test the water and
there havent been huge cries of woe, but I need to know what you think is sensible first
and we also want to wait to see the first results of MOHCs re-analysis before agreeing a
new launch date. The sooner I can get a revised project plan the better.
- We need to decide if we want to call the project UKCIP09. Thoughts?
- Colleagues here are keen to now incorporate a peer review as we are not tied to
the November launch deadline. Geoff and I have discussed ways of doing this before,
which basically involve sending the methodology out to a few key experts and asking for
comments within a 4 week period or so.
- I need to check who is waiting for the data to inform research or policy so that
we can deal with their needs. If you know of any projects that are waiting for the data
please let me know.
Thats a bit of a brain dump, but please ring me to discuss if you have any further
queries especially about what work you should now be doing given that the PDFs are
likely to change. Ill forward another email shortly with MOHCs suggested timing for
re-doing the PDFs to help you plan your own timings.
Kind Regards,
Kathryn Humphrey
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Team, Defra
Zone 3F Ergon House, Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 3JR
tel 0207 238 3362 fax 0207 238 3341
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)

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Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk

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