Sunday, April 8, 2012


date: Thu May 26 15:35:35 2005
from: Phil Jones <>
subject: Re: revising section on tropospheric temps for IPCC Chapter 9
to: Kevin Trenberth <>

See if Bill can split the differences between day and night launches. If he has data
splits the 00 from 12Z, it's not too difficult to separate the two as the tropics mostly
near 12 hr days and nights. There are probably only a few sites that do both. Might be
that only Singapore, Darwin, Tahiti and a Caribbean one have both. Maybe more in
Australian region.
At 15:16 26/05/2005, you wrote:

Hi all
I am happy with 3.4.1 and it accommodates the latest developments, almost. I am
attaching the text.
However, yesterday we got a new paper from Susan Solomon and David Thmopson (Thompson
and Soilomon 2005) J Clim "Recent stratospheric climate trends: global structure and
tropospheric linkages"
I read it last night and I think a lot of it is wrong. It is based on radiosondes and
NCEP reanalyses. Yesterday I played golf with Bill Randel who tells me he had done what
I have been advocating for some time now: taking the MSU record and differencing it with
sonde records at those locations. He says it is very revealing and shows spurious
unphysical features in ALL tropical sondings. He has completed the work and is writing
it up. But I have not seen any of the results. Please don't pass this on. Fu is also
working on the sonde MSU comparison.
Phil Jones wrote:

Attached for your perusal only is the Carl/Wentz pdf of the latest RSS work. Roy
admitted to a mistake in the UAH 2LT work at the Chicago CCSP meeting May 16-17.
Relates to a sign on the correction for diurnal cycle changes. John Christy has told me
that he will send me their revised version. His email of May 20 didn't make much sense
he's clearly wriggling, saying the mistake isn't that important. We will likely know
in a few weeks, so this issue isn't likely to be resolved in time for the FOD.
With this problem and the earlier changes, UAH are losing credibility. I've not yet
at our section in 3.4.1 but for the moment we will be going with the attachment and
with recent Fu papers.
Upshot of all this is that the likely outlier now is the sondes. John Lanzante
and the HC
(probably) are working on looking at tropical sondes and separating them into day and
launches if at all possible.
Ben Santer is going to keep me informed of how CCSP progresses. David should hear
as well at some stage during June. They are on a tight timeframe now. There is an 8
open review period for CCSP, but not till after Aug 12. This open review requires open
to all pdfs in press (no passwords or any control), so there may be issues wrt Science
submissions (the attached and a paper by Ben et al.).
David and/or Kevin may elaborate, but it seems watch this space is the only advice
can give. I could send our latest draft, but I'm not sure if I have all the figures
for the
relevant section.
At 08:03 26/05/2005, Neville Nicholls wrote:

Hi David.
I am just starting the process of revising what Chapter 9 will be saying about free
atmosphere temperature. My intention is to start with what Chapter 3 will be saying in
the FOD. I wouldnt want to stray too far from what you are going to say. Could you let
me know if you think there will be substantial changes from your ZOD, and if so, let me
know the broad direction of such changes? It would be great to have access to your early
re-drafts even before I start revising Chapter 9, so we can ensure compatability.
I am also interested in some recent work by RSS (I think) apparently finding more
problems with the UAH data. I dont have details of this, so I may be completely wrong -
are you aware of such work?
Neville Nicholls
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
9th Floor, 700 Collins Street
Docklands,Melbourne, AUSTRALIA
PO Box 1289K, Melbourne, AUSTRALIA 3001
Phone: +61 (0)3 9669 4407
Fax: +61 (0)3 9669 4660

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email

Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail:
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]
P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318
Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax)
Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email

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