Sunday, April 8, 2012

3190.txt

date: Sat, 3 Nov 2007 14:39:34 -0400
from: Richard Somerville <rsomervilleatXYZxyzd.edu>
subject: Request
to: jhc@dmi.dk, V.Ramaswamy@noaa.gov, Herve.LeTreut@lmd.jussieu.fr, Piers Forster <piersatXYZxyz.leeds.ac.uk>, peter.lemke@awi.de, Nathan Bindoff <n.bindoff@utas.edu.au>, jto@u.arizona.edu, Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, richard.wood@metoffice.gov.uk, meehl@ncar.ucar.edu, stocker@climate.unibe.ch, Bruce Hewitson <hewitsonatXYZxyz.uct.ac.za>, Dave Randall <randallatXYZxyzos.colostate.edu>

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Dear Colleagues,

I am one of a group that has drafted a
Declaration on Climate Change to be released at
the UN climate change negotiations in Bali,
Indonesia in early December 2007. We have plans
for a major press conference in Bali to announce
the declaration.

Over the next few weeks, we are seeking
signatures for the declaration from up to perhaps
100 climate scientists from around the world.
Our goal is quality, not quantity.

The declaration is self-explanatory. The text is
pasted below. Without going into details of the
Bali negotiations process, our focus is to create
momentum around an appropriately low greenhouse
gas concentration stabilization target. In the
absence of framing the issue as we propose, some
governments are virtually certain to advocate
much higher targets for equivalent carbon dioxide
stabilization values, with correspondingly
greater climate risks.

Please consider signing this declaration. People
will sign as individuals, not on behalf of their
organizations. Please do not delay. We have
very little time before Bali. The declaration
text is posted and is available for signing now
at http://www.climate.unsw.edu.au/bali/

On the web site, you can see the names of those
who have already signed. The list of signers is
now chronological. We will alphabetize it before
we release it. The names of several members of
the drafting group appear early in the
chronological list (England, Pitman, Rahmstorf,
Somerville).

Signing on the web site is password-protected
(the password is "climate"). We have done this
to ensure that the list of signatures is
manageable and focused. We seek only
well-qualified climate scientists and wish to
avoid large numbers of other people signing.
Therefore, please send any correspondence to us.
We also want to avoid engaging the media until
closer to the time of the meeting.

Please send us suggestions of additional people
whom you would like to see asked to sign this
declaration. So that we can keep control of this
process, please don't forward this message to
email lists, etc. Instead, please suggest names
to us at these email addresses: Matthew England
<M.EnglandatXYZxyzw.edu.au>, Stefan Rahmstorf
<rahmstorfatXYZxyzan-klima.de>, Andy Pitman
<A.PitmanatXYZxyzw.edu.au>, Richard Somerville
<rsomerville@ucsd.edu>.

Many thanks, and best regards,

Richard Somerville

Prof. Richard C. J. Somerville
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California, San Diego, USA


Here is the text of the declaration:

The 2007 IPCC report, compiled by several hundred
climate scientists, has unequivocally concluded
that our climate is warming rapidly, and that we
are now at least 90% certain that this is mostly
due to human activities. The amount of carbon
dioxide in our atmosphere now far exceeds the
natural range of the past 650,000 years, and it
is rising very quickly due to human activity. If
this trend is not halted soon, many millions of
people will be at risk from extreme events such
as heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our
coasts and cities will be threatened by rising
sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and
animal species will be in serious danger of
extinction.

The next round of focused negotiations for a new
global climate treaty (within the 1992 UNFCCC
process) needs to begin in December 2007 and be
completed by 2009. The prime goal of this new
regime must be to limit global warming to no more
than 2 �C above the pre-industrial temperature, a
limit that has already been formally adopted by
the European Union and a number of other
countries.

Based on current scientific understanding, this
requires that global greenhouse gas emissions
need to be reduced by at least 50% below their
1990 levels by the year 2050. In the long run,
greenhouse gas concentrations need to be
stabilised at a level well below 450 ppm (parts
per million; measured in CO2-equivalent
concentration). In order to stay below 2 �C,
global emissions must peak and decline in the
next 10 to 15 years, so there is no time to lose.

As scientists, we urge the negotiators to reach
an agreement that takes these targets as a
minimum requirement for a fair and effective
global climate agreement.


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