Monday, April 9, 2012

3224.txt

date: Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:39:05 -0600
from: Eugene Wahl <Eugene.R.WahlatXYZxyza.gov>
subject: Request Re: simple remake of IPCC Figure
to: t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk

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Hi Tim:

I'm working with David Anderson, my supervisor here at NOAA-Paleo, and
others higher up in NOAA on paleoclimate information to go into the US
Government's official overview document on climate change research. It
is called the "Climate Change Science Plan Unified Synthesis Product",
and is like a kind-of US version of the IPCC SPM--Working Group 1. The
goal is to have this ready for the new government administration as
early next year as possible.

We are trying to decide concerning a figure to summarize the
high-resolution NH paleo-climate record for the past 1000 years -- the
last version of the document had MBH 99 superposed with the CO2 recored
for the same time period. One thought that came down to Dave and myself
from others was to use the new Mann et al, 2008, Figure 3 over the past
millennium or some part of it. Dave and I think the IPCC WG1 Ch. 6
Figure 6:10c is a better representation of the last millennium from a
reconstruction standpoint, especially representing the uncertainties
involved. CO2 would just be left out. [We also considered IPCC WG1 Ch.
6 Figure 14d as even better, as it shows the EMICs mostly follow the
middle range of the reconstructions' overlap, except that those that
don't have anthropogenic forcing deviate more and more cooler after the
mid-20th century. This coupling of the forcings-driven EMICs with the
reconstruction record we find much more powerful than a superposition of
one or more reconstructions and the CO2 curve. However, this suggestion
will not go for the synthesis product, as it is considered too abstract
for that situation.] Indeed, even Figure 6:10c as it is may be too
complex for the target audience we want to reach with the synthesis product.

In light of the foregoing, the question Dave and I would like to ask you
is this: would it be feasible to ask you to recreate Figure 6:10c with
just three lines? These three lines would be a heavy mid line of the
temperature anomalies where the highest percentage of overlap occurs for
each year, and the 10% and 90% overlap lines (all overlap percentages
defined exactly as in the original IPCC graphics). It is our
understanding that you created Figure 6:10c, which is where this request
comes from. Alternatively, could you provide us with these three time
series, or direct us how to extract them from the the IPCC c. 6 archives
we keep here? We understand that you are quite busy and we want to
minimize any impact on you in this request.

Please let us know what you think.

Here is hoping you are well, and that the weather there not yet to
coolish. I get a weekly commentary on nature and spirituality written
from near UEA ("Word from Wormingford" it is called), and often think of
you-all there as I read it. Please also say hello to Phil and Keith
when you see them.

--
Peace, Gene

Dr. Eugene R. Wahl

Physical Scientist
NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/Paleoclimate Branch

325 Broadway Street
Boulder, CO 80305

PHONE: 303-497-6297
FAX: 303-497-6513
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html

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