Monday, April 9, 2012

3240.txt

cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 16:41:23 +0000
from: Tim Osborn <t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Moberg et al.
to: "Michael E. Mann" <mannatXYZxyzginia.edu>

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Hi Mike,

as Phil says, Keith and I have a busy week hence replies will be brief and
slow.

In confidence, I can tell you that I reviewed a very similar paper by the
same authors that was submitted to Science last year, and recommended
rejection just a few months prior to their submission to Nature. I'm
telling you this because you might find my review interesting, in that it
makes some of the same points that you also draw out (note that this review
was of a slightly different version of the paper, so please don't assume
that all these comments still apply to the published Moberg et al., though
I think the main one still does). Anyway, my review (in confidence) is
attached. I found it rather annoying that they didn't appear to address my
main concern, just submitted a slightly modified version to another journal!

Since I agree with the main point that you make (which matches the concerns
expressed in my review) I'm happy to be a co-author on the correspondence
to Nature. I'll try to provide any comments as soon as I can, but am
examining a PhD on Friday in Reading (and am still reading the thesis!),
and then going to Michigan and Hawaii later next week - hence real
busy. Anyway, will reply as soon as possible.

Cheers

Tim

At 22:44 12/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:
>sorry. text revised yet again. no more changes until I receive comments
>from everyone.
>
>thanks...
>
>mike
>
>At 12:03 PM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote:
>
>> Mike,
>> Keith and Tim are here next week, but very busy with a proposal to
>> the EU.
>> So you may have to hassle them a bit, or hang on for a week or two.
>> Nature dragged in the IPCC angle which annoyed me. I tried to explain to
>> him how IPCC works. IPCC won't be discussing this in Beijing in May -
>> except
>> as part of Chapter 6. Hans von Storch will likely regret some of the
>> words he's said.
>> FYI, just as NCAR have put up a web site to give the whole story re
>> Chris Landseas's
>> 'resignation' from a CA in the atmos. obs. chapter (to help Kevin
>> Trenberth out), KNMI
>> are doing the same re Rob van Dorland and that Dutch magazine. The
>> chief scientist
>> at KNMI has got involved as Rob didn't say the things attributed to
>> him. I'll find
>> out more on this in Pune as a guy from KNMI will be there.
>>
>> Several other CAs on our chapter pulled out, or just didn't do
>> anything. Their stories
>> never got run.
>>
>> Dick's report was good and my bit in Nature cam across well.
>>
>> Say hi to all there and wish Steve well.
>>
>> Cheers
>> Phil
>>
>>
>>At 16:19 11/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:
>>>Phil--thanks, that's great. Really happy to hear that everyone is on
>>>board with this.
>>>
>>>I'm at a symposium honoring Steve Schneider out at stanford right now.
>>>Lots of folks here--as I talk this over w/ them, and see Dick Kerr's
>>>coverage of this, etc. I realize its not so bad--I was afraid this would
>>>be spun as bolstering the contrarians, but it hasn't. In large part due
>>>to quotes from you and others pointing out that the study actually
>>>reinforces the key conclusions, etc., and the fact Dick Kerr showed
>>>Keith and Tim's plot showing the scattering of multiple reconstructions,
>>>etc. which takes the focus off "Mann" a bit...
>>>
>>>Nonetheless, I *am* convinced their methodology is suspect, as the
>>>analysis I sent shows. So I will really appreciate input from Keith,
>>>Tim, and you to make sure the language and wording are appropriate and fair...
>>>
>>>I will revise as I get input from various people, with an aim to having
>>>this submission-ready in about 10 days (so you can have one final look
>>>after you return, and before you have to head out again).
>>>
>>>looking forward to getting people's comments, feedback, etc.
>>>
>>>thanks again,
>>>
>>>mike
>>>
>>>At 08:05 AM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote:
>>>
>>>> Mike et al,
>>>> I've talked to Keith and Tim here and it seems best if we all come
>>>> in with you on
>>>> this response. What you have done is basically fine. We can discuss
>>>> specific wording
>>>> later.
>>>> My problem is that I'm off tomorrow to Pune till Feb 20 and email
>>>> may be
>>>> sporadic or non-existent. So can you discuss revised drafts with
>>>> Keith and Tim,
>>>> but keep me on - lower down as I'm away. I'm here on Feb 21 then off
>>>> to Chicago
>>>> to review the vertical temperature report for the NRC/NAS Feb 22-25.
>>>> Keep me on the emails in case email works well in Pune.
>>>>
>>>> Cheers
>>>> Phil
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>At 23:35 10/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:
>>>>>Dear Caspar, Gene, Scott, Phil,
>>>>>
>>>>>I am attaching a response I've drafted to the Moberg et al paper
>>>>>(attached for those of you who haven't seen it). The message is
>>>>>pretty clear and simple--their method overemphasizes the low-frequency
>>>>>variability. To demonstrate this, I've made use of stuff from Mann and
>>>>>Jones, and from the Mann/Rutherford/Wahl/Ammann J. Climate letter on
>>>>>Pseudoproxies. So I would welcome any of you to be co-authors on
>>>>>this--just let me now if you're interested. I've been in touch w/
>>>>>Keith (he and Tim are potentially working on their own independent
>>>>>response--waiting to hear further).
>>>>>
>>>>>This is a very rough draft, so comments much appreciated.
>>>>>
>>>>>Looking forward to hearing back,
>>>>>
>>>>>Mike
>>>>>
>>>>>______________________________________________________________
>>>>> Professor Michael E. Mann
>>>>> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
>>>>> University of Virginia
>>>>> Charlottesville, VA 22903
>>>>>_______________________________________________________________________
>>>>>e-mail: mannatXYZxyzginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137
>>>>> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
>>>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>>University of East Anglia
>>>>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>>>NR4 7TJ
>>>>UK
>>>>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>
>>>
>>>______________________________________________________________
>>> Professor Michael E. Mann
>>> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
>>> University of Virginia
>>> Charlottesville, VA 22903
>>>_______________________________________________________________________
>>>e-mail: mannatXYZxyzginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137
>>> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
>>
>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>NR4 7TJ
>>UK
>>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>
>______________________________________________________________
> Professor Michael E. Mann
> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
> University of Virginia
> Charlottesville, VA 22903
>_______________________________________________________________________
>e-mail: mannatXYZxyzginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137
> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml

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Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Review of Moberg 2004 science1.doc"
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Dr Timothy J Osborn
Climatic Research Unit
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

e-mail: t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk
phone: +44 1603 592089
fax: +44 1603 507784
web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
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