from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: FW: FW: FYI --- better read this sitting down
to: "Tett, Simon" <simon.tettatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
Read Inhofe's speech a few days after it came out. Hans' comments
were unfortunate if true. Hans is still of the opinion that the late-20th
century is the warmest period of the last millennium. The basic message
should still be this.
As for the Arctic, the following bit of text is currently in the IPCC
report - submitted last week to WGI.
Snow cover has decreased in many NH regions, particularly in the spring season and this is
consistent with greater increases in spring than autumn temperatures in mid-latitude
regions. The reduction in frost days is principally due to an earlier last day of frost in
spring rather than a later start to the frost season in autumn. Sea-ice extents have
decreased in the Arctic, particularly in the spring and summer seasons, and patterns of the
changes are consistent with regions showing a temperature increase. Overall the Arctic
(north of 65�N) average annual temperature has increased since the 1960s and is now warmer
(at the decade timescale) than conditions experienced during the 1920-45 period. The
recent warm period in the Arctic is, however, not yet as long as that in the early-to-mid
20th century. Patterns of Arctic warmth in the two periods (1920-45 and since 1990) are
also quite different, as they are in almost all regions of the world with adequate data for
the earlier period. Patterns of recent warming in the Arctic are more consistent with
changes in the NAM than those earlier in the 20th century.
It is in an concluding section and I think we will need to add a figure into the main
part of the text. So Arctic warmth and its 'impression in a time series plot'
depends how much you smooth it. If you decadally smooth then the last 15
years are warmest.
There wasn't a time series for the Arctic in the TAR. We need one - we have an
SST series for the N. Atlantic north of 35N, which shows recent period way warmer
than earlier in the 20th century.
Maybe I'll see you next week at Exeter - Jan 26 or better 27th.
At 06:31 16/01/2005, you wrote:
picked the wrong address! Sorry as you won't get this for
another week (as I write in on a plane to the US)
Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications.
Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit)
Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB
Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615
Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886
E-mail: simon.tettatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org
From: Jones, Philip [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org]
Sent: 07 January 2005 12:44
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk