Thursday, April 12, 2012

3314.txt

cc: schlesinatXYZxyzos.uiuc.edu
date: Wed, 28 Feb 2007 13:15:40 -0600
from: Michael Schlesinger <schlesinatXYZxyzos.uiuc.edu>
subject: Re: Fred Singer's Hypothesis
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

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Phil:

Attached are 2 papers by Gerard Bond that
describe a 1470-year oscillation in the Holocene.

What are your thoughts on these papers?

Michael

>Michael,
> Not that I've ever seen. You have to believe the various
> series for the last 1000 years, and then they aren't long enough.
> I've just been looking at isotope series from some Greenland cores
> for the last 10K years and there was no evidence to my eyes.
> Not done any spectral analysis though !
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
>At 16:11 26/02/2007, you wrote:
>>Phil:
>>
>>Is there any evidence for a 1500-year cycle in the Holocene?
>>
>>Michael
>>
>>>Mike,
>>> The YD is a very distinct event. It is now almost exactly dated -
>>> see this paper.
>>>
>>> �Rasmussen et al. (2006) A new Greenland ice
>>>chronology for the last glacial termination,
>>>JGR 111, D06102, doi:10.1029/JD2005006079.
>>>
>>> �Based on cross-dated Greenland ice cores,
>>>the onset now dated to 12896 b2K � 140 years
>>>�End dated to 11703 b2K � 100 years
>>>�Duration of 1193 � 40 years
>>>
>>> b2k is AD 2000
>>>
>>> The 8.2K event is a little less clear, but still has a duration that can be
>>> estimated.
>>>
>>> These aren't the DO events, but they are similar. They are both very
>>> abrupt and occurring in the space of a few years. The resolution
>>> in the ice cores back before 21K is less good, that you can't see the
>>> events so clearly, but the belief is that
>>>they are abrupt events not cycles.
>>>
>>> Also, if he says the CRU data cool after 1998, tell him to work out
>>> the trend for the period 1998 to 2005 or 2006. The trend is still upwards
>>> despite starting with the warmest year!
>>>
>>> See you in South Korea, apparently.
>>>
>>> Cheers
>>> Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>At 14:04 26/02/2007, you wrote:
>>>>Phil:
>>>>
>>>>I will be on a radio program this (Monday)
>>>>evening debating global warming with Fred
>>>>Singer.
>>>>
>>>>According to Fred's book, Unstoppable Global
>>>>Warming, Every 1,500 Years, the warming we
>>>>have observed is due to the 1500-year DO
>>>>'oscillation', not the greenhouse effect.
>>>>
>>>>But, as far as I know: (1) the DO's are an
>>>>abrupt event, not an oscillation; and (2) the
>>>>DO events ceased at the end of the last ice
>>>>age, about 23K years ago.
>>>>
>>>>Accordingly, what are your thoughts on Fred's hypothesis?
>>>>
>>>>Regards,
>>>>
>>>>Michael
>>>
>>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>University of East Anglia
>>>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>>NR4 7TJ
>>>UK
>>>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Prof. Phil Jones
>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>NR4 7TJ
>UK
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>

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Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Bond-etal-Science97.pdf"

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Bond_etal-Science01.pdf"

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