date: Thu, 4 Jan 2007 12:11:18 -0000
from: "Jenkins, Geoff" <geoff.jenkinsatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: Some help need if possible
to: "Mitchell, John FB \(Chief Scientist\)" <john.f.mitchellatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
Can you throw any light on the source of the lower panel in fig 7.1
(page 202) of the first (and best) IPCC science report? As a champion
of all things palaeo I guess you would have been "involved" in using it?
Good to see you and Catriona last week - Happy New Year.
From: Warrilow, David (GA) [mailto:David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk]
Sent: 04 January 2007 10:50
To: 'Phil Jones'
Cc: Jenkins, Geoff; Geoff Jenkins (E-mail 3)
Subject: RE: Some help need if possible
I know the DoE booklet you mean - one of the first we produced.
In fact I have just found the 3d Edition and it includes the said
graphs. But I am sure the diagrams came from one of the sources
mentioned. In fact the first version of the booklet was prepared by
Geoff Jenkins, so he may know the specific source - Geoff? - the diagram
is Figure 7.1 in the WG1 in the first IPCC report.
From: Phil Jones [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org]
Sent: 04 January 2007 10:00
To: David Warrilow; Warrilow, David (GA)
Subject: Re: Some help need if possible
Thanks. I've looked at the 1979 version and there is something like
the figure in it (Figure 45 in the book). It is different as it has
20th century clearly warmer than the MWP. I will see if I can
find someone who has the 1986 edition (in case it is different).
Imbrie and Imbrie say they adapted Lamb (1969), but I can easily
find this - and it isn't there, so is quite an adaption! I think it
come from Hubert's 'English' temperature history!
I recall a Dept of the Environment report from about 1988/89,
see Chris's email and this is his memory as well. Can you
have one further think? I spoke to Chris again yesterday about
the 2007 forecast. I'm now trying to get people to contact the
Met Office. I just spoke to the Independent for their New Year's
Day issue about what 2007 might be like. With a moderate
El Nino there is a good chance it will be warmer than 1998.
Back to the Figure.
The skeptics keep referring to this curve, saying it was
in the First IPCC report, but then disappeared in the SAR and
TAR. The SAR had Bradley and Jones (1993) and the TAR
Mann et al (1998, 1999, plus other papers) both of which quantified
the first time. They keep saying that IPCC has lost the MWP, so
just trying to show that the 1990 version wasn't based on
anything more than what Lamb used to call 'analyst's opinion'.
He seems to have liked this phrase and used it in a number
At 21:46 03/01/2007, David Warrilow wrote:
>I can't be sure but I think the original diagram is from Imbrie and
>Imbrie, John and Katherine Palmer Imbrie. Ice ages: Solving the
>Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1979, 1986
>ISBN 0-89490-020-X; ISBN 0-89490-015-3; ISBN 0-674-44075-7. p. 25
>You may have it in your library. I am afraid I don't have it to hand,
>----- Original Message ----- From: "Warrilow, David (GA)"
>To: "'Phil Jones'" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>Sent: Wednesday, January 03, 2007 4:56 PM
>Subject: RE: Some help need if possible
>>I do recall your request but as I did not have a AR1 report was unable
>>to check what figure you meant. I have a copy at home so will check.
>>From: Phil Jones [mailto:email@example.com]
>>Sent: 02 January 2007 16:25
>>To: Warrilow, David (GA)
>>Subject: Some help need if possible
>> I tried sending this in November. See my email and the one from
>> Chris Folland. Do you know which Dept of the Environment report this
>> figure in the first IPCC report came from.
>>>I have been asked this several times. This diagram came via David
>>>Warrilow based on a Dept of the Environment document I never saw. It
>>>came in at the Government Review. It was very schematic - I was just
>>>given the diagram which seemed qualitatively reasonable at the time
>>>so it was put in - remember there was no paleosection in 1990 as such
>>>(this decision was debated at the originating Shepperton meeting I
>>>think) but UK wanted something in at the last knockings. Nothing
>>>quantitative existed at the time. The diagram says its schematic of
>>>I was not a lead author of the SAR chapter - I escaped to the Climate
>>>Models - Evaluation chapter! Neville Nicholls is your man there I
>>>Prof. Chris Folland
>>>Head of Climate Variability Research
>>>Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United
>>>Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646
>>>Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050
>>> (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)
>>><http://www.metoffice.gov.uk> Fellow of the Met Office
>>>Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of
>>>From: Phil Jones [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org]
>>>Sent: 09 November 2006 10:19
>>>To: Folland, Chris
>>>Subject: A long time ago ....
>>> > Chris,
>>> As a result of a PAGES/CLIVAR meeting on the last few
>>> the workshop group are writing a summary paper. Given the somewhat
>>> renewed (by skeptics) interest in Fig 7.1 of the First IPCC
>>> you recall where the schematic of the last 1000 years came from.
>>> My recollection is Dept Of Environment 'glossy' (pre DETR and
>>> from about 1989. Are you able to track this down? I just need the
>>> source. I think it is a schematic - i.e. not based on data.
>>> In the SAR, you referred to the paper by Bradley and Jones
>>> which was based on decadal data from 10 or 12 proxy records.
>>> The figure was shown in the background info to the awful piece
>>> in the Sunday Telegraph last weekend. In the background Monckton
>>> replotted the curve, said it was Europe (and then gave it the
>>> temperature of Central England)!
>>> No rush, we can discuss this at the ETCCDI meeting next week.
>>> you then.
>>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>University of East Anglia
>>>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
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Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk