Thursday, April 12, 2012

3355.txt

date: Tue Dec 9 12:58:41 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Re: News release on 2008's climate]
to: David Parker <david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, "Stott, Peter" <peter.stottatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>

David, Peter,
Have added a quote in - something I would have said!
Can you send me the final version, when agreed at your end?
I know we don't want to say this, but if reporters ask about the
1940s/1950s SST issue from the Thompson et al paper in May this
year, we should say we are working on this and expect to submit a
paper in the spring. I guess at most this will increase recent temps
by a maximum of 0.05, but more likely 0.03deg C, but we won't mention
a figure.
Cheers
Phil

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Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: News release on 2008's climate]
From: David Parker <david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
To: "Jones, Phil" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
Cc: "Stott, Peter" <peter.stottatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
Date: Tue, 09 Dec 2008 12:16:19 +0000
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Phil
Thanks. We've decided to use 2000-2008 because that makes the later
period a year longer. Here is the draft as it now stands: do you want a
CRU quote in it?
David
On Tue, 2008-12-09 at 09:50 +0000, Phil Jones wrote:
>
> Peter, David,
> I thought it would be from model runs with all and with just
> natural forcing.
> I just wanted to make sure you had the runs and the calculations to
> back
> up the statements. The numbers seem and sound right.
> As for the decades, it is back to the old chestnut of when a decade
> ends and a new one begins - and there wasn't a year 0! I wanted
> a statement about the nineties versus the noughties, but I think
> the decades end with the years ending in 0, so 2000 was the last
> year of the 1990s. It is a pedantic point, so I'm happy to use
> either,
> as it won't make any difference.
>
> We just need the statement in to indicate that the present decade
> is
> warmer than the previous by the amount expected (0.16).
>
> I've just received the 'Avoiding dangerous climate change' doc that
> Vicky
> prepared for Poznan.
>
> That has in the following bit of text.
>
> Some commentators have suggested that global arming has stopped. This
> is not the case. The evidence is clear - in the long term, global
> temperatures are
> rising, and humans are largely responsible for this rise.
>
> Global warming does not mean that each year will be warmer that the
> last -
> natural phenomena mean that some years will be much warmer and others
> cooler.
> The El Nino in 1998 gave rise to a record-breaking warm year and the
> La Nina
> in 2007 and 2008 led to temporary cooling. Despite this, 11 of the
> last 13 years
> are the warmest ever on record.
>
> We are saying this in slightly different words.
>
> We are still on for a Dec 15/16 release. I can get the UEA press
> office on
> this for the East Anglian region next week, with you doing the
> nationals.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
>
> At 15:56 08/12/2008, Peter Stott wrote:
> > All,
> >
> > A slightly revised version following earlier comments.
> > The Press Office will want to press-ify it - I imagine that could
> > include quotes.
> >
> > Nikos has calculated from model runs with all vs models runs with
> > natural how much warmer we are now relative to pre-industrial and
> > comes
> > to about 0.68C for last decade which taking the ongoing trends into
> > account means approx 0.75C warmer at present than we would have
> > been.
> > The naturally forced model is pretty flat with some natural warming
> > early in the 20th century but volcanic cooling later on.
> >
> > Don't we want to compare the noughties with the nineties (ie
> > 1990-1999
> > vs 2000-2008) rather than 2001-2008 average versus the 1991-2000
> > average ?
> >
> > Peter
> >
> > On Fri, 2008-12-05 at 17:29 +0000, David Parker wrote:
> > > Peter, Gareth
> > >
> > > Phil Jones has made comments below on attribution aspects of the
> > draft
> > > press release - maybe we can discuss revised wording on Monday or
> > > Tuesday. My first attempt is attached.
> > >
> > > David
> > > email message attachment, "Forwarded message - Re: News release on
> > > 2008's climate"
> > > On Fri, 2008-12-05 at 17:29 +0000, David Parker wrote:
> > > > David,
> > > > A few comments on the draft - having got back from
> > Cambridge.
> > > >
> > > > First 2 paras OK.
> > > >
> > > > Para 3 - need to look at the longish sentence. The 0.75 deg C
> > is
> > > > the problem here. In CH 3 we said there was about this warming
> > from
> > > > 1907-2006 (and also with the last 5/6 years wrt 1850-99).
> > Anyway
> > > > the 0.75 implies all 20th century warming is down to us. So
> > without
> > > > anthropogenic forcing now we would be as cold as it was about
> > 1920.
> > > >
> > > > Some of the warming is natural. What you need to compare is a
> > > > model run with all forcing and one with only natural forcing.
> > I reckon
> > > > this difference would be nearer 0.5 to 0.6.
> > > >
> > > > I'd like you to emphasize the need to look at decadal-scale
> > values -
> > > > as Peter seems to have done in the Guardian. We do have short
> > memories
> > > > as Myles says
> > > >
> > > > [4]http://www.scenta.co.uk/nature/news/cit/1737645/-008-will-be-
> > coolest-year-of-the-decade.htm
> > > >
> > > > Another way to do this is to look at the 2001-2008 average
> > versus
> > > > the 1991-2000 average.
> > > > Maybe we did this last year - I've a short memory!
> > > >
> > > > Cheers
> > > > Phil
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > At 17:45 04/12/2008, you wrote:
> > > > >Phil
> > > > >
> > > > >Thanks.
> > > > >
> > > > >If December is cold, CET could be the lowest since 1991, but
> > this may
> > > > >not be certain as soon as Dec 16th. So I haven't included it.
> > Likewise
> > > > >annual precipitation may be unexceptional if December is dry.
> > We have of
> > > > >course included the UK in a large file we sent to WMO and it
> > will get
> > > > >into the BAMS review of 2008 and the Weather paper. But if you
> > wish to
> > > > >include a UK paragraph, feel free to make suggestions!
> > > > >
> > > > >There will be a separate 2009 prediction release in early
> > January.
> > > > >
> > > > >Have a good time in Cambridge,
> > > > >
> > > > >David
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >On Thu, 2008-12-04 at 17:19 +0000, Phil Jones wrote:
> > > > > > David,
> > > > > > Thanks. I'll look at this tomorrow. In Cambridge
> > tomorrow
> > > > > > - with Rob/Philip, some sort of ACRE meeting. Will get
> > comments
> > > > > > back over the weekend.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Are you planning the longer press release with more
> > graphs and
> > > > > > UK values?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Also will there be the 2009 prediction press release
> > early in
> > > > > > the New Year?
> > > > > > If there is I'll know not to say anything about that in
> > mid December!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Cheers
> > > > > > Phil
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > At 17:02 04/12/2008, you wrote:
> > > > > > >Phil, Cathy, Chris
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >Here is a draft of our proposed press release on 2008's
> > global climate -
> > > > > > >inputs came mainly from Peter Stott and John Kennedy.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >Comments welcome. It is due for release on Tuesday December
> > 16th after
> > > > > > >the WMO press release.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >Thanks
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >David
> > > > > > >--
> > > > > > >David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road
> > EXETER EX1 3PB UK
> > > > > > >E-mail: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
> > > > > > >Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681
> > http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones
> > > > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> > > > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> > > > > > University of East Anglia
> > > > > > Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> > > > > > NR4 7TJ
> > > > > > UK
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >--
> > > > >David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER
> > EX1 3PB UK
> > > > >E-mail: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
> > > > >Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681
> > http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
> > > >
> > > > Prof. Phil Jones
> > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> > > > University of East Anglia
> > > > Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> > > > NR4 7TJ
> > > > UK
> > > >
> >
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

> > > >
> > --
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > Dr. Peter Stott
> > Head Climate Monitoring and Attribution
> > Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
> > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613 Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615
> > Mobile: 07753880683
> > E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk [5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
> > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> >
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

>
--
David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK
E-mail: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 http:www.metoffice.gov.uk

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

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