Friday, April 13, 2012

3395.txt

date: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 19:03:32 -0500
from: Mike MacCracken <mmaccracatXYZxyzcast.net>
subject: Re: More on WW II Temperatures
to: David Parker <david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, Phil Jones <P.JonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

Hi Phil and David--I am at the AGU meeting in San Francisco and was at a
session on El Nino variability. I was struck by the data record shown for
the Nino3 region, which shows no El Nino in 1944 (there apparently was a few
year warm period centered around 1941), which I think the NH record shows as
the very warmest year (or was it 1943) in that period until the 1980s. I
recall hearing that the explanation for that very warm year was that there
must have been a very strong El Nino that year--but that is clearly not the
case in the record that the ENSO community is using. To get such a strong
global/NH warming, it must be really warm somewhere--and it is not the Nino3
region nor over the US.

I am wondering if there are year by year (even month by month) temperature
anomaly maps available on the Web to look at somewhere, for must be a very
interesting anomaly map. [My plotting capabilities are pretty limited.]

Best, Mike MacCracken


Thanks--just a thought. It would sure also be nice if the reanalyses could
go back to before WWII in order to be able to look at the
consistency/inconsistency of changes over land and ocean. Looking at the US
land temperature record, there is not a warming during WWII comparable to
what seems to be happening over the ocean--it just seems more than
coincidental that virtually the only region and time where the IPCC
detection-attribution analysis showed inconsistency was over the ocean
during WWII. I have not seen the results of that analysis by ocean basin,
but that would sure seem interesting to look at in order to perhaps focus an
effort to look very closely at what was going on--unusual weather or an
inhomogeneity in the data.

Best, Mike


On 12/15/08 5:00 AM, "David Parker" <david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk> wrote:

> Mike
>
> Phil Jones thanks you for your message - his university mail server
> won't let him reply to comcast.net.
>
> I doubt whether the effect you mention would systematically bias SST and
> marine air temperature but it could increase the uncertainties so I have
> passed this idea on to John Kennedy here and to Liz Kent at
> eckatXYZxyz.soton.ac.uk who is analysing the marine air temperatures.
>
> David
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>>>> User-Agent: Microsoft-Entourage/12.14.0.081024
>>>> Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2008 21:47:11 -0500
>>>> Subject: On corrections during World War II
>>>> From: Mike MacCracken <mmaccracatXYZxyzcast.net>
>>>> To: Phil Jones <P.JonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>>>> Thread-Topic: On corrections during World War II
>>>> Thread-Index: AclczRi/1V/mstaz/U+rMHL8VKEkaw==
>>>> X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00
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> UEA:default,base:default)
>>>> X-Canit-Stats-ID: 14397679 - 9dd86b7611c1 (trained as not-spam)
>>>> X-Antispam-Training-Forget:
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>>>> X-Antispam-Training-Spam:
>>>> X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 139.222.131.184
>>>>
>>>> Hi Phil--I was reviewing a paper and noting the differences
>> during World War
>>>> II and thought up another potential bias that I wonder if is
>> being corrected
>>>> for in the ship measurements. Namely, what I am wondering is if
>> account was
>>>> taken of the likely different loading (and so height of
>> measurement--for air
>>>> and water) of the ships as they went east and west. Basically, the
> ships
>>>> were heavy laden going east and virtually empty coming back, and so
> there
>>>> might well be a need to correct the observations accordingly.
>>>>
>>>> Just a thought--as the only place the models and observations
>> seem different
>>>> is over the ocean during WWII.
>>>>
>>>> Best, Mike
>>>
>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>> University of East Anglia
>>> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>> NR4 7TJ
>>> UK
>>>
>>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>>>


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