Saturday, April 14, 2012

3426.txt

cc: arnell_Nigel,e.tompkins
date: Fri Feb 27 17:32:34 2004
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: climate change, THC and fuel poverty
to: <dresnesatXYZxyz.org.uk>

Dear Simon,
This is an interesting project. It has relevance with at least 3 of our Tyndall Centre
projects:
- domestic tradeable quotas led by Kevin Anderson
[1]http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/summary_t3_22.shtml
- the 40% house led by Brenda Boardman
[2]http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/summary_t2_23.shtml
- vulnerability to rapid climate change led by Nigel Arnell at Southampton.
I do indeed have some views on what you are proposing, most notably rather worried by the
implicit weight of 0.33 you give to cooling scenarios! This I do not believe is justified.
I would like to discuss some of these issues with you. I suggest you try phoning me next
Friday - 5th March.
If it is OK with you I will forward this information to my colleagues running the
vulnerability project. This may have some relevance for them.
Regards,
Mike
At 16:06 23/02/2004 +0000, you wrote:

Dear Professor Hulme
I'm starting work on a new ESRC project on climate change and fuel poverty. The
idea is to look at what might happen to fuel poverty in 2030 with various scenarios for
climate change, energy efficiency of buildings, price of energy and development of
incomes. I've attached the project description which will give you more information
about it.
At the start of the project, I'm consulting a range of experts. I identified you as an
expert on rapid climate change. I'm looking for three scenarios for each of the four
dimensions. For climate change, we want a 'likely' warming scenario, a rapid
warming scenario and a scenario with cooling due to early collapse of the THC.
I've read your Tyndall paper and I know you think it is very unlikely to happen soon.
Just how unlikely? Do you think the back-of-the-envelope estimates I have suggested
for the magnitude are reasonable or too optimistic or pessimistic? Can you point me
in the direction of other literature on the subject? We're particularly interested in
the
seasonal pattern of warming or cooling because that influences the effect on enegy
consumption, as well as the degree or warming or cooling.
Who do you think would be other good people to talk about rapid climate change,
particularly the effects of collapse of the THC?
I'd like to talk about these issues with you, but I though I should ask you to think
about it first. Can I call you to discuss it? When would be a good time over the next
few days?
best regards
Simon
--
Dr Simon Dresner
Environment Group
Policy Studies Institute
100 Park Village East
London NW1 3SR
tel: 020 7468 2265
fax: 020 7388 0914
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