from: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Away from my desk Re: NERC Consortium Proposal
to: "chris turney" <turneychrisatXYZxyzil.com>
Chris have now read and mused on outline - generally ok but a few things to ponder on -
need to be clear that this sort of work is incremental - i.e. that not every (or any)
proposed data/model project can really produce "comprehensive" data or answer to question
of what is effective climate sensitivity -- but we are at a stage now where we need to
move beyond the IPCC situation (chapters 6 and 10) to one where we can update critical data
sets or use recent understanding of their uncertainty to make a significant move forward in
attempts to constrain likely range of climate futures . In other words timeliness and
group expertise come together now.
We do not put enough focus on the practical way we have the power to achieve this last
Saying we will reconstruct circulation (implying surface pressure maps) is too vague and
ambitious , unless we clarify that this more feasible for extended 19th century
(instrumental) data base - perhaps , at least for proxies , only attempts to reconstruct
aspects of circulation may work (trade winds, monsoon variability (ITCZ), Arctic and
Antarctic Oscillation ). We have no hope of doing anything genuine and useful for Africa.
May nee to expend some funds on updating series in other ares (as said above) - In Russia ,
a lot can be done along these lines for little money - and anyway , given the importance of
high-latitude (especially Arctic) in terms of proxy input to syntheses and in terms of
model projections (and contribution to overall warming estimates) , I believe we should
stress the need to work on these ares just as much as the other (southern and
lower-latitude) areas you single out. In fact the proposal (even for a consortium bid)
might appear over ambitious / vague with respect to climate variable focus.
Is there a reason for not including Simon Tett among Edinburgh names - he has expertise in
running unified model ?
At 12:32 09/03/2009, you wrote:
I'm afraid I'm away in Copenhagen for most of this week and will only
be able to check my email intermittently. I'll be back in on Friday 13
March and will get to your message then. If you are contacting me
regarding a media issue, please call the University of Exeter Press
Office on 01392 262062; they have my contact details and will be able
to help you reach me. Alternativeley, if it's urgent and you have my
mobile number, I can be reached by phone or text.
With best wishes,
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.