date: Tue, 20 Feb 2007 07:38:42 -0500
subject: Re: Climate Audit and our paper from 1990
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
I remember this paper. Many years ago (around 1991), I brought the
annual temperature from the western USSR rural network data set to the
US and offered it to the first compendium of the GEWEX data on CD that
was compiled by Dr. Shiffer. I honestly do not remember if they
included it or not (only one region, only annual temperature data, while
there were so "many" global data sets around). But, what is sure we have
never made secret from this data and (if I'll be lucky) I can try to
restore and update the data set to 2000 for Russia and/or ask my Russian
and Ukrainian colleagues to help to update it to the presence.
By reading the text of the Mr. McIntire I simply do not understand his
point. A slight difference in the region selected will generate a
slight difference in the trends. So what? We showed that there are no
large differences in temperature trends BETWEEN rural and major globally
used data sets. Later (in 1991), Vica Koknaeva and I published our
analyses for the Western USSR separately (both available in English):
Groisman P.Ya., Koknaeva V.V.: 1991, "The influence of urbanization on
the estimate of the mean air temperature change in the 20th century over
the USSR and USA territories obtained by the State Hydrological
Institute network", Ch.9 in Parker D.E. (editor) "O b s e r v e d C l i
m a t e V a r i a t i o n s a n d C h a n g e: Contributions in
support of Section 7 of the 1990 IPCC scientific assessment". Publ. by
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 1X.1-1X.11.
Groisman P.Ya., Koknaeva V.V.: 1991, "On the urbanization influence on
the global warming estimates", M e t e o r o l o g y a n d H y d r o
l o g y , No.9, 5-11 (in Russian, in English in Soviet Meteorology and
P.S. In Russia, we have a proverb: "Na kazhdyi chih ne na
zdrastvueshsya". A vague translation is: "You will never be able to say
enough "God bless you" phrases for each coughing around".
----- Original Message -----
From: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
Date: Tuesday, February 20, 2007 4:01 am
Subject: Climate Audit and our paper from 1990
> Dear All,
> Remember this paper !
> Jones, P.D., Groisman, P.Ya., Coughlan, M., Plummer, N., Wang, W-C.
> Karl, T.R., 1990: Assessment of urbanization effects in time
> series of
> surface air temperature over land. Nature 347, 169-172.
> Well on this web site, the work is being hotly debated!
> Their renewed interest seems to stem from modifications NCDC are
> making to USHCN and as I hear from Tom Peterson to their global and
> hemispheric averages. Ridiculous statements are being made about
> the NCDC work modifying data to make recent warming greater - and
> more like the CRU data! On the Russian part of our study, the old
> chestnut of
> temperature data being modified in Soviet days to make the data
> cooler during the 1930s and 1940s! Also the Russian network
> failing apart when
> the Soviet Union came to an end.
> No doubt this will surface somewhere when the Chapter from AR4
> comes out. We still refer to this paper, but there are more recent
> studies by
> Tom Peterson and David Parker. These studies and some earlier
> ones by
> Tom Karl are still the only ones to look at the issue over large
> Anyway, I'd just thought I'd warn you all in case they ever
> get their act
> together (and stop their diatribes).
> I'd thought I'd also welcome you to the Hockey Team (but
> you're all
> reserves) - to get onto the ice, you have to do some paleo work!
> Wei-Chung therefore has a good chance of playing some day.
> It's also good that we're all still working hard in the field,
> most of us
> writing less unfortunately as we're higher up the ladder!
> 1990 seems a long time ago ! By the way, I do have the data
> from the study on disk! I was wise even when Steve McIntyre first
> requested the data many years ago. I think I could replicate the
> study if I had that rare commodity - time.
> The penultimate paragraph of the 1990 paper was mainly written by
> Tom - thanks. It even has pre-IPCC definitions of likelihood!
> Neil - can you pass this on with my best wishes to Mike.
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ