Wednesday, April 25, 2012

3485.txt

cc: "C G Kilsby" <c.g.kilsbyatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, <S.L.BarratXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "H J Fowler" <h.j.fowleratXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, "Richard Dawson" <richard.dawsonatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, "Brown Virginia Miss (ENV)" <Virginia.BrownatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
date: Fri, 9 Nov 2007 13:51:54 -0000
from: "Jim Hall" <jim.hallatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>
subject: RE: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects
to: "Clare Goodess" <C.GoodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>


Dear Clare, Phil, Stuart, Hayley et al.

Sorry it has taken me so long to get notes out from the meeting with
Phil et al on 26 October. In this message I will try to summarise the
methodology we are proposing and then address the timescale,
responsibilities and financial matters for implementation for the
Tyndall Cities work.


The background to this work is:

In the Scorchio project Stuart Barr is developing a method for obtaining
spatial temperature patterns in urban areas from satellite data. Clare,
Chris and Phil are extending the Betwixt weather generator and peturbing
it with outputs from the new Had runs. We wish to combine the spatial
and temporal perspectives in order generate spatial-temporal scenarios
(the extent to which this needs to be developed in Scorchio is open to
interpretation in the propsal).
We wish to apply this same approach to London for Tyndall. We have an
allocation of 17k in 07/08 and 17k in 08/09 for CRU to contribute to
this work. We have plans to direct some RA time onto this in Newcastle
for Stuart's area of the work (see below).


The Hadley Centre runs:

I just had a very useful conversation with Mark McCarthy at HC. His
programme is as follows:
Run 1: Transient run (1950 to 2100) A1B scenario with const
anthropogenic heat source (7W/m2 for Manc). To be done "for Jan 08"...
Vague about whether this would be beginning or end of Jan.
Run 2: Same run with linearly increasing heat flux. Not yet specified
what this will be, but representing quite a strong increase in heat
flux. Could be run at about the same time as Run 1 i.e. Jan next year.
Run 3: To be decided at a Scorchio stakeholder meeting in March. Could
be midway between 1 and 2 i.e. some adaptation.

The urban anthropogenic heat fluxes will be applied for all urban areas
in the HadRM3 domain (i.e. we get London as well as Manc and Shef). He
was originally intending to apply the Manc heat flux (i.e. 7W/m2) for
all urban areas, but we discussed the possibility of applying something
different (higher) for London and he agreed that this would be possible.
In London the grid cells allow some differentiation between inner
(Westminster has 60-100W/m2) and outer (about 10W/m2) London.

The land surface tiling is based on 9 surface types, urban being one of
them.

He can save daily pressure data for weather type classification if
required.

He mentioned the LUCID work and was enthusiastic about the Tyndall
application providing a comparison for London with the the LUCID outputs
(on a 1km grid 100km*100km but can only be run for 1 year due to
computational cost).


Outline of the proposed methodology:

For present climate:
Newcastle: Obtain AVHRR satellite images. Process to obtain temperature
patterns for each satellite image.
UEA: Obtain weather station data for London (Heathrow, St James,
Holburn, and couple of outside London sites: Gatwick? Others?).
Calibrate weather generator (with Chris K). Establish method for scaling
Newcastle temperature patterns from selected weather station data.
Cross-validate with other weather stations. Examine the improvement
gained if the scaling relationship is conditioned on WG persistence
variables (WW, WD, DW, DD). This will deliver hindcast spatial patterns
of temperature (for comparison with any other observations that my
become available through LUCID) and synthetic time series patterns of
present day temperature.

For future climate scenarios:
We have three anthropogenic heat source scenarios from Hadley (runs 1 to
3 above). Because the runs are transient and are based on the UKCIP08
ensemble, for any desired climate scenario and time slice from the
UKCIP08 ensemble we can match the non-urban temperatures to extract the
corresponding time slice from these new urban runs (though we won't be
able to access the highest climate changes even at 2100).
UEA: Extract corresponding temperature change factors and other stats
for WG from Had runs. Run WG and scale spatial temperature patterns as
previously, conditioning as appropriate on persistence variables.
Newcastle: Develop scenarios of changing land use and anthropogenic heat
sources. Use these to modify temperature patterns used in the scenario
generation.

Hope that makes sense.


Next steps:
UEA: confirm funding arrangement with Virginia Brown. Tyndall Phase 2 is
pre-FEC so the funds can all go to Colin's salary.
UEA: confirm that methodology makes sense and confirm timescales for
delivery, given Had proposed timescale for RCM runs (above).
UEA: start assembling weather station data and calibrating weather
generator
Stuart: start assembling AVHRR images and processing temperatures
Jim: email Mark McCarthy to confirm arrangements
Jim: confirm UCL Lucid heat flux estimate for London (I'll see Mike
Davies on 22 Nov)

Is that all?



Best regards

Jim




> -----Original Message-----
> From: Clare Goodess [mailto:C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk]
> Sent: 01 November 2007 19:15
> To: Jim Hall
> Subject: Fwd: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects
>
> Hi Jim
>
> Phil, Colin and I met today to discuss the Tyndall urban work
> - and it sounds like you had a useful meeting with Phil last week.
>
> One thing that emerged from our meeting today, is how to
> handle the financial aspects. Is the money earmarked for us
> in the Newcastle budget? Will this be a subcontract?
> Presumably it will be full economic costs, but hopefully we
> can ensure that the bulk goes on Colin's salary rather than
> having to cost in Phil's time.
>
> Is it Virginia Brown we need to liase with here?
>
> Best wishes, Clare
>
>
> >X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.1.0.9
> >Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2007 09:44:14 +0000
> >To: c.goodess@uea.ac.uk,c.harpham@uea.ac.uk
> >From: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
> >Subject: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects
> >
> > Clare,
> > The attached is a summary of discussions I had with Jim
> Hall and
> > others last Friday in Newcastle.
> >
> > Cheers
> > Phil
> >
> >
> >Prof. Phil Jones
> >Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> >School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> >University of East Anglia
> >Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> >NR4 7TJ
> >UK
> >-------------------------------------------------------------
> ----------
> >-----
> >
> >
>
> Dr Clare Goodess
> Climatic Research Unit
> School of Environmental Sciences
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
>
> Tel: +44 -1603 592875
> Fax: +44 -1603 507784
> Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm
>
>
>
>

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