date: Fri Jan 28 17:04:11 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: FW: Crok Story on Hocky Stick - English
to: "Folland, Chris" <chris.follandatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, JOLLIFFE IAN <email@example.com>
Have you seen this web site? http://www.realclimate.org/ Perhaps you should
on this issue.
Raising and lowering a series (i.e. changing the base period) won't affect the
correlation matrix. So all the work CRU has done in this regard is unaffected
I also think it shouldn't make much difference to PCs calculated with the
covariance matrix. It might change the order of some.
This appears to relate to Mike's calculation of PCs using SVD. I'm not good
enough at Maths to know why.
Mike does answer all this on the above web site. Also the paper they mention
coming out in GRL was reviewed by hydrologists. It seems you can specify
an editor and if the editor doesn't know the subject they can get it reviewed or
send to one who does. The editor here had an agenda.
The web page is interesting, but whatever you do don't delve too deeply. It
will just eat into your time and in the end be completely useless. Ray Bradley
wanted something put there on 2004's temperatures. I gave him the WMO
press release from mid-Dec04. Some of the comments on that are ridiculous.
It has generated quite a few. The whole web site has got a lot of interest,
but it is only for those with time on their hands.
At 16:32 28/01/2005, Folland, Chris wrote:
If you base the data anomalies in an EOF analysis on a recent
climatological period, does this really change the shape of the time
series compared to the full period. This is a common method due to data
limitations. This seems to be one key criticism of the Mann hockey stick
(not the only one).
Professor Chris Folland
Head of Climate Variability Research
Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org
Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United
Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646
Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050
(International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)<http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk