date: Fri, 24 Jan 2003 18:27:31 +0000
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: RAPID modelling subgroup
to: Meric Srokosz <firstname.lastname@example.org>,email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org,email@example.com,firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com,firstname.lastname@example.org,email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org,B.Turrell@marlab.ac.uk,email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org,email@example.com,firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com,firstname.lastname@example.org,email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org,email@example.com
Although I was not present during this earlier discussion, might I now feed in a comment to
this discussion from an "end-user" perspective (as we - Tyndall - have been called!), that
a focused (i.e., delivery-led) modelling activity that helped address one, two or all three
of the IPCC TAR cited deficiencies (as mentioned in my presentation on Wednesday to the
kick-off meeting), namely:
"whether an irreversible collapse in the THC is likely or not,
or at what threshold it might occur
and what the climate implications could be. "
would be a valuable contribution of RAPID to the policy/scenario community, both in the UK
and internationally. A number of modelling strategies might help deliver this of course -
from full complexity to low complexity models, or mixed-mode modelling - but I think it
would be a very useful exercise.
At 12:21 23/01/03 +0000, Meric Srokosz wrote:
Dear Steering Committee
One of the decisions made at the last SC meeting was to put aside
�0.5M for modelling activities, but there was no time to firm up what
this money is to be used for. This e-mail is to try to do that "firming
up" (apologies for not getting to this sooner, as a number of you
have asked me what is happening).
The state of play is as follows:
a) I have approached Julia, Jochem, Paul and Richard to be members of the
subgroup and they have agreed.
b) from the discussion at the meeting, I think that the task of the subgroup
1) to ensure that a suitable hierarchy of models is available for
use within RAPID (this particularly related to objective 5 of the
2) to ensure that the various modelling activities in RAPID are
c) with regard to data / model synthesis (objective 4), the data subgroup
recommended (and the SC agreed the recommendation at the last meeting)
that this should be one focus of the 2nd AO. Therefore, it seems that the
modelling subgroup should not have a strong emphasis on this at this stage.
I guess that the SC needs to approve the subgroup membership and agree
that the proposed tasks (b above) are the correct ones for the group to
pursue on behalf of the SC and RAPID.
It would be helpful to have your response / views by Thursday 6th Feb
(2 weeks today), so that I can press on with arranging a subgroup meeting
soon and get this aspect of RAPID underway.
Dr. Meric Srokosz, Room 254/43,Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC)
Empress Dock, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Tel:+44-(0)23-80596414 (direct line); Fax: +44-(0)23-80596400
e-mail: masatXYZxyz.soton.ac.uk or M.Srokosz@soc.soton.ac.uk
Science Coordinator NERC Rapid Climate Change Programme